Sunday 9th November 2014

One selection for Sunday.

2.25 Navan Special Tiara 5pts win @ 8/1 / 7/1 (Generally guaranteed)

A run on the flat, one over hurdles, and a recent chase run haven't seen Special Tiara rediscover his best form, but he has had plausible excuses for all three runs and I think this Grade 2 is well within his compass should he be able to put it all together today. It seems Andrew Lynch has chosen to ride Days Hotel, but I wouldn't read too much into that and although I'm not a big fan of Brian Hayes, a change in jockey can sometimes help a horse and the selection might just benefit from a different pair of hands today. At his best, this is a Grade 1 two miler, but he seems to have been difficult to train. De Bromhead's stable are in fine form, though, and he is a trainer I greatly respect in terms of his ability to get difficult horses right. Special Tiara scoped badly after his last race, but he jumped really well before that and there was definite promise to be taken from the run. A reproduction of his Sandown form behind Sire De Grugy would see him go close here and there's no reason why he shouldn't improve for his last run in terms of fitness. Running two in the one race is unusual for this trainer, and I find it interesting he has chosen to declare both Days Hotel and the selection. Anything 7/1+ is fair.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -5.00 / year: +202.75

Saturday 8th November 2014

Two races of interest for us today.

3.15 Wincanton

Bertimont 3pts win @ 8/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Fox Norton 3pts win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Irving could be the class act here, but it has paid in recent weeks to take on Paul Nicholls' horses first time out and perhaps we can get him beaten today. Bertimont hurdled very impressively when winning at Chepstow last time out, and although he was handed a ridiculously easy lead the manner of his victory was impressive. The runner up has run well since, and it might just be that the handicapper has been lenient in his treatment of a progressive horse. The other horse who makes appeal is Fox Norton. His trainer says he's likely to come on for the run, but the same was said of last year's winner Melodic Rendezvous and it didn't stop him winning impressively. Fox Norton is a very classy horse, one of last year's best juveniles and a horse who can go very well fresh. He hasn't been easy to train, but he could be a stone better than his current handicap mark in my estimation and he is a danger to all here. Conditions will suit him and he is too big at double figure prices.

3.25 Kelso Native Spa 5pts win @ 10/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Michael Smith's horses have largely been out of form, but he had a horse run much better the other day at Wetherby and his Native Spa looks well handicapped on a piece of form at Newcastle last season, if he is able to reproduce something in that ballpark on his seasonal reappearance. Smith generally has his horses fit first time up, and he does do well at Kelso: he boasts a 21% strike rate over the course of the last five seasons, returning a level stakes profit of +43.13 to the unit stake. Native Spa looked like he still had growing to do last season, and it might just be he improves for the summer on his back. Brian Hughes takes the ride and anything around 9/1+ looks good value. This is a winnable race - most of his rivals haven't achieved much - and anything that shows a modicum of improvement will be in with a chance of winning it.

Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: -11.00 / year: +207.75

Friday 7th November 2014

Just one bet for this evening.

5.10 Wolverhampton Speightstown's Kid 5pts win @ 10/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, independents, guaranteed)

Speightstown's Kid is an in and out performer, who can follow up an abysmal run with a win that can make him look like an improving performer. He had no chance of winning the claimer he was entered in last time, but he may have needed the run after a break anyway and it is probably no surprise he didn't show up much. He has been entered in a winnable handicap here, and the booking of a very promising claiming rider who is a steal for his 3lbs  really takes the eye. This should be run to suit, with some pace up front likely to come from Little Elie, and if the selection can travel and pounce then double figure prices could look silly after the race. He is as likely to finish last as he is first, he's that type of horse but he does represent value here. Take anything 9/1 or better.

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Afternoon bets:

One for this afternoon, and evening bets to follow, released before 4.30pm.

3.00 Musselburgh Buy Back Bob 3pts each-way @ 5/1 (Skybet, Bet Victor, Ladbrokes, Betfair Sportsbook) - E/W 3rd @ 6/1

Buy Back Bob is quite consistent  when he is right, and from seven hurdles runs he has hit the frame five times, with two soft ground flops the aberrations on that profile. He travels well, but has failed to find as much as seemed likely on a couple of occasions in the past. However his recent Southwell run was decent and with his yard in good form, he makes appeal here on good ground over a relatively easy two mile trip. He looks well handicapped off OR117 too, having run to a mark 4lbs above that on his last two starts. He cost only £6,000 bought out of Tony Martin's yard, but the recent run suggests it could be money well spent and the likely decent pace of today's race should suit him. This is the type of horse I like to back each-way: he is well handicapped, has good recent form, and tends more often than not to give his running, although he needs everything to drop right to win. 3pts each-way pays just less than 4pts win and it looks the smart way to stake the selection.

Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: +0.00 / year: +218.75

Wednesday 5th November 2014

One race of interest this afternoon. Possible evening bets will follow, details either way before 5.00pm.

3.15 Chepstow 

Eastern Witness 3pts win @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Theregoesthetruth 3pts win @ 14/1 / 12/1 (Generally guaranteed)

This is an interesting low grade handicap hurdle, which will be run on heavy ground. Venetia Williams is the master trainer when it comes to horses running in these conditions, and her Eastern Witness looks to be worth chancing at a double figure price here. The selection is bred to go on this kind of ground, and won an Irish point to point on soft, but he achieved very little in maiden hurdles last year. His trainer done a decent job of getting him handicapped on a workable mark of OR99, and it is interesting she perseveres. The drop back in trip is interesting: he showed promise on his final start at Huntingdon at around this distance, before being put away. Whether there were breathing or other issues, he was never really right and connections done the right thing in putting him away in early March. It may be that he simply doesn't have much ability, but his trainer isn't knowing for keeping bad horses and this looks a good piece of placement. Aidan Coleman takes the right.

Theregoesthetruth represents a stable who are in very good form, with a number of horses outrunning market expectation in the last few days. The selection saw the track as a four year old in Ireland, but was off the track until her reappearance at Ffos Las last month. She ran well and hurdled proficiently, but her jockey noticeably took a pull on her around three out, and she was ridden very tenderly thereafter - in fact, she made her only jumping mistake of the race after being eased to a slower pace. She most likely did get tired late on, and the time of the race wasn't impressive, but it was a nice reintroduction against horses better than what she faces today. She is by Flemensfirth, whose progeny's actual versus expected ratio on soft and heavy ground is strong, and she should handle conditions today. A good 3lb claimer takes the ride and she is also worth betting on her handicap debut.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: +4.00 / year: +222.75

Tuesday 4th November 2014

One bet for this afternoon, possible evening bets to follow before 5.00pm.

