Thursday 12th December 2013

A nice winner this afternoon.

One for this evening.

5.50 Kempton Artemis 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (Bet Victor, William Hill, guaranteed, 28/1 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

(Total stake 4pts)

The bookmakers have this at the mercy of the favourite Dutchartcollector, who has been well punted and looks a fairly typical handicap set up, typical enough of his stable. However, I don't think he is any sort of certainty even in such a low grade contest, and I'm inclined to take him on. Conrad Allen did well last winter from only a few runners, and he tended to have his horses ready first time up - Azma won on debut, Rouge Nouage on his second start, with a break of a couple of months after his first start. That would suggest Artemis might be ready to put her best foot forward this evening, as would the retaining of Andrea Atzeni as jockey. The selection showed a glimmer of promise at this track over six furlongs on her second start, travelling keenly off a very slow pace and going on well at the finish having been outpaced in the straight. Her pedigree is a mixture of speed and stamina - sire Marju tends to get milers and middle distance horses, while there is more speed on the dam's side including some all weather influence. If the selection has progressed and learned to race more evenly during the 88 days she has been absent, I don't see any reason why she shouldn't be involved here off a mark of OR55. She is just as likely to bomb out, and this could well go down as a dud call, but the stable did have big priced winners last winter and they don't often back their horses. 28/1+ is too big in this company.

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Afternoon bets:

After the loss of two good cards yesterday, we thankfully have some excellent jumps racing today and indeed for the rest of the week. We have three interests this afternoon, and possible evening bets to follow before 4.00pm.

1.50 Newcastle Zaru 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 11/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed) - WON

Zaru has some really good course form, and was in the process of adding to it when falling earlier this year over three miles. He fell on his next start, breaking a blood vessel in the process, but was much better at Carlisle last time out on his seasonal debut. He was made favourite that day and it seems connections feel he is better than OR118. He is dropped back to two miles today, but he won his maiden hurdle over course and distance and hasn't looked short of speed or jumping fluency when on song. This doesn't look a strong 0-120 and if he pops around okay, he is likely to be finishing much better than anything else. I don't think Rocking Blues deserves to be as short as he is, and Ballybriggan doesn't look a McCain stable star. Zaru is too big at double figure prices.

2.00 Huntingdon Captain Chris 5pts win @ 4/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Captain Chris rarely lets the side down on seasonal debut, and I am happy to back him at odds of 4/1 for this contest, up against what I feel are inferior horses. It is only just under twelve months ago that he chased home Long Run in the King George, and although he gives weight away today I feel he is the horse most likely to win, yet he is not favourite. Riverside Theatre has been well backed, but I don't think he has ever been the same since that brutal tough Ryanair chase he won, and connections might just have bigger days in mind for him. Module has yet to show he is up to this class. Captain Chris has been much maligned, but the stable have been in decent form this season and another character of theirs, Wishful Thinking, ran a fine race at Aintree last weekend. The selection is too big at the odds and should be backed to win.

2.50 Newcastle Talkin Thomas 6pts win @ 11/2 (Generally guaranteed)

Nicky Richards has a decent record with hurdlers at Newcastle, but although he is 0-17 with chasers, I see no reason Talkin Thomas shouldn't win this. Nicky tends to send his chasers to the likes of Kelso, Hexham and Ayr, but with a mark of OR110 being awarded I would suggest he thought this was a gilt edged opportunity too hard to pass up. It looks a bad race. Get The Papers looks like Denman until his breathing problems flare up and he finished so weakly last time out when well punted that I just can't have him here. Radio Nowhere seems to go chasing out of desperation rather than any grand plan. Ben Akram hasn't impressed over fences thus far and Teo Vivo needs to brush up his jumping. I make the latter the danger, but Talkin Thomas was good enough to win a Novice Hurdle here, and he showed plenty of promise on his chase debut at Sedgefield, where one error probably cost him the race. He won't get many better opportunities than this and I think he should be a lot shorter than the current 11/2.

Profit & loss: day: +17.00 / month: +73.25 / year: +451.70

Tuesday 10th December 2013

A cracking card at Southwell this afternoon, and we have two selections.

