Tuesday 5th November 2013

An excellent card at Southwell this afternoon and with the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter, our winter really kicks off here. We have three interests, all at Southwell.

1pt each-way double on Khajaaly / Modify, 11/2 / 3/1 generally guaranteed

1.40 Southwell Khajaaly 4pts win @ 6/1 / 11/2 (Generally guaranteed)

Khajaaly is the latest in a long line of horses who have improved for the switch to Michael Appleby. He remains something of a monkey, but his last run was a career best on ratings and it is interesting to note he is able to race off 1lb lower this afternoon. He has not raced at Southwell before, but his sire and dam both have the U.S.A. suffix which is so important for horses at this track (although he himself does not) and he has always been a strong travelling type who struck me as worth a chance at this venue. He will be fitter now than at any stage in his life, thanks to his trainer, and he looks the best handicapped horse here if he does take to the surface. 6/1 is fair and we'll put him in an each-way double with Modify.

2.10 Southwell Wolfwood 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Wolfswood is not by a well known sire but his damsire has produced numerous quality fibresand performers, including the likes of Cardinal Venture. He has an action which suggests he should go well on the surface and his trainer has brought him here along with another horse with the same damsire, who is favourite for the closer on the card. Wolfwood has shown a bit more to date than a casual reading of the formbook suggests, and at a massive price off a mark of OR50 I make him worth a small interest.

2.40 Southwell Modify 4pts win @ 3/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Modify is a short enough price but this is a weak race and I don't think the favourite is up to much. She is by New Approach out of a mare who produced Dubai Hills, possibly the best miler ever to run on this surface on a regular basis. She has a huge stride and ran better than her tailed off finishing position suggests in the fillies' trophy last time out. She had no problem leading the field before stamina became an issue. Her trainer does really well here and, even at a shortish price, she looks too big here and I make her the one to beat.

Profit & loss: day: -13.00 / month: -44.00 / year: +415.50