2.15 Exeter God's Own 5pts win @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral, guaranteed, 13/2 generally guaranteed) - WON @ 8/1

God's Own has been cleverly campaigned by Tom George, in that he retains his Novice status for this season having won the Grade 1 Novice chase at Punchestown on May 1st. He looks well handicapped here with Balder Succes, receiving 7lb from a rival whom he beat off levels on his last start. There seemed to be no fluke about that result, although he got a great ride from Barry Geraghty and raced on the best of the ground all the way around. The extra 1 1/2 furlongs today should be in his favour: he sees out two miles well. The selection also seems better racing clockwise, as I pointed out when advising him in May. He has run well on both his seasonal reappearances (hampered and unseated when going well on last year's seasonal debut) and his trainer is in form. Indeed, his trainer was responsible for the runner up in this race last year Module, who was only beaten a head by Somersby. I'm not a fan of Hinterland with Paul Nicholls' horses tending to need a run, and the selection looks better weighted than Balder Succes. Cue Card will most likely need this after injury, and the danger will perhaps be Somersby. I think connections will have targeted this race for God's Own and he looks too big at 13/2+.

Profit & loss: day: +40.00 / month: +10.00 / year: +228.75

Monday 3rd November 2014

Just one selection for Monday.

2.15 Wolverhampton Pearl Noir 5pts win @ 11/2 (Generally guaranteed)

Pearl Noir ran better than his finishing position suggests last time out in a six furlong class 5 event at Lingfield. The selection was in front coming into the final bend, but blew the turn completely in what looked a lapse of concentration to this observer. He hasn't won over six furlongs yet, but two wins since July and a couple of decent performances in between suggest to me that he is an improving sprinter at the age of four. He rallied well at Lingfield and wasn't beaten far into fifth, but can still race in class 6 events of this mark of OR59. The 5lb claimer who rode him that day is replaced today by Luke Morris, who knows the horse well. I would expect him to sit on the lead and stack them up in behind, or perhaps forfeit the lead and sit handy, to conserve stamina over this distance. He has enough speed and is in good enough form to beat a poor bunch of sprinters here, who are largely out of form or just gearing up for winter campaigns. The 11/2 generally available looks fair for this class dropper.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -30.00 / year: +188.75

Saturday 1st November 2014

Two bets for us at Santa Anita this evening.

9.43 Santa Anita - Breeder's Cup Juvenile

Selection: The Great War 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 11/1 (Generally guaranteed, get 1/4 odds paid)

Aidan O'Brien won this race having stepped up Johannesburg from six furlongs, and he can repeat the feat with dirt-bred The Great War this evening. The selection is by War Front, whose progeny go very well on dirt, and his form in Ireland is really strong. His last time out win was achieved without too much fuss and was probably just a preparation for this. He is drawn in stall 4 which gives him a good chance of getting a good trip, and Ryan Moore is the right man to have on top. I thought he was too big in double figure prices and with 1/4 odds paid by most bookmakers, he appeals as an each-way selection.

12.35AM Santa Anita - Breeders Cup Classic 

Selection: Tonalist 5pts win @ 6/1 (Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Coral, William Hill, guaranteed)

Tonalist was ultra impressive last time out, when defeating Zivo in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. As a Belmont Stakes winner, he has proven stamina, and my feeling is that this will be run at a manic pace and will bring in the closers. Bayern and Moreno in particular are almost certain to go hard, and looking at the draw I can see an overload of the lesser fancied horses trying to get an early position. This could turn into an absolute dogfight down the stretch, a la Drosselmeyer in 2011. Tonalist appeals as the type who can do his best work late, and with the right trip into the race he could be hard to hold off.

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Afternoon Bets:

Weybridge Light was hampered quite badly on the home turn last night, but he battled on gamely to land place money for us. Dark Days had no issues with hanging or ducking in and won it handsomely.

Today's racing is fantastic, and we have three afternoon interests.

Please note Breeder's Cup selections and analysis will be sent before 6.30pm.

1.45 Ascot Cocktails At Dawn 5pts win @ 7/2 (Skybet, 888 Sport, Betfair Sportsbook, Bet Bright, Racebets, BruceBetting.com)

This is a decent Novice's Handicap, but despite the fact that Cocktails At Dawn is making his debut over fences, I think he is good value at 7/2. He was the best of these over hurdles in my view, and it suggests he is thought to be a chaser given that he is switched to fences after just five hurdles starts. He oozed class at Kempton in April when he made light work of a fair field of hurdlers and probably just bounced six days later when turned over at Chepstow. This trip and right handed track should be perfect for him, and his trainer tends to have his novices ready for this meeting. Monkey Kingdom probably wants the ground softer, and Keltus hasn't looked a natural chaser thus far. Garrahalish would be my idea of the danger. He is a fine jumper, but I don't expect them to go a manic gallop here and Cocktails At Dawn can win this with his class and speed. The presence of Barry Geraghty in the saddle is obviously a massive plus.

2.20 Ascot Claret Cloak 5pts win @ 13/2 (Generally guaranteed)

I'm not sure Next Sensation wants to go right handed, and although he was a very good novice I'd be happy to take him on here. Bellenos tends to throw in the odd stinker, and I don't think Manyriverstocross is that well handicapped. Ulck Du Lin looks well treated, but Claret Cloak represents a stable in very good form and he won on his seasonal debut last year.It appears that there is some pace on with Next Sensation likely to lead, and that will suit Claret Cloak well. It is hard to argue that he is well handicapped with Next Sensation based on Cheltenham form, but I think he is more likely to be suited by race conditions and more likely to be tuned up. With Leighton Aspell in the saddle - he had a fine season last year and is riding better than ever - he appeals at 13/2 in what looks a tight handicap.

