4.30 Kempton Talmada 4pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
I can't have Maria Bella at the prices here and she has to be taken on with Talmada from the Varian yard. The selection is unraced, but I have alluded already this season to the value to be had in backing unraced horses in the right circumstances and I feel this is a decent price in the circumstances. She is extremely well bred, by Cape Cross and related to a couple of very good all weather winners (carries the U.S.A. suffix). Her stable are pretty much carrying all before them in the past weeks, including in all weather maidens, and if anything I expect her price to shorten up before the off. Unless one of the other unraced horses is very good (most of them looks three year olds on pedigree analysis) then I expect Talmada to go close to winning on debut.
6.30 Kempton Dumbfounded 4pts win @ 8/1 (Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 15/2 generally guaranteed)
Dumbfounded is by Vettori, a sire who gets strong stayers on this surface, and I was interested to see the aggressive ride given to him by Richard Hughes at Bath last time out. Connections clearly feel he is a stayer, because he was ridden as if stamina was absolutely no issue over the thirteen furlong trip and he rallied well against two progressive horses once headed. That looked a better race than the division Cabuchon ran in and I can only put the price difference down to Adam Kirby riding the Evans horse here. Lady Herries knows what it takes to train good stayers on this surface, and if the selection is ridden prominently again, I expect him to be close at the finish. He is overpriced at 8/1.
7.30 Kempton Regal Dan 4pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Regal Dan is a strong travelling horse who is related to numerous all weather winners and it is a wonder his connections have not tried him on this surface yet. His sire's progeny are markedly better on the surface (15% strike rate) and looking at his dam's side he is related to some good polytrack winners. He looks very well handicapped to me and is much better than his finishing position suggests from Newmarket last time out - he was hampered a couple of times and had no luck in the run. The booking of Tom Queally is a positive and he can put it up to the short priced favourite here.
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Afternoon bets:
One selection for this afternoon. Evening bets will follow before 4.00pm.
3.05 Nottingham Commanche 1pt each-way AND 2pt win @ 11/1 (Betfred, Bet Victor, Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)
Commanche has been a model of consistency since being claimed by Chris Dwyer in June. He has arguably improved for his new handler, but I don't think he has reached the ceiling of his abilities yet and he may have more improvement in him on soft ground. He had done most of his winning on good ground before his Windsor victory in a claimer last time out, but his one run on a straight track on good to soft was really interesting. It came at Doncaster, where he pulled clear of the field with Sir Pedro. He was made favourite for a very good sprint at Leicester next time but things didn't pan out on better ground. His win at Windsor showed he handles soft ground well and I've never seen him look better - he was most impressive physically and seems to be thriving. The return to a straight five furlongs on soft is taken to suit him, and I think there is more to come off a handicap mark of OR81. He seems to be well drawn and has the assistance of a top claimer who takes 3lb off his back.
Profit & loss: day: -16.00 / month: -60.00 / year: +399.50
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