7.05 Kempton Generalyse 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 18/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed)
Generalyse disappointed last time out at Southwell, but that of course was on fibresand and the progeny of his sire Cadeaux Genereaux's stats aren't great on that surface. That run is forgiven, and we are left with a progressive four year old who has run respectably over this course and distance, and has won on polytrack too. His Leicester win was a lifetime best, and the rating he posted at Southwell matched his best despite conditions probably not suiting. There is every reason to expect further improvement and he looks too big at 16/1 here. He has a wide draw to overcome, but the excellent Jim Crowley is booked and I would hope a top course rider can offset that disadvantage.
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Afternoon bets:
One selection for this afternoon, possible evening bets will follow for Kempton before 4.00pm.
3.15 Newbury Get Back In Line 5pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
The form of the Catterick Novice hurdle won by Get Back In Line has worked out very well, and although that was over two miles three, he travelled really well and certainly didn't look short of gears. He is only a five year old by Milan, so he should have improved since following a decent break, and it will be absolutely no surprise should he prove a lot better than his current mark. Bookmakers seem to have priced this race up with the usual wonderment of whether this horse will be trying today or is being lined up for a target somewhere in the future. With five good rides at Uttoxeter and the 10-5 probably a struggle, it is no surprise Richie McLernon rides today and I would suggest that connections will be looking to get his handicap mark up a few pounds to get him into the likes of the big December handicap hurdles. OR127 doesn't guarantee that, but the horse looks miles better than that already and I can see him improving plenty today. I'm not a fan of Chatterbox or Puffin Billy, who both have well being to prove and have shown their hand to the handicapper, and I'm going to go for potential over experience here. There is enough juice in a price of 5/1 to merit taking the chance - Johnjo O'Neill and David Pipe have arguably been the best English trainers this season so far and I don't see that factored into the selection's price.
Profit & loss: day: -9.00 / month: -54.55 / year: +410.95
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