2.30 Down Royal Ma Filleule 5pts win @ 4/1 (Generally guaranteed)

There is very little wrong with Ma Filleule's form from last season, and her Aintree win confirmed she is a very good chaser. It is interesting Nicky Henderson sends her over here for a race the English have traditionally farmed, and she looks well treated by the race conditions with a 7lb allowance. The booking of Daryl Jacob is intriguing. He gave Kauto Stone a fine ride in this race a couple of years ago, and Henderson has wisely made use of the fact that Paul Nicholls no longer requires him. We've already seen Sam Twiston-Davies usurped by his father's horses when riding Paul Nicholls' hotpots, and I expect this theme to punctuate this National Hunt season somewhat. Jacob could very well land a satisfying victory today. Most of these won't be fully tuned up, but I think the likely moderate pace over this distance, on ground which took some rain yesterday, will suit the mare better than anything else in the race and she can pay a compliment to Holywell by winning this valuable Grade 1.

Profit & loss: day: -25.00 / month: -25.00 / year: +193.75

Friday 31st October 2014

Two selections for us this evening and an each-way double, which leads us in to what is traditionally a huge weekend for us. We will have afternoon bets tomorrow, and evening bets to follow after that, with the focus being on the Breeder's Cup at Santa Anita.

1pt each-way double on today's selections - 33/1 / 20/1 guaranteed with Skybet, Stan James, Betpack.com, 25/1 and 16/1 guaranteed next best)

5.25 Wolverhampton Miguela McGuire 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (Skybet, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 25/1 generally guaranteed)

As befitting of a 0-60 handicap, this isn't a great contest and there aren't many here who could be called progressive, except perhaps Crown Pleasure, who improved at this track last time out. However, she took her time getting close to the leaders having had a dream passage after being switched off early doors, so she makes no appeal to me at 9/2. Keeper's Ring is the one that could be better than these, she got the dodgy "third run for a handicap mark" ride at Kempton last time out, but it's still hard to know if she'll make a decent racehorse when the gun is put to her head. I do find the pricing up of these events funny, on occasion, and it is interesting to me that Tohaveandtohold is generally 12/1 for this, despite not having done a tap in her four race career, and Miguela McGuire is a 33/1 shot in places, having recorded her two best efforts on her last two starts, posting ratings which would give her a decent chance here off a mark of OR53. 

The selection represents Eric Alston, who does get winners at Wolves, and  has had two horses outrun big odds in recent days. Alston had a virus in his yard during the summer and most of his string were off the boil until September. This filly ran a really nice race at Hamilton in September (her first start since July) in a race that worked out well, and backed up that effort with a better one at Chester 5 days later, in a strong maiden where she was sent off an unconsidered 50/1 shot. She was leading the three OR80+ types coming into the home straight, before fading into a well beaten fourth when their class told, but it was a good run on figures and she was clear of the dross. She showed good speed on both of those recent starts, and with little obvious pace in this contest, she might just get a freebie on the lead from stall 3. Their is evidence in her pedigree that synthetics should suit her, and indeed she recorded a decent effort on her only all weather run, at this track last October, when she was absolutely levelled with kickback in a decent 2yo handicap, but ran all the way to the line, having been hampered into the bargain. With fillies, you sometimes have to spot the ones who enjoy racing, and equally those who aren't interested in the game. Miguela Maguire has looked a willing filly on her last two starts, and she has been entered in a winnable race today. She is 9lbs higher than she was for her Chester run, but it still puts her in with a chance against this lot and it is interesting Paddy Mathers makes the trip to ride her (his only mount on the card). 25/1+ looks fair, and although she may not win, she has been underestimated in the market and I expect her to outrun her odds.

6.25 Wolverhampton Weybridge Light 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Bet 365, Skybet, Stan James, Betpack.com, Ladbrokes, guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

At the prices, I'm keen to take on Dark Days here, given how he hung left in the straight last time out.

Weybridge Light won a 1m4f handicap here last year, from a mark of OR46, having done the summer jumping rounds before being returned to polytrack. He is a dependable sort of horse, with a strike rate under rules of 6/59, a shade better than one in ten, and decent for a horse of moderate ability. He runs tonight over the extended two mile trip, but there isn't much pace in the race and I think it could set up for the selection, who has won over trips between 12 and 14 furlongs on the all weather. He seems to be a better horse on synthetics, and connections have done well to get him back down to his last winning mark by campaigning him on the turf. It doesn't seem to have been spotted, but the circumstances tonight are remarkably similar to those under which he won here last year. Jimmy Quinn takes the ride, and with the dead eight lining up it makes sense to support him each-way and win. I chalked him up around the 11/1 mark, and anything around 20/1 is too big. We'll also include him in an each-way double with Miguela McGuire.

Profit & loss: day: +0.00 / month: +24.20 / year: +218.75

Thursday 30th October 2014

Just one bet for this afternoon. Evening bets will follow before 5.00pm. (we won't have any interest in Kempton's first two races).

3.20 Lingfield Cascading 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed - Ladbrokes pay 1/4 1-2-3)

Racing prominently has been an advantage in this race over the course of the last two years, since Lingfield's track was relaid. Cascading has never raced on polytrack, which has to be a negative, but I think that is factored into her price and her run style might give her an advantage here. She likes to lead, and with Jim Crowley on board (17% at the track) and a reasonable draw in stall 7, she should be able to get a good early position. As a three year old, she gets a decent weight allowance of her rivals and it is somewhat surprising she is the price she is given her age group's good record in the race. She is the second highest rated 3yo, 1lb behind the 6/4fav Hidden Gold, and 7lbs clear of her next best 3yo rival.

The selection has improved this year, posting a strong effort over 12 furlongs at Newbury in August (a race that has worked out well)  before setting too quick a pace at Doncaster last time out on rain softened ground. Her trainer's horses tend to run well on artificial surfaces, including on their first try, and I am happy to give her the benefit of the doubt with the change of surface - indeed I think this sharp, turning track with a downhill section will suit her. One race a month since April probably hasn't been too taxing, and if she can reproduce her Newbury figure, she is in with every chance of winning this. We'll play each-way and win - please note Ladbrokes will pay 1/4 odds 1-2-3.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: +24.20 / year: +218.75

Wednesday 29th October 2014

Two selections and an each-way double for Kempton:

1pt each-way double on today's selections, 10/1 and 7/1 generally guaranteed.