1.30 Southwell Frontier Fighter 5pts win @ 13/2 (Coral, guaranteed, 6/1 generally guaranteed)

Boasts some very good course form and I had him down as unlucky when behind Dubai Hills earlier this year. He was possibly over the top having been turned out quickly, and he also had to travel on the inside rail for much of the journey, eventually doing well in my book to finish where he did. Dubai Hills is actually on better terms with him today but I think the price discrepancy between the two is too great - they were sent off 6/4 and 9/4 that day, but they trade around 9/4 and 6/1 this morning and in my book that makes Frontier Fighter a bet. He is better drawn today, and has arguably had a better preparation for the racing, having had a quiet summer geared towards a winter campaign. He looks excellent value at the prices.

2.30 Southwell Frosty Friday 5pts win @ 15/2 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 7/1 generally guaranteed)

Has often run very well at this track, but seemed to go sour for quite a while before bursting into life with a comfortable victory over course and distance last time out from a basement mark. That wasn't much of a race, but it was notable that she finished her race off much better than had been the case in the past, when she tended to travel well here before fading. The headgear is retained, and I don't think this is much better as a contest. She looks good value for one almost certain to run her race at 7/1+.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: +56.25 / year: +434.70

Sunday 8th December 2013

Just one bet for today.

1.55 Kelso Royale Knight 5pts win @ 15/2 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 7/1 generally guaranteed) - WON

This looks a decent little contest. A notable feature of the race would be that the race will be run on fairly decent ground, and many of these horses would prefer winter ground, including Imperial Vic the favourite. I have a lot of respect for his trainer Michael Smith, but I feel his horse is worth taking on here with one representing another excellent trainer, Dr. Richard Newland. Royale Knight likes better ground being by King's Theatre, and he appears to have been trained with this race in mind looking at his hurdles preparation which has protected his chase mark. The selection stays well, and was impressive when winning at this course earlier this year. The trainer more or less suggests that this has been the plan ever since, and the booking of Sam Twiston-Davies is the icing on the cake. 7/1+ is too big and he looks well worth backing at these prices

Profit & loss: day: +35.00 / month: +66.25 / year: +444.70

Saturday 7th December 2013

Three selections for this afternoon. There is a small chance of an evening bet for Wolverhampton, details before 4.00pm either way.

12.50 Sandown Tante Sissi 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 11/1 (Stan James, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)

Tante Sissi was wisely pulled up on her chase debut at Wincanton recently, when a tired mistake probably cost her the race given how well she was jumping. I don't think she was given the best ride by Choc Thornton, who allowed her to bowl along before slowing the pace, which seemed to disappoint her. She does go well fresh, so easing her and pulling her up before she had over exerted herself was the right thing to do, and you have to wonder if Choc had this race in the back of his mind. Connections would likely have mixed hurdling and novice chasing this season, and Tante Sissi looks well handicapped off OR125 for a horse with some very good course form. Her bumper second behind Swincombe Flame sticks out, and she always seems to run well at the track. Provided she settles ok and isn't feeling the effects of her Wincanton sprawl, she should go close and looks overpriced at the odds.

2.15 Wetherby Deepsand 4pts win @ 15/2 (Sporting Bet, 7/1 generally guaranteed)

This doesn't look a strong contest for the grade, and with Tim Easterby's recent runners performing better, Deepsand gets the vote here. His owner Trevor Hemmings likes having winners at the track, and the selection's sixth last time out came in a better race. He performed better than the finishing position suggests, because he got very buzzy early on when the first hurdle came up quickly and he had to fiddle his way over it. The horse never really got into a rhythm after that and probably did well to finish where he did. I find it interesting the selections has attracted some support this morning; the race looks weak with no standout candidate, and Zaplamation looks unlikely to get the strong pace he needs. Deepsand is reunited with a jockey who knows him well, the track will suit, and he is overpriced at the odds.

2.25 Sandown Deep Trouble 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 9/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON

Ben Case is a trainer I respect, and he seems to have brought on Deep Trouble gradually with a view to a handicap hurdles campaign this season. He excelled himself at cheltenham last time out when second to an Irish hotpot, clear of the rest, and I don't think the stiff finish suited such a strong travelling horse. Sandown's tighter track will suit and he won't mind the slightly less stiff finish here either. The booking of Leighton Aspell, who is riding arguably better than at any point in his career, is a positive, and at 9/1 he looks too big as opposed to the favourite, who looks to have a lot to prove despite being one of the Champion trainer's string he doesn't necessarily look well handicapped and it short enough first time out.

