5.30 Kempton Truancy 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 11/1 (Paddy Power, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 3rd
This isn't a strong looking maiden when you actually look at the form each horse has achieved, as opposed to sales prices and pedigrees. A few of these might not live up to their price tags, but Truancy has at least seen the track already and I'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt based on that appearance. He showed plenty of speed and looked a really nice mover, but seemed to lose his action and fell in a hole rather quickly after, and was soon eased. He has been off 75 days and I would suggest he has had some sort of minor problem. It is interesting Karl Burke (who got him from Alan Berry) sends him down to Kempton, and Robert Winston is booked to ride. He is bred to go on this surface being a half brother to none other than Delcaration Of War, and his action suggests he should enjoy it. The whole profile of this horse is unusual and I'm not sure if there was some sort of skulduggery going on because he doesn't seem the typical type to be trained by Alan Berry. Either way, he holds a leading chance this evening if he puts it all together, and he looks too big at double figure prices.
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Afternoon bets:
Just one for this afternoon - evening bets will follow before 4.00pm.
2.30 Lingfield If So 5pts win @ 7/2 (Totesport, Betfred, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 10/3 generally guaranteed)
A competitive looking sprint handicap but, all things considered, If So's claims look excellent here. She is 2/2 over course and distance, and posted a lifetime best last time out at Kempton in a race not run to suit where the winner got first run on her under an excellent Adam Kirby ride. There is plenty of pace on here, anda good draw in stall four should mean she only needs normal luck in running to unleash her turn of foot at the end of the contest. I think this is a really good filly who should still be progressive off OR91, and could be better than a handicapper. It wouldn't surprise me to see her at Royal Ascot next year, given her trainer's record with this type of horse, and I would make her closer to 5/2 to win today.
Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -29.55 / year: +435.95
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