4.55 Kempton Snow Conditions 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Bet 365, Skybet, guaranteed, 11/1 Bet Victor guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)

This looks a weak enough contest, but I feel there is some value to be had in backing Snow Conditions. She has only race twice on polytrack, trailing in last here on her debut, but then improving on her seasonal debut over 11 furlongs here to finish second behind Nyanza, who has had an excellent season and is now rated 19lbs higher than she was when beating Snow Conditions having gotten first run on her in a messy race where the leader went tear-assing out in front and was ignored by most of the jockeys until the home turn. She was fully six lengths ahead of Assoluta, today's 9/2 second favourite, that day giving her 6lbs and the selection is 2lbs better off with that rival today. Snow Conditions has picked up a race since, at Brighton, but tends to be a bit in and out. A first time hood didn't have any effect in September (after her win), and heavy ground was no use to her last time out. She travelled very well on this surface on her last attempt on it, and it may just be she ends up a polytrack specialist. Her tendency to race prominently these days is no problem on this tight track, and the draw in stall 4 is kind. If she runs up to her best, I feel she has to go close, and we'll play each-way and win.

5.25 Kempton Understory 5pts win @ 7/1 (Generally guaranteed)

It would be unfair to call Understory a One Trick Pony, but that said, he has achieved all of his six wins by making all over trips between 8.5 and 10 furlongs, and five of those wins have been on polytrack. His handicap mark has dropped quite a bit lately, but there were signs of life at Lingfield last time out, when he was able to dominate Sexy Secret and most of the rest of his field before he tired markedly late on to finish fourth. It is interesting he came on a lot for his first run of the winter last year, finding around 8lbs for the benefit of his first run, and if he repeats the pattern this year it puts him right in with a shout here. The draw has been kind to him, and Hayley Turner (who has won on him twice) is making the trip down from Nottingham to ride him (it won't hurt that she rode a winner at Nottingham). He may face competition for the lead, but he looks a faster horse than Pannetone and Classic Mission, and if things go way he could have this lot in trouble by the home turn. At 7/1, he makes plenty of appeal given the fair handicap mark, ideal race conditions, and poor quality of opposition.

Profit & loss: day: -13.00 / month: +30.20 / year: +224.75

Monday 27th October 2014

Just one for today.

3.50 Ayr Streams Of Whiskey 6pts win @ 9/2 (Totesport, Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Betfred, Bet Victor, guaranteed)

Fell twice in races won by Green Flag last year, but improved to win a decent Haydock contest in April before being put away for the summer. Streams Of Whiskey won first time out last year, and with his stable's horses in winning form I would suggest the selection will be tuned up enough for today's contest. The selection carries top weight, but he has won with 11-12 on his back before and with conditions ideal and the rain largely missing Ayr, the weight shouldn't be too much of a burden. I think the selection has a class edge on these rivals, and if his jumping holds up as well as it did at Haydock in April, he'll take an awful lot of beating. I'm surprised at his odds, he is a 10/3 shot in my book and I'd expect his price will contract on course. Take the early 9/2 for a decent stake.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: +43.20 / year: +237.75

Sunday 26th October 2014

One selection for Sunday.

3.15 Aintree Dreams Of Milan 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 16/1 (Totesport, Betfred, guaranteed, 14/1 generally guaranteed)

As the Racing Post suggests, there are question marks about most of these with regard to track, trip or ground, and when the likes of the unreliable Peckhamecho is close to the top of the market, you know it's the type of race where bookmakers could get a result. Dreams Of Milan is the outsider of eight here, but he definitely stays the trip, definitely likes decent ground, and should have no problem with a flat, left handed galloping track. Connections have tried to make a chaser out of him, but he isn't a natural over the larger obstacles and doesn't seem a confident jumper. He showed very little at Carlisle last time out, but he was well punted which suggests connections at least felt he was fit. He has been long overdue a return to hurdles, and his current handicap mark of OR117 if very fair based on his best form in this sphere. First time blinkers are applied, which interests me straight away because Donald McCain has a very good record with runners in first time headgear. The selection has a featherweight on his back, and as a result Wilson Renwick takes the ride in place of Jason Maguire. With a new jockey, new headgear, and a switch back to the code under which he has been much more successful, there is every chance of an improved performance here. He makes plenty of appeal at 14/1+, and with the dead eight lining up, it makes sense to play each-way and win.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: +49.20 / year: +243.75

Saturday 25th October 2014

One bet for this evening.

6.45 Wolverhampton The Great Gabrial 6pts win @ 5/1 (Generally guaranteed)

The Great Gabrial is something of a synthetics specialist, who travels strongly on fibresand / polytrack / Tapeta and has perhaps been unlucky not to pick up a race at Wolverhampton already. The selection pulled too hard last time over an extended mile, but ran a fine race in a stronger contest than this to finish third behind Tinghir. He looks well handicapped based on that run off a mark of OR86, and his draw in stall four is a positive over this trip. There seems to be pace on the cards which will be important to him, and I'd hope Jason Hart can sit prominent enough close to the pace and do his best work late on in the straight. 5/1 is fair with the favourite coming here off the back of a break, and Earth Drummer unproven on the surface.

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Afternoon bets:

A cracking days' racing today, with a couple of excellent jumps cards from Aintree and Chepstow our main focus. An evening update will follow before 5.30pm.

3.00 Aintree Edgardo Sol 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 12/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

Edgardo Sol looks ovepriced here for a stable whose horses are in decent form. He seems to have been around for a while now, but is only a seven year old and in my view probably suffered a bit by being down the pecking order at Paul Nicholls' stable. I don't think he was always entered in the right races, and he appeals to me as the type of horse who might benefit for getting a bit more one-on-one attention in a smaller stable.He has won twice over fences at this course, including a very impressive win at the festival in April 2012. Good or good to soft ground seems to bring out the best in him, and he looks nicely handicapped off OR150. He disappointed in this race last year and spent the rest of his campaign hurdling, but he showed enough to suggest the fire still burns and I wouldn't rule out a renaissance under Emma Lavelle's care. The excellent Aidan Coleman rides, and I make Uxizandre (who rates the obvious danger) and this horse the best handicapped pair in the race. 12/1+ looks fair.

