Monday 6th January 2014

Two selections at Southwell.

12.55 Southwell High Ron 5pts win @ 9/1 (Generally guaranteed) - WON

Southwell will take a hell of a lot of getting today, and I have little doubt in my mind that High Ron will act on the heavy ground. He is by a sire, Rainbow High, that has produced almost exclusively soft / heavy ground specialists from limited opportunities, and his knee action suggests that he will be another progeny to follow suit. He has some chase form from Towcester last year, and although he has disappointed since, the stable have largely been out of sorts. a recent winner and one or two running well suggests they are now firing again, and in a poor contest the selection looks too big to ignore at the prices.

1.55 Southwell Silent Knight 1pt each-way @ 8/1 / 7/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 3pts win @ Betfair SP

Represents another yard who have been quiet, but were much better in November and December. I don't think No No Mac sets an exacting standard here and the point winner Silent Knight is suggested against him. His sire Pierre also produces plenty of soft ground progeny, and the selection is an Irish point winner on soft ground. He is bred for this trip over hurdles, and having cost a £20,000 connections must feel he has plenty of ability. I think he is overpriced here in relation to the market leaders, and we'll play to get around 55% of our stake back should he run a place. A potentially decent Betfair SP could produce a nice win dividend.

Profit & loss: day: +40.00 / month: +57.50 / year: +57.50

Sunday 5th January 2014

Just a note that I'm still formulating a few ideas for the e-mail I promised about the service in 2014, I will release it in the next few days.

A nice winner with Indian Jack yesterday, one selection for this afternoon:

2.10 Southwell The Lock Master 5pts win @ 6/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Frontier Fighter is very good on this surface, but is a doubtful stayer in this class of race over a mile and may be vulnerable to a strong finisher over the distance. Greyfriarschorista is the obvious one to take him on with, but he struggles to put two wins together back to back and at today's weights I think The Lock Master is the bet. He tends to drop himself out early doors, but he should be at peak fitness now and his stable remain in fine form. If he avoid getting to far out of his ground early, he might find the market leaders duelling in the straight and I think he can pick them off late on if the two claimers go a stride too quick. 6/1 is very fair and he looks the bet of the day.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +17.50 / year: +17.50

Saturday 4th January 2014

Lingfield's card is decent and we have two selections there.

2.00 Lingfield Presumido 5pts win @ 5/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Won impressively over course and distance last time out and appears to have been put away for this race. The 5lb claimer has been riding quite well and knows the horse from last time out. A 5lb rise underestimates what Presumido achieved last time out (won very cosily) and he is taken to defeat Joyously, whom he looks fairly closely matched with but is 2.5 times the price of.

3.45 Lingfield Indian Jack 5pts win @ 8/1 (Bet 365, Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 15/2 generally guaranteed) - WON

Ran well in a handicap here on his penultimate run and that race looks stronger than todays. Luke Morris is booked to ride and the stable have a history of sending out big Saturday winners at this track during the winter season. The Great Gabrial, who is 3/3 at this course, is probably his biggest danger, but Indian Jack might just have a class edge on him. The selection has run well after a similar break in the past, and the jockey booking would suggest new connections have him fit after his break and are keen to get a win under his belt.

Profit & loss: day: +32.50 / month: +22.50 / year: +22.50

Friday 3rd January 2013

One early selection for Friday. An additional bet may follow before 2.00pm.

1.00 Southwell Zaitsev 1pt each-way AND 3pts win @ 10/1 (Totesport, Betfred, guaranteed, 9/1 generally guaranteed)

Zaitsev is by Refuse To Bend, a sire whose progeny do really well at Southwell (24% strike rate), and he was well punted on debut at this track when he seemed to travel well on the surface but was very green. He is a big horse, and has since grown into his frame and won a couple of handicaps over the summer. He still looks fairly treated as a horse with physicaly scope, off a mark of OR74. Robert Winston is booked to ride and with the stable in really good form at present, the selection makes plenty of appeal against the favourite, who had to work very hard to get the job done last time out.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -10.00 / year: -10.00

Thursday 2nd January 2014

Just one for today.

2.00 Southwell Caldercruix 1pt each-way AND 3pts win @ 10/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Caldercruix was probably unfit before Christmas when he had two starts here, one over an inadequate five furlongs and on over a mile where he showed up much better before fading out of contention late on. Much better can be expected today over his ideal course and distance from a good draw. He has been dropped to a mark just above his last winning one, and has the assistance of a claimer who is worth his 7lb. Tellovoi is probably a worthy favourite but at the prices the selection looks too big - I make him a 7/1 shot at biggest, and he is worth backing here at double figure odds.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -5.00 / year: -5.00

Tuesday 31st December 2013

One selection for Lingfield this afternoon.

