8.20 Kempton Man amongst Men 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Bet Victor, Coral, guaranteed) - E/W 2nd
Brian Meehan had a filly who was sales bound outrun massive odds last night at Kempton, and his Man Amongst Men is taken to land the spoils before heading off to for the sales ring in this evening's Nursery under Jamie Spencer. The selection is a really big, scopey horse, and the promise of his Newbury debut was not built upon at Newmarket second time out. He quite clearly didn't act on the track, and it is unusual connections sent him there last time, when he again clearly didn't enjoy running into the dip and lost ground having travelled well into the contest amongst good horses. He is drawn in stall one tonight in a race with little pace, and I think Jamie Spencer might just stack them up and try to send him on in the home straight. Meehan's horses tend to go well on polytrack, and I think the selection might be well handicapped off his current mark. He certainly won't be bothered carrying top weight, and I feel he might just have a class edge on the opposition here.
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Afternoon bets:
Two for this afternoon, evening bets will follow before 5.30pm.
Having thoroughly researched this afternoon's cards, the two best betting opportunities to my mind in terms of the percentage edge we have against the book are both unraced juveniles. I do understand that some may find it to be "against the grain" to support horses who have not raced, but the facts are there for all to see - our bets on such horses in 2013 are in profit to somewhere around the ballpark of 100pts in my estimation, and there is a definite market edge there that isn't being exploited elsewhere. It is important to remember these are not shots in the dark - I spend a great deal of time on pedigree analysis and I'd like to think that bears fruit in the results. One or two results going against you should never turn you off the best opportunities and it's only last week we identified a 66/1 / 50/1 first time out juvenile who almost landed us a huge punt.
2.05 Navan Iveagh Gardens 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 10/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - E/W 2nd
This looks an incredibly bad maiden for a €6,900 prize and a Racing Post Yearling Bonus qualifier. The favourite disappointed last time out and is by Bushranger, whose progeny have a poor record on soft ground. Golden Amber should handle the ground but is flattered by the rating she achieved on her most recent start in my view. Muileata doesn't seem to have gone on since her debut, Go Placidly may not enjoy the ground, and the newcomer Have A Great Day is by Kodiac, whose progeny are also markedly better on good ground. Iveagh Gardens represents a trainer who has sent a two year old to win at Navan already this year, and although his first time out record is moderate, this horse is more precociously bred than many of his juveniles and it would make sense to target this race given that he qualifies for the bonus. Powerful connections and a respectable price tag at the sales would suggest he is a decent type, and he won't have to be much better than that to run into a place or win here. With nothing else making any remote appeal at the prices, a chance is taken on the selection being ready to do himself justice, in which case he should handle the ground better than most being by Mastercraftsman.
2.30 Newmarket Archduchess 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, independents, guaranteed)
The early suggestions are that the progeny of Archipenko are acting very well on soft ground, and a wide margin winner at Yarmouth yesterday who displayed loads of knee action did nothing to harm the theory. Archduchess represents a stable noted for their ability to train good fillies, particularly on rain softened ground, and including first time out. The booking of Seb Sanders and a quiet few quid around for her this morning would suggest she may be up to a decent showing in what looks a below average maiden for this track. I don't fancy the favourite at all, indeed I'd probably place lay her, as she looked a really nervy type on debut and not the sort who would appeal on this soft ground (mixed evidence from her sire but I wasn't taken by her action). The poor ratings achieved by Stybba (10/1) and Wunderkind (12/1) tell you all you need to know about this race and the selection makes far and away the most appeal of the newcomers. 16/1 is too big, and I can see her being backed before the off if she moves well to post.
Profit & loss: day: -1.20 / month: +32.27 / year: +495.27
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