3.40 Aintree Burton Port 7pts win @ 10/3 (William Hill, guaranteed, 3/1 Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed)

This is a cracking Veteran's Chase. I had a good look at it last night when Pigeon Island was 5/1 and better, and I have to say I expected the flood of money that has come given his handicap mark. I made my mind up to take him on with Burton Port provided the selection drifted to 11/4, and I'm very happy to have a decent stake on at 3/1+. I think the selection is the class horse of the race, and his graded form gives him the edge over his rivals off his mark of OR146. The main question to ask here is: have connections sent him here for a quiet spin around as part of an early Grand National campaign? The answer in my view is no. They have booked Jason Maguire, who isn't your typical hide-him-out-the-back type jockey. Rather, I think the owner likes a winner here and given the horse is now eligible for this type of race, why not try and land some prize money without the horse having a hard time? The key piece of form here is not the selections run behind Follow The Plan in the Betfred Bowl of 2012, but his Newbury run in March. Connections allowed him to bowl along and make his own running, using his high cruising speed, class to hold that speed for a long time, and solid jumping to get all his rivals in trouble - including Pigeon Island, who was receiving 13lbs. On heavy ground, Burton Port tired late on and gave best to a dour stayer of Venetia Williams. I think Jason Maguire will be told to make the running today, and I don't think Burton Port will tire on this ground, at a track he enjoys, against inferior rivals. Pigeon Island is undoubtedly well handicapped, but he is 1lb out of the weights and the jockey will either put up overweight, or will be riding at a weight that will leave him feeling pretty weak at the end of three miles and one furlong. He isn't an easy horse to win with, and although I think he will run his race, my reading of the Newbury form leads me to believe Burton Port should account for him. I actually think last year's renewal was poor, and with that in mind I don't fancy Hey Big Spender either. McMurrough and Lie Forrit both seem to want it softer although the latter would be the danger if he enjoys the return to chasing. 3/1+ on Burton Port is far too big here.

4.45 Chepstow Majala 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 10/1 / 9/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Tom George's horses have been running well, and I see no reason why Majala should be as big as 10/1 for a race he was second in last year, having set ridiculous fractions. He was thumped by Sire De Grugy that day, but the tactics employed didn't give him much of a chance and it is interesting Alain Cawley rides him today, having won on him at Perth in April, employing more restrained tactics. The selection goes well fresh, and is 6lb lower than he was for the race last year. There is no Sire De Grugy to contend with this time, and I would be happy to take on Valdez at this prices. I priced up Majala as a 6/1 shot tops, and I'm suite surprised he is available at these odds. We'll play each-way and win, which covers our stake and then some in the event of a place

Profit & loss: day: -18.00 / month: +55.20 / year: +249.75

Friday 24th October 2014

Two selections for this evening.

7.20 Wolverhampton Kraka Gym 5pts win @ 5/1 / 9/2 (Generally guaranteed) - WON

Kraka Gym looks a potential polytrack improver this winter, and his recent second behind Plucky Dip has been franked. He got an absolute nightmare of a run that day, travelling five wide around the home turn, and he did well to finish where he did. The rest were comfortably beaten off, and the selection has done pretty well not to have been nudged up by the handicapper. One possible caveat is that he does seem to hang a bit under pressure, but it might be a case of him being the best handicapped horse in the race here and if he simply reproduces something like his last run, it might be enough to see him win. He looks decent value against the favourite at the prices.

7.50 Wolverhampton Monte Cassino 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Generally guaranteed)

This is a bit of a donkey derby, and I'd suggest that some of the horses with sexier, more "unexposed" profiles might not do the business - Swiss Lait and Adimendis in particular don't look the easiest of rides and I'd happily avoid professional losers like Sewn Up. I don't see much value in El Mirage either, and I'd rather take a chance on the old boy Monte Cassino. His stable's first runner today went close in the big Doncaster sprint, and this horse popped up at a price over course and distance in this month last year. He looks well handicapped, and the lack of a recent run or recent form doesn't bother me given his tendency of putting it all together only once in a while. A good claimer takes a valuable 5lb off and with a decent draw in stall 4, he can make the running and perhaps hold on while the horses who don't like to win are trying to have a think about things.

Profit & loss: day: +20.00 / month: +73.20 / year: +267.75

Thursday 23rd October 2014

Just one for Kempton.

5.40 Kempton Just Marion 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 20/1 (Skybet, Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Stan James, Betpack.com, Coral, guaranteed)

Just Marion has had a long season but her trainer Dave Evans isn't afraid of keeping his juveniles busy. She was even sent over to Ireland in early September, where she ran okay, but her form tailed off a bit after that. However, her recent Wolverhampton run was more promising and she finished out the seven furlongs well having got behind and been under pressure for most of the race. She was quite tenderly handled in the closing stages and there was probably a bit more in the locker. As a result I'm interested in her here, stepped up another furlong in trip and dropped 3lb in the handicap. This race is full of potential improvers but they aren't guaranteed to find stones for their handicap debuts and I can pick holes in most of them. Just Marion gets George Baker in the saddle for the first time and I'm hoping he rides her forward, because she isn't a turn of foot horse. If she runs to her best form, she can go close and she is a few points too big at 20/1. We'll play each-way and win.

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Afternoon bets:

One bet for this afternoon, with possible evening bets - details before 5.30pm either way.

4.20 Ludlow Old Pals Act 5pts win @ 5/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, Coral, William Hill, guaranteed)

This is a poor contest, and many of these have been failing to win in bad summer jumping contests, have been out of form, or look set to be unsuited by this sharp track and quickish ground (in the case of Wind And Waves). Old Pals Act's Market Rasen form would suggest that a sharp right handed track suits him well, and despite looking a quirky sort, he seems to be improving and looks overpriced at 5/1 here. He has gone up 9lb for his last win, but connections seem to be finding the key to him and this is a really clever piece of placement. It is essentially a poor 0-120 on a track that should suit. As a six year old son of Presenting, the selection is probably only finding his feet with the racing game and there should be plenty of improvement to come. He certainly travelled as if that would be the case at Market Rasen, and I think perhaps the 54 day break since could be a positive. Richie McLernon retains the ride, and his quiet style seems to suit the horse really well. Johnjo O'Neill hasn't had many winners in the past week outside of his Cheltenham double, and I think that might be part of the reason this horse isn't attracting interest. He looks the most progressive horse in here by some way and if he can continue his good recent form, he should go close here.

Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: +53.20 / year: +247.75

Wednesday 22nd October 2014

Just one selection for Wednesday - nothing makes appeal at Kempton this evening so out next e-mail will follow tomorrow.

4.10 Fontwell Boss In Boots 5pts win @ 6/1 (Generally guaranteed)

An interesting little handicap chase. Vikekhal has been well backed this morning following a decent chase debut. My issue with him is that he displayed an awkward head carriage in the closing stages of his race last time, and I'm not sure he is guaranteed to improve for that run eighteen days later. His stable haven't really hit top form yet and at the prices I'll take him on. Similarly, Alanjou looked a little bit slow on his chase debut, and I think his inability to lie up caused him to get behind horses which ultimately contributed to him being brought down. He will need more tactical speed at a track like Fontwell and I'm also happy to take him on - despite the fact that he jumps well. Seamus Mullins' Boss In Boots looks the value here at 6/1. He was well backed for his chase debut, but burst a blood vessel. He won next time out, and followed up with a well beaten second (behind a classy veteran) at Fontwell next time out. He has had a nice break since and I think he might improve for the step up in trip looking at his hurdles form. He jumps well, and the only caveat is that he can be keen on occasion. The rain has largely missed Fontwell and I think the ground will be perfect for this son of Kings' Theatre. 6/1+ looks very fair and he gets the call over the course specialist but more exposed Venetian Lad.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +64.20 / year: +258.75

Tuesday 21st October 2014

Just one bet for this evening.

8.30 Kempton Gigawatt 5pts win @ 9/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Represents Jim Boyle, who trains Perfect Pastime, who won for us yesterday. Gigawatt had a year off before making a pleasing return over seven furlongs here in August, in the race won by Galatian. He finished well under tender handling, having understandably been sent off 50/1. He has come on well since, and has put in two performances at Epsom and Wolverhampton (done in a photo) that suggest he is well handicapped off OR74. He drops back to six furlongs tonight, but it is interesting to note that he showed good tactical speed at Brighton five days ago before being eased right off. That was on heavy ground at a track he has never run at, so I'm prepared to forgive the run. This looks a weak 0-75 and his trainer must think so too, to turn him out relatively quickly. He has has four runs since his comeback in August and has been in training for two months at least, so I don't think bouncing is a problem. Pat Cosgrave takes the ride and if the selection can run to his Wolves or Epsom form, he can account for these. I'd hope he is ridden more prominently than he has been over seven - the stable are shrewd enough and the jockey knows the horse quite well - anything but being held up in the rear should suffice and the 9/1 available is too big.

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Afternoon bets:

One selection for Tuesday afternoon, and a possible evening bet - details either way before 5.30pm as usual.

5.50 Wolverhampton Larghetto 5pts win @ 6/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, William Hill, guaranteed, 11/2 generally guaranteed)

Larghetto is a course and distance winner (on polytrack) who transferred to Ian Williams earlier this year and has run a couple of good races since joining her new stable. However, it was noticeable that she didn't see out her race that well last time, having travelled easily into the contest. Williams is noted as a trainer who does well with horses who have had breathing problems, and I would imagine this mare has had some attention in that regard over the course of the summer. A first time tongue tie is applied this evening, and although that might set alarm bells ringing, you have to think she is well handicapped off OR60 if it helps her see out her race more strongly. The booking of Danny Tudhope would suggest connections very much mean business, and the fact that she is drawn three and can race prominently in a race devoid of much pace makes her very appealing at the current prices. We'll play win only; I'd make her a 9/2 shot on my book so the current prices look very fair.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: +69.20 / year: +263.75

Monday 20th October 2014

Just one selection for Monday.

4.50 Windsor Perfect Pastime 6pts win @ 4/1 (Bet 365, Skybet, Bet Victor, Ladbrokes, guaranteed) - WON 15c R4

Perfect Pastime was best of those on the near side at Brighton last time out, and in the old days he'd be a 5/2 shot in the morning here, but that isn't a trendy angle to use these days and he hasn't interested punters much this morning. He has been very progressive in 2014, with two wins and a number of creditable runs. Most of those were at Brighton, but he has good Windsor form on this sort of ground behind Links Drive Lady and I think he is a deserved favourite here. He handles heavy ground, and he showed an ability to travel well just off a strong pace over 5.5 furlongs last time which will stand him in good stead today. There is plenty of early speed on here, and if the selection can lay up over this bare five (which will in effect be more like five and a half given the field will tack across to the stands side) then the race should set up for him. He is well handicapped and appeals as a typical late maturing sprinter who is in the form of his life. 4/1 guaranteed is very fair and we'll play win only.

Profit & loss: day: +20.40 / month: +79.20 / year: +273.75

Saturday 18th October 2014

One selection for this evening.

6.15 Wolverhampton Poetic Choice 5pts win @ 15/2 (Skybet, guaranteed, 13/2 generally guaranteed)

Poetic Choice is by Byron, whose progeny are more profitable to back on artificial surfaces than on turf. The selection won impressively over six furlongs here last winter, and generally performed with credit until she went off the boil early this year. She rediscovered her form this summer, but seems best around this time of year and I'm hopeful she can carry on improving on this surface today. She hasn't raced yet on Tapeta but early indications are that many horses who handle polytrack perform to a similar level on the new surface. Based on her summer form, she appeals as well handicapped off OR75, and if she proves to be better on synthetics as I think she might be, then she can handle this field this evening. She has top weight to carry, but looks the best horse in the race and it looks a good piece of placement keeping her against her own sex. 13/2+ is fair and the booking of Luke Morris is a positive. A wide draw shouldn't be too much of an inconvenience over this trip.

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Afternoon bets:

Nice to see Sybarite do the job at 10/1 yesterday, he was good value for the winning margin and will win again before the season is out in my view.

Another cracking day's racing today, and we have two interests this afternoon. Possible evening bets before 5.30pm, details either way as usual.