Profit & loss: day: +21.25 / month: +31.25 / year: +409.70

Friday 6th December 2013

Just one for this evening.

7.00 Wolverhampton My Son Max 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed)

MY Son Max has raced eleven times on polytrack, and has won three of those starts, continuing to look progressive on the surface and leaving the impression that he might still be well handicapped. He has gone well fresh in the past and has won  his last two starts at this course. He is drawn well in stall three, and should get a good tow into the contest, particularly if Equitania decides to take them along. Some of his form from earlier this year looks superior to that which has been achieved by the horses who are guaranteed to be fit, and the suggestion is that he is priced up here with his absence and the change of stable taken into consideration. Michael Blake has been getting winners, though, and given that the selection doesn't always need a race to show his best, he is taken to cause a minor shock at a decent price.

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Afternoon bets:

One selection for this afternoon, at least one evening bet will follow.

3.05 Lingfield Glastonberry 2pts each-way @ 14/1 (Bet Victor, 888 Sport, 12/1 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt @ Betfair SP - E/W 3rd

The weights and measures merchants have concluded that Glastonberry can't win here, having been 1 1/4 lengths behind Novellen Lad last time out. However, she has placed in the first three on 14 of her 20 all weather starts and still looks progressive and unexposed off OR76. She also seems to be a winter horse, having run up a sequence of good performances this time last year, which is always worth looking out for with mares in particular. In addition, that last run came after a 43 day break, which is long enough for a sprinter. She is only 21 days off the track today and that run along with the fact that she might just be in better condition given the time of year might be enough to see her turn in an improved performance. She is drawn better too, in stall five here versus stall eleven last time out, and is 4lb better off with Novellen Lad. The booking of Hayley Turner puts me off a little, because she has been off a few weeks and it can take time to get into the rhythm of these sprint handicaps, but prices of 12/1+ more than make up for any question marks and I think she rates the value bet of the afternoon.

Profit & loss: day: -1.00 / month: +10.00 / year: +398.45

Wednesday 4th December 2013

One selection for Wednesday Evening.

4.50 Kempton Fiftyshadesfreed 5pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

A decent little nursery. Fiftyshadesfreed looks overpriced here as the horse who seems to be improving and has no concerns over fitness, attitude or the suitability of the track. I'm not too keen on the Gosden horse (tongue tie, possible breathing issues) or the Meehan horse (flashed tail last time, unsold at the sales recently) and I think the race won by Castle Combe was fairly average. I thought the selection was pulling out more close home against Mersad last time out and I think it is likely he will do the same again this evening. The step up to a mile looks as if it will suit, and a 4lb rise for that last time out win does not look excessive. The price discrepancy here is too great and the 5/1 should be taken.

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Afternoon bets:

Just one selection. Evening bets for Kempton will follow before 4.00pm.

2.00 Lingfield Another Try 1pt each-way AND 3pts win @ 11/1 (Bet 365, Stan James, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)

Ran in a much better contest than this on penultimate run under today's pilot Luke Morris and acquitted himself well, not beaten far. This looks akin to a class drop to me and unless Barbados Bob has recovered quickly from a hard race nine days ago, I think Another Try can top the rest of them. He didn't get the clearest of runs last time out and although he is drawn wide, the return of Morris is a huge bonus and I'd hope he can get a nice midfield sit. Double figures are too big.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: +11.00 / year: +399.45

Tuesday 3rd December 2013

Very average fare today, and we have just one interest.

2.10 Wolverhampton Oratorio's Joy 5pts win @ 5/1 (Bet 365, Totesport, Betfred, Stan James, Betpack.com, Coral, guaranteed) - WON

Oratorio's Joy seems to like it at Wolverhampton, and is an uncomplicated, strong travelling filly who still seems to be improving late into her three year old season. She is closely matched with Fresa here off 4lb better terms than when they last met, and she may have come on in terms of conditioning too, given that that run came after a two month absence. She has the assistance of Rob Hornby in the saddle here and given that this is a hands and heels event, she makes more sense as a strong traveller than Fresa does as one who has needed plenty of encouragement from the saddle. The price discrepancy appears too big to me and she looks the bet of the day at 5/1.

Profit & loss: day: +25.00 / month: +21.00 / year: +409.45

Monday 2nd December 2014

Just one selection for today.

