A fantastic day's racing. We have two races of interest, and there's a small chance of an evening bet at Wolverhampton. Details on that either way before 4.00pm.
We backed Mr. Moss at doncaster last season and were unlucky not to collect. He was really keen that day but showed he stays well, pulling well clear with Quentin Collonges who defeated Same Difference on his next start in the Bet 365 Gold cup. The pair were eight lengths clear of the third, and Mr. Moss is arguably well handicapped off just 4lb higher at OR136. He made his comeback with a spin over hurdles in October, and had no more than a pop around Cheltenham last time under Paddy Mullins, who wasn't hard on him. The selection almost certainly needs a flat, galloping left handed track to show his best and I have a feeling this race has been his target since the summer. Newcastle should suit him down to the ground, and the booking of Paul Moloney is important too - he knows the horse inside out and will be aware that he won't do much in front. I can't see anything of the potential of Quentin Collonges in here, and with the ground right for him I feel everything is in place for a big run. Anything in double figures is far too big, I make him an 8/1 shot.
3.00 Newbury Hennessy Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m2f110y
Highland Lodge 3pts win @ 11/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)
Invictus 3pts win @ 10/1 (Generally guaranteed)
A really exciting renewal of this top class race, even if it lacks an outstanding candidate. Although the race might end up with a shock result, I've gone through the candidates with a fine tooth comb and unless Opening Batsman rediscovers his best form, I can't see any of the bigger priced horses figuring. So we simply pick the horse with the best recent form, and the horse with the most class and best handicap mark from the unexposed ones who have been targeted at the race.
Highland Lodge represents a stable who could not be going any better, and his recent form around Wincanton has been franked. He was very tired at the end of that race, but has had five weeks to recover and if he doesn't bounce, he is handicapped to win this. His jockey Leighton Aspell has been having something of an Indian Summer in the saddle, and at double figures he looks the sensible bet.
Invictus represents a trainer who is a dab hand at bringing horses back to perform to their best in handicaps. The stable have been quiet enough of late but it seems they've targeted this day for a long time, as many of their better and best are getting a run out this afternoon. The trainer has gone to a lot of trouble in sending the horse to Newbury for two racecourse gallops, and played a blinder earlier in the week by suggesting the horse has it to do after such an absence. It would have been easy to send him out late last season, but it appears the lure of an extremely good handicap mark resulted in connections aiming for this contest, and you have to feel that this day has been the plan for a long time. I'm not overly keen on the jockey booking, as I do feel Choc Thornton has lost the spark in the saddle he had a couple of years ago, saying that he remains capable enough to pop the selection around and it may well be the handicapper has done enough to help him.
Of the others, I have a class issue with Our Father and Rocky Creek given their respective handicap marks, and I'm against Lord Windermere. I think our Irish horses pick up some bad habits in small fields plodding around Leopardstown et al, and the fast pace and flat track tends to find them out in this race. Coupled with the late replacement of the apprentice jockey with a pilot who probably isn't familiar with the horse, and is 1/19 at Newbury in the last five years (0/6 over fences), and he is not a betting proposition for me at the prices.
Profit & loss: day: -12.00 / month: -63.05 / year: +402.45
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