2.35 Cheltenham Croco Bay 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 22/1 Betfred, Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed)

Current connections paid £70,000 for Croco Bay at Cheltenham in May, and they have presumably sent him to Ben Case with the intention of winning a big handicap with him. It is interesting he was sent to Galway for the festival there, and he ran well into third on ground that would have been too soft for him. He didn't find much at Worcester last time out, but it was an unusual run because he travelled well into the contest before not finding as much as looked likely close home. He was prominent in the market that day and one has to assume connections feel he is better than his current mark. Perhaps a bigger field and step up in trip could be the answer, and I think this looks a winnable race if he suddenly sparks into life. His stable done really well last year with the hurdler Deep Trouble, and they are a force to be reckoned with given the right ammunition. Daryl Jacob retains the ride here, and I just wonder if he'll bury him out the back and bring him into the race as late as possible. Croco Bay's jumping is very solid, and that will stand him in good stead around here. We're taking a chance on a relative dark horse, but that is certainly factored into the odds and if today's conditions bring about improvement, the price might look silly after the race.

4.05 Ascot Ruler Of The World 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 7/1 / 13/2 (Generally guaranteed - Bet 365, Skybet, Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Coral all pay 1/4 1-2-3)

Ruler Of The World comes into this race off the back of a light campaign and he appears to have been aimed at this contest some time in advance. His Prix Foy win showed he has trained on as a four year old, and he got closer to Treve in this year's Arc than he did as a three year old. He followed his Arc run last year with an excellent third in this race, pulling well clear with Faarh and Cirrus Des Aigles and only giving best by three quarters of a length. That came after a long campaign - his first season to race - and I think there was additional merit in the performance given the wide trip he suffered. He has a much better draw today and connections will surely want to ride him prominently. Last year's race was slowly run due to the Godolphin pacemaker Hunter's Light setting easy fractions, but with Noble Mission in the line up I expect the pace to be at least fair - I wouldn't be surprised to see Joseph O'Brien make it himself if he needs to. Track trip and ground are perfect for the selection, he is a proper Group 1 horse unlike many of these, and I think he can fight this out with Cirrus Des Aigles. At the prices and with 1/4 odds being offered by many bookmakers, it makes sense to play each-way and win.

Profit & loss: day: -16.00 / month: +58.80 / year: +253.35

Friday 17th October 2014

A fantastic day's racing, whether flat or jumps is your thing. From here on in, the Breeder's Cup aside, I'll mostly be concentrating on the jumps and all weather racing, and Cheltenham's excellent card today throws up two races of interest.

We may have evening bets, details as usual before 5.30pm.

2.40 Cheltenham Thomas Crapper 5pts win @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 9/2 generally guaranteed)

Robin Dickin tends to do better with chasers than hurdlers, so it is testament to this horse's talent that he managed two wins at this course over hurdles last season. He has always looked to me like he would make a better chaser -  the shape he makes and the way he jumps a hurdle suggests he should take well to the larger obstacles. I would imagine connections had planned a mixed hurdle / chase campaign last year, but having won his first two races over hurdles it probably made sense to stick to them for the rest of the season. The stable recently had a novice chase winner at Towcester, and this looks a good starting point for a chaser that I think may take over from Restless Harry as the stable's flagship horse. Court Minstrel is the horse to beat, but he wasn't tested much on his debut and may not be suited by chasing around here. Un Ace is talented and could really take to fences, but the selection is my preference at the prices given his record fresh and course form. 9/2+ is very fair.

3.15 Cheltenham

Sybarite 4pts win @ 8/1 (Generally guaranteed) - WON @ 10/1 sp

Abolitionist 2pts win @ Betfair SP

Some of the market principals here aren't guaranteed stayers, and a look through the last few winners of this contest would suggest you really need to stay, as if that wasn't a no brainer already over this stiff three miles. Sybarite has won over further and has been a revelation since connections abandoned his chasing campaign and returned him to hurdles last winter. After a poor run at Ascot, he was stepped up to three miles and his form figures at this trip and further since read 2411. This is only his ninth hurdles start, and he looks unexposed to me off a mark of OR125. He appeals as the type to progress again this season and his trainer tends to have his horses ready sooner rather than later.

The booking of a top 5lb claimer to ride Abolitionist takes the eye. He is a veteran of 27 career starts already despite only being a six year old, but he has improved over the summer since stepping up to marathon distances and there might still be more to come off a mark of OR115. He stayed on strongly at the finish behind Thekingofconnemara last time out, and it is interesting his three hurdles wins have come in big fields, including a 1/24 at Punchestown which, like Cheltenham, is a very stiff track. He has been supported this morning, but I think he'll drift a little on the exchanges before the off and I'd hope to get a bit better than the current 14/1 on offer by playing at Betfair SP.

Profit & loss: day: +33.00 / month: +74.80 / year: +269.35

Thursday 16th October 2014

One selection for this afternoon, with possible evening bets to follow - details either way before 5.30pm.

4.15 Punchestown Roi Du Mee 5pts win @ 7/2 (Generally guaranteed)

Gordon Elliot's string are in really good form, and the Meath trainer had a treble at Punchestown yesterday. His Roi Du Mee has a record of 112 in this contest, and has won this race on his seasonal debut before. You would have to think this has been his early season target for a while now, and even though Bryan Cooper opts for Don Cossack, I think the selection is better value at the current prices. I'd think both Don Cossack and Alderwood will have other targets ahead, and may just get looked after today. Paul Carberry takes the ride on Roi Du Mee and I made him a 5/2 shot after Rubi Light's withdrawl, so we're getting a point better than what I believe to be his true odds.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +41.80 / year: +236.35

Wednesday 15th October 2014

An early selection for Lingfield.

1.30 Lingfield Sea Of Red 2pts each-way @ 16/1 (Skybet, guaranteed, 12/1 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP. - E/W 3rd

Sarsted made a really nice debut and deserves to be favourite here, but should he fail to fire or handle this surface, then Sea Of Red might be able to cause a minor shock. He is a well made colt by Duke Of Marmalade, whose progeny have a very good record on artificial surfaces. The selection was very green on his debut two weeks ago, but really got the hand of things late on and finished his race very well. If he can travel a bit better in the early stages of today's race, he will be a danger to all over this longer trip. He is bred to be winning at about a mile this year, and he shaped as though it would suit on that promising debut. I think anything in double figures is a fair price. With the market shaped as it is, there is a chance of the Betfair SP on the win market being inflated due to the presence of an odds on favourite. With that in mind, we'll stake as above.

