5.30 Kempton Illegal Action 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Stan James, Betpack.com, independents, guaranteed, Sporting Bet)
This isn't a good maiden based on the form of those to have given their running so far - when the likes of Frangipanni (as short as 11/4) and Nova Champ (as short as 9/2) are trading short it give you an idea of the relatively low standard of the event for a Kempton maiden. The obvious first time out horses have been backed, with Glorious Empire now favourite and Spring Fling generally as low as 4/1. The bookmakers seem to have written off Illegal Action as a no hoper here, but I quite like his profile. There is an obvious positive in his breeding: sire Smart Strike's progeny have a very strong record on this surface, with a 19% strike rate and actual versus expected ratio of 1.18 suggesting they are significantly underbet, compared to a 12% strike rate on turf and an a/e ratio of 0.91. That means we can expect significant improvement from him this evening for the surface, but his breathing is a bigger issue. He showed plenty of speed on his first and second starts, and ran really well despite looking green on his debut. He never really looked a relaxed horse, though, and it is interesting he has been left off for 84 days. You would imagine he has had work done on his wind in the interim and first time back from his short break is probably the best time to catch him. It is interesting connections have taken the trouble to book Andrea Atzeni, who has had an excellent year and has improved vastly. The horse has no problems breaking alertly, he should improve for the surface, and if his wind doesn't bother him I think he can win this, He represents a stable who had a brilliant year with juveniles; this horse cost them 30,000GNS as a yearling and I don't think he is a handicap project. They haven't had many runners lately and I find it really interesting they have kept this horse on the go, clearly with polytrack in mind over the winter. Anything around 20/1+ is too big and he should be backed each-way and win.
Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -45.55 / year: +419.95
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