5.50 Kempton Colourbearer 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed, 11/1 generally guaranteed)

Posted his best effort for some time at Wolverhampton last time out when he rallied to finish a close second over six furlongs. The formbook suggests at first glance that he is something of a Wolverhampton specialist, but he reared on his only visit to Kempton and that effort is probably best forgiven. I think there is a likely strong pace on here, with Burnhope likely to go on from his low draw and Bapak Bangsawan and Indian Affair also likely to race prominently. That should suit the strong travelling Colourbearer, who will have every assistance in the saddle from the excellent Adam Kirby. I'm quite surprised at double figure odds and he looks the bet of the day at the prices.

Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: -4.00 / year: +398.45

Saturday 30th November 2013

A fantastic day's racing. We have two races of interest, and there's a small chance of an evening bet at Wolverhampton. Details on that either way before 4.00pm.

2.40 Newcastle Mr. Moss 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Bet Victor, Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 11/1 generally guaranteed)

We backed Mr. Moss at doncaster last season and were unlucky not to collect. He was really keen that day but showed he stays well, pulling well clear with Quentin Collonges who defeated Same Difference on his next start in the Bet 365 Gold cup. The pair were eight lengths clear of the third, and Mr. Moss is arguably well handicapped off just 4lb higher at OR136. He made his comeback with a spin over hurdles in October, and had no more than a pop around Cheltenham last time under Paddy Mullins, who wasn't hard on him. The selection almost certainly needs a flat, galloping left handed track to show his best and I have a feeling this race has been his target since the summer. Newcastle should suit him down to the ground, and the booking of Paul Moloney is important too - he knows the horse inside out and will be aware that he won't do much in front. I can't see anything of the potential of Quentin Collonges in here, and with the ground right for him I feel everything is in place for a big run. Anything in double figures is far too big, I make him an 8/1 shot.

3.00 Newbury Hennessy Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m2f110y

Highland Lodge 3pts win @ 11/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)

Invictus 3pts win @ 10/1 (Generally guaranteed)

A really exciting renewal of this top class race, even if it lacks an outstanding candidate. Although the race might end up with a shock result, I've gone through the candidates with a fine tooth comb and unless Opening Batsman rediscovers his best form, I can't see any of the bigger priced horses figuring. So we simply pick the horse with the best recent form, and the horse with the most class and best handicap mark from the unexposed ones who have been targeted at the race.

 Highland Lodge represents a stable who could not be going any better, and his recent form around Wincanton has been franked. He was very tired at the end of that race, but has had five weeks to recover and if he doesn't bounce, he is handicapped to win this. His jockey Leighton Aspell has been having something of an Indian Summer in the saddle, and at double figures he looks the sensible bet.

Invictus represents a trainer who is a dab hand at bringing horses back to perform to their best in handicaps. The stable have been quiet enough of late but it seems they've targeted this day for a long time, as many of their better and best are getting a run out this afternoon. The trainer has gone to a lot of trouble in sending the horse to Newbury for two racecourse gallops, and played a blinder earlier in the week by suggesting the horse has it to do after such an absence. It would have been easy to send him out late last season, but it appears the lure of an extremely good handicap mark resulted in connections aiming for this contest, and you have to feel that this day has been the plan for a long time. I'm not overly keen on the jockey booking, as I do feel Choc Thornton has lost the spark in the saddle he had a couple of years ago, saying that he remains capable enough to pop the selection around and it may well be the handicapper has done enough to help him.

Of the others, I have a class issue with Our Father and Rocky Creek given their respective handicap marks, and I'm against Lord Windermere. I think our Irish horses pick up some bad habits in small fields plodding around Leopardstown et al, and the fast pace and flat track tends to find them out in this race. Coupled with the late replacement of the apprentice jockey with a pilot who probably isn't familiar with the horse, and is 1/19 at Newbury in the last five years (0/6 over fences), and he is not a betting proposition for me at the prices.

Profit & loss: day: -12.00 / month: -63.05 / year: +402.45

Friday 29th November 2013

One for this evening. Please look out for potential price alerts for tomorrow, released tonight.