Profit & loss: day: +1.80 / month: +46.80 / year: +241.35

Tuesday 14th October 2014

Just one selection for today; I found it a really difficult day to find an edge or angle in with most of the races.

6.30 Wolverhampton Steelriver 5pts win @ 9/2 (Generally guaranteed) - WON

This is a bet that will probably be won or lost at the start of the contest. Steelriver sometimes starts slowly, and if he gets a poor early position over this seven furlong trip with the first bend coming up quickly, then the likelihood is he will struggle to win. However, I find the booking of Robert Winston really interesting here. He is an intelligent jockey who can generally (although not always) be depended upon to do the right thing: he seems to have an awareness of rail biases, pace and other such intricacies that many jockeys don't factor in. Steelriver ran a really good race here last time, and had the field pretty much cooked before fading badly late on. That was after he missed the break and raced keenly, and all of this off the back of a break. It seems safe to assume he just got tired late on, and although he is up in the weights today, I would suggest he will improve for this trainer, who is having a very good year. There are quite a few hold up horses in here, and I'm hoping Winston can sit in third or fourth off a slow pace, and send his mount for home getting an early run on the likes of Plucky Dip and Footstepsintherain, both of whom are finishers. If Steelriver can get that decent early position, I'd make him a 2/1 shot to go on and win the race based on that last run. I'm happy to take the chance on him at 9/2 with the jockey booking an important variable is deciding that he is worth the risk.

Profit & loss: day: +22.50 / month: +45.00 / year: +239.55

Saturday 11th October 2014

Two bets for us this afternoon, as well as possible evening bets to follow before 5.30pm.

Just a note that I'm still working on our winter schedule. I had promised it for Wednesday but opening up the fixture list was a bit of a Pandora's Box and it's taking longer than I had anticipated.

1pt each-way double on today's selections - 13/2 and 7/2 generally guaranteed.

3.20 Hexham Mister Wall Street 3pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 7/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 13/2 generally guaranteed)

Many of Lucinda Russell's horses are running below form, and as a result I'd be quite keen to take on Clondaw Knight at a short price, under a big weight on his seasonal reappearance. Mister Wall Street is a three time Hexham winner who seems to love this place, and is value for much more than the winning margin of his chase win here in June, as he was dossing in the closing stages. His Bangor run in July suggests to me that he might make a better chaser than hurdler. He went down fighting against two decent horses who have followed up since,Valleyofmilan and Prince De Marais. He is 2lb lower now than he was for that run, which strikes me as a bit of a quirk of handicapping, leaving him only 4lb higher than the relatively comfortable course win in June. He is no superstar, but he looks the best handicapped horse in this race to me by some way, and this race may have been his target for the last few weeks - his recent Sedgefield spin looked like a pipe opener after a few weeks break. With the dead eight lining up, he looks a very attractive each-way proposition at the prices.

4.20 Chepstow Dormello Mo 5pts win @ 7/2 (Generally guaranteed)

There is enough ego and will to win within the Paul Nicholls camp that I'm sure they would have wanted to target this decent prize of £25,000 with a decent horse. Dormello Mo looks a classy type of horse who will be well suited to this galloping track in my view, based on the evidence of his Sandown win last season. Things didn't go right for him at Newbury after that, but he always looked like a bit of a "next year's horse" and he may have been put away after that with a race like this in mind, his trainer knowing that a hurdles mark of OR130 is well within his capabilities. Conditions should be fine here and I'm not a big fan of Dawalan, Henderson's representative. Manhattan Swing looked a bit awkward in the closing stages last time and I don't think he's certain to follow that run up, while Bertimont looks flattered by his Fairyhouse run (sat handy in a race run at a crawl) and I'm not tempted even with his trainer in good form. This could be between the top two in the betting and although Dawalan has the better jockey, the selection appeals as better handicapped and perhaps the horse with more potential. He is also around twice the price of Dawalan and we'll support him as a result.

Profit & loss: day: -14.00 / month: +22.50 / year: +217.05

Friday 10th October 2014

Just one for this evening.

6.50 Wolverhampton Dreams Of Reality 5pts win @ 10/1 (Generally guaranteed)

There's loads of speed on in this sprint, and I can see an absolute burn up as they approach the first bend. I can count at least five horses who like to try and make all, so it is safe to assume this will be run at a strong pace. Many of these are not proven on the surface, and strictly speaking that goes for Dreams Of Reality too as she hasn't won on Tapeta. However, her form figures on polytrack read 2110, and I think that counts for a lot given early evidence comparing polytrack with Tapeta. She was only beaten on debut, and at right handed Kempton last time out when she hung left off the bend. She has had a nice break, but her trainer tends to have his horses ready and the bonus here is her draw in stall 5 and the fact that she can travel strongly off a strong pace, buried in mid pack. Her running style is quite simply perfect for this contest, and judging on her Lingfield win in Spring (trapped wide and still won handy) there is more to come from her this winter. Richard Kingscote rides this track particularly well and I like backing his horses in sprints. With only 1/5 odds paid for a place, I'm inclined to play win only.

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Afternoon bets:

One for this afternoon, and possible evening bets before 5.30pm.

4.30 Newton Abbot Russia With Love 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 20/1 (Totesport, Betfred, guaranteed, 18/1 Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

Chris Down usually has his horses ready first time up, but Russia With Love seems to reserve her best specifically for her first visit to the track after a break, and in particular on soft ground, which makes her of plenty of interest in this mares' handicap. If we exclude her debut, which she might have been expected to need, her form figures after an absence off 100+ days read 21163. She has been pulled up on her last two starts and broke blood vessels last time out, but she is the type of horse who could throw up a surprise when least expected in these conditions. It is interesting connections persevere with her as an eight year old: she has already won twice and must be of some value as a broodmare. It follows that connections must feel there is more to come off a handicap mark of OR108, and although the handicapper hasn't relented much of late she has run better than that mark before. If her trainer has her right today, she has her ideal conditions under which to show her best, and at the prices she appeals because the pair of market leaders don't look like Quevegas in the making. We'll play each-way and win.

Profit & loss: day: -1.00 / month: +36.50 / year: +231.05