One for this evening.
4.50 Kempton Silken Express 5pts win @ 7/1 (Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, independets, guaranteed, 13/2 generally guaranteed)
It looks as though Robert Cowell has targeted this race and although she seems the least favoured of the three on jockey bookings, odds compilers make Silken Express the second of the pair, and I make her the pick. The selection is by Speightstown, whose progeny tend to run a bit on their nerves and can sometimes be best when fresh. They are also much better on artificial surfaces, and although the selection hasn't won on polytrack, there is no reason to assume she can't match her fibresand performance first time out this year at Kempton this evening. She ran really well there in a race that looks strong in retrospect (Demora, the runner up, is now rated OR98) and she is well drawn here in stall four. Some of these are better turf horses, but I think the selection might have a fruitful winter ahead of her and can probably improve off OR89. 13/2+ is too big.
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Afternoon bets:
It was nice to get a winner and take a small profit yesterday, and although we took only 2/1 about Richmond we beat S.P. by a serious percentage and our other selection ran third without threatening. Not selections are running abysmally and it's only a matter of time before there are decent points on the board again.
One for this afternoon and a possible bet for Kempton to be released before 4.00pm.
1.00 Lingfield Royal Preserve 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 10/1 (Bet Victor, Coral, guaranteed, 9/1 Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, independents, guaranteed) - WON
Royal Preserve cost 45,000 Guineas and has a decent pedigree to boot, but he hasn't shown that much on the track as yet and has his third run this afternoon at Lingfield. He did show speed at Leicester last time out, and travelled well on the bridle for a long way before sinking in soft ground on the wrong part of the track. This looks a weak maiden bar the favourite and he has breathing issues meaning I'm very happy to take him on at 2/5. The crucial factor here is that the selection is by Duke Of Marmalade, whose progeny have a 19% strike rate on polytrack (actual versus expected ratio a very profitable 1.34) versus an 8% strike rate on turf (a/e a poor 0.62). It is reasonable to expect significant improvement on the surface and David Probert has been riding very well indeed just lately - he has also been profitable to back blind and is 4/12 33% at Lingfield's all weather track this year.
Profit & loss: day: +37.00 / month: -43.80 / year: +421.70
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