6.25 Wolverhampton George Fenton 3pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 8/1 (Skybet, 15/2 Bet Victor, Coral, Independents, guaranteed) - E/W 3rd @ 10/1

Conor Dore's stable seem to be hitting form after a period in the doldrums, and his George Fenton is developing into a very decent all weather performer, as evidenced by his latest run behind a big improver Jay Bee Blue. The selection is a hold up horse who travels well and really finishes his races strongly, so the presence of the likes of Ace Master, Smalljohn and Piceno in here amongst others who like to go forward early is a bonus for the selection and should see the race set up for him. He posted an RPR of 81 which equals his lifetime best and having won five times this year already, he is arguably lucky to be sitting on a handicap mark of just OR72 - and having been dropped 1lb after his last run. I can't see why the favourite is so short here and I'd be inclined to agree with the odds compilers at Betfair Sportsbook, who have the selection down as a 5/1 shot. 7/1+ is too big, and we'll have a decent each-way and win stake.

Profit & loss: day: +3.50 / month: -51.05 / year: +414.45

Thursday 28th November 2013

Just one for Kempton.

7.05 Kempton Generalyse 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 18/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed)

Generalyse disappointed last time out at Southwell, but that of course was on fibresand and the progeny of his sire Cadeaux Genereaux's stats aren't great on that surface. That run is forgiven, and we are left with a progressive four year old who has run respectably over this course and distance, and has won on polytrack too. His Leicester win was a lifetime best, and the rating he posted at Southwell matched his best despite conditions probably not suiting. There is every reason to expect further improvement and he looks too big at 16/1 here. He has a wide draw to overcome, but the excellent Jim Crowley is booked and I would hope a top course rider can offset that disadvantage.

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Afternoon bets:

One selection for this afternoon, possible evening bets will follow for Kempton before 4.00pm.

3.15 Newbury Get Back In Line 5pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

The form of the Catterick Novice hurdle won by Get Back In Line has worked out very well, and although that was over two miles three, he travelled really well and certainly didn't look short of gears. He is only a five year old by Milan, so he should have improved since following a decent break, and it will be absolutely no surprise should he prove a lot better than his current mark. Bookmakers seem to have priced this race up with the usual wonderment of whether this horse will be trying today or is being lined up for a target somewhere in the future. With five good rides at Uttoxeter and the 10-5 probably a struggle, it is no surprise Richie McLernon rides today and I would suggest that connections will be looking to get his handicap mark up a few pounds to get him into the likes of the big December handicap hurdles. OR127 doesn't guarantee that, but the horse looks miles better than that already and I can see him improving plenty today. I'm not a fan of Chatterbox or Puffin Billy, who both have well being to prove and have shown their hand to the handicapper, and I'm going to go for potential over experience here. There is enough juice in a price of 5/1 to merit taking the chance - Johnjo O'Neill and David Pipe have arguably been the best English trainers this season so far and I don't see that factored into the selection's price. 

Profit & loss: day: -9.00 / month: -54.55 / year: +410.95

Wednesday 27th November 2013

Just one for this evening.

5.30 Kempton Illegal Action 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Stan James, Betpack.com, independents, guaranteed, Sporting Bet)

This isn't a good maiden based on the form of those to have given their running so far - when the likes of Frangipanni (as short as 11/4) and Nova Champ (as short as 9/2) are trading short it give you an idea of the relatively low standard of the event for a Kempton maiden. The obvious first time out horses have been backed, with Glorious Empire now favourite and Spring Fling generally as low as 4/1. The bookmakers seem to have written off Illegal Action as a no hoper here, but I quite like his profile. There is an obvious positive in his breeding: sire Smart Strike's progeny have a very strong record on this surface, with a 19% strike rate and actual versus expected ratio of 1.18 suggesting they are significantly underbet, compared to a 12% strike rate on turf and an a/e ratio of 0.91. That means we can expect significant improvement from him this evening for the surface, but his breathing is a bigger issue. He showed plenty of speed on his first and second starts, and ran really well despite looking green on his debut. He never really looked a relaxed horse, though, and it is interesting he has been left off for 84 days. You would imagine he has had work done on his wind in the interim and first time back from his short break is probably the best time to catch him. It is interesting connections have taken the trouble to book Andrea Atzeni, who has had an excellent year and has improved vastly. The horse has no problems breaking alertly, he should improve for the surface, and if his wind doesn't bother him I think he can win this, He represents a stable who had a brilliant year with juveniles; this horse cost them 30,000GNS as a yearling and I don't think he is a handicap project. They haven't had many runners lately and I find it really interesting they have kept this horse on the go, clearly with polytrack in mind over the winter. Anything around 20/1+ is too big and he should be backed each-way and win.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -45.55 / year: +419.95