2.30 Lingfield Emkanaat 1pt each-way @ 16/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 2pts win @ Betfair SP

Emkanaat has a very decent record over seven furlongs on the all weather, and seems to go best at this track. I think he was given a poor ride by Louis Steward last time out, when he was sent on and never really looked comfortable leading. The fractions were probably too strong, and added to that I'm not sure the horse will have been in 100% condition following a five week break. He reappears today and although this is a strong race, the selection's form behind Brother Tiger looks amongst the best on offer and I think he is overpriced at the odds. I'm not too sure about David Kenny, but the horse isn't that difficult a ride and once he gets some amount of cover he should be able to use his finishing kick to effect. First time blinkers are applied.

Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: -41.25 / year: +327.20

Monday 30th December 2013

Just one for Monday.

3.05 Haydock No Duffer 1pt each-way AND 3pts win @ 12/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed, 11/1 generally guaranteed)

This doesn't look like a nrace full of unexposed sorts, and a chance is taken on the horse in the field who is probably more unexposed than any of his rivals. No Duffer was down to run on Boxing Day, but that meeting was abandoned and he has been rerouted to Haydock. Henry Daly's yard are in good form and it is no secret that he lines his horses up to win on Boxing Day, so it is likely the selection has been prepared to win on this run. He has shown only moderate form over hurdles, but was described by his trainer as an out and out chaser and he is likely to improve over the bigger obstacles. He looked inexperienced at Warwick where it all happened a bit quickly for him, but the trainer's other Novice Chaser to have been out this season improved markedly for his first start over fences and I would expect this more galloping track to suit No Duffer better than Warwick's tight turns. Double figures is too big in this field and we'll have a total of five points on.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -37.25 / year: +331.20

Saturday 28th December 2013

Some excellent racing today but just one interest for us.

1.15 Newbury Faultless Feelings 5pts win @ 7/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Represents a trainer and jockey who will be on a high after landing the Feltham on Boxing Day. Faultless Feelings is a much better chaser than he was hurdler, and looked an out and out stayer when winning at Uttoxeter two runs back. I think he needs a galloping track, and although I don't feel cheltenham suited on his next start, he ran on really well towards the finish, suggesting to me that there is more to come. Ludlow was a bad piece of placement next time out, it is a sharp track which was never going to suit him. The step up to a marathon distance on a galloping track with his required ground looks set to bring about the required improvement today and he looks by some way the best bet at around 7/1+.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -32.25 / year: +336.20

Thursday 26th December 2013

2.00 Kempton Green Flag 5pts win @ 9/2 (Paddy Power, guaranteed, 4/1 generally guaranteed)

Kempton has taken 70mm of rain in the last few days and I can't imagine the going will be anything but heavy come race time on Boxing Day. I make this a match between the two market leaders, and with Green Flag looking a thorough stayer who handles heavy ground well, he gets the nod. I can't believe the price discrepancy is as great as it is. The selection is by Milan, whose progeny's actual versus expected ratio on soft and heavy ground increases by +0.20, which is very respectable. I'm not sure Just A Par will handle the conditions as well looking at his action, and although the Nicholls horse has more gears, Lucinda Russell's gelding stays very strongly and jumps superbly. I find it really interesting she sends him down, I think he is the best horse in her yard and he is taken to cause a minor shock in the contest won by Dynaste last year. 4/1+ is too big and I expect the price to shorten as the race draws nearer.

December 26th 3:10 Kempton William Hill King George VI Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 3m

Selection: Dynaste 6pts win @ 7/2 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 10/3 generally guaranteed)

With Dynaste proven over course and distance, and proven on heavy ground, and a career best performance on ratings behind him on his seasonal reappearance, he looks a very strong bet to put the Pipe team back in the big time on Boxing Day. In fact, I think there is evidence enough in the markets to suggest he might go off favourite, meaning it is a good idea to support him at guaranteed odds now rather than on the day itself. The selection was impressive when winning the Feltham Novices Chase on this card twelve months ago, and has progressed well since despite underperforming under entirely different conditions at Cheltenham in March. He should be a lot fitter today than he was in the Betfair Chase, and he probably travelled best of all there before tiring in the closing stages. Deeper ground will suit him better than Cue Card, and I think the betting public will cotton on to that on the day and shorten up his price. I wasn't impressed with Al Ferof's jumping at Ascot, and I'm not keen on supporting a horse at his price after such a long absence, with only a jog around in a two runner race to prep him. Nor do I see any reason why Silviniaco Conti will reverse form with the selection. Take Dynaste to improve again and land this Grade 1, on the way to possible further success at one of the Spring festivals.

Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: -27.25 / year: +341.20

Saturday 21st December 2013

Two races of interest today.

3.35 Ascot 

Chris Pea Green 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed) -  E/W 4th

Irish Saint 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Generally guaranteed) 

I've deliberately delayed today's selections until after Ascot's first race to determine the state of the ground. Tony McCoy says it is heavy, and the visual impression confirms it. This is going to take a lot of getting, so I'm looking for horses who handle heavy ground and are fit and likely to stay.

Chris Pea Green likes the ground on the soft side and he stayed on really well behind Pine Creek on his penultimate run, before he found the track and ground a little less testing last time out at Newbury. He seems to enjoy Ascot and he still looks progressive to me; as a horse who looks almost certain to run his race and to enjoy the prevailing conditions, with no doubts about fitness and a good claimer taking off 3lb, he is very tempting at the prices.

Irish Saint has been overlooked, but I give him a real chance here if he is none the worse for his fall last time out. He travelled really well in that Newbury contest, but looked like he needed the race badly and probably fell due to tiredness more than anything else. He looks a chaser in the making and seems to be a horse who stays well, and I think the demands of this contest will be right up his street. He looks well handicapped with Rolling star based on January's Cheltenham run and I would hope he is held on to a bit longer and ridden with some confidence. 25/1 looks far too big for a horse with some strong juvenile hurdling form who represents a trainer in fine form.

3.40 Lingfield Countess Lovelace 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 16/1 (Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, guaranteed, 14/1 generally guaranteed)

Countess Lovelace has one piece of form over ten furlongs here which entitles her to plenty of respect in this 0-65. The form of her maiden second over ten furlongs has worked out extremely well. the winner Ray Ward followed up next time out and is now rated OR95, the third Edwyn Ralph also won next time out and bagged another all weather handicap at Southwell, now rated OR76 on the surface. They pulled well clear with a Gosden horse who is unraced since, and the visual impression of that contest suggested the selection would have no problem with 12 furlongs. Her sire Byron's progeny are profitable to back on the all weather, with an a/e value of 1.12 suggesting they are underbet, so I would have no problem forgiving her her sole turf run at Windsor.

More interesting again is the booking of Luke Morris, which suggests the ho9rse might be fit and ready to go after an absence. A quick check of the trainer's stats with horses absent for 100+ days throws up some very interesting figures. From 67 horses in the last ten years, nine have won after a similar absence, with a further four placed. The winners tend to be very much underbet, with an a/e ration of 1.64 suggesting the trainer's horses with this profile should be followed. At 14/1+ in a moderate contest, the selection makes plenty of appeal at the prices and should be backed each-way and win.

Profit & loss: day: -5.50 / month: -16.25 / year: +352.20

Friday 20th December 2013

Two interests for Wolverhampton.

1pt each-way double on this evening's selections, 5/2 and 9/2 or 9/4 and 5/1 generally guaranteed.

4.50 Wolverhampton Alben Star 5pts win @ 5/2 (Paddy Power, guaranteed, 9/4 generally guaranteed)

Looks rock solid here off top weight, in a race that amounts to a drop in class having acquitted himself really well in the big Lingfield handicap two days ago. He didn't run the bend too well at Lingfield, and I think the sharpness of the track caught him out as much as anything. He didn't have a hard race, and as a course and distance winner with proven strong recent form, he is selected to defeat the opposition this evening. Trinityelitedotcom has been well backed but has to defy an absence, Iptisam may not be the heartiest and has to prove it at the trip, while Frontier Fighter might be better on fibresand and also steps back in trip and is untested over the six. Of the others Al's Memory should run his race, but the selection actually looks decent value at the odds and we'll include him in an each-way double too.

7.00 Wolverhampton Our Golden Girl 4pts win @ 5/1 (Generally guaranteed)

A desperate contest, and this looks to me to be at the mercy of the consistent and quite likeable Our Golden Girl. She doesn't set the world on fire, but she is the type of horse who puts her head down and battles when asked, and she has been unlucky on a couple of occasions in bumping into well treated rivals. This is a nice piece of placement, because she gets a three year old allowance and weight off some bad horses, with a decent 7lb claimer Matthew Hopkins booked into the bargain. The danger is an on form Monzino, but he is as likely to finish last as first and he tends to drop himself out as he pleases. I am convince he is better at shorter and the selection makes plenty of appeal at 5/1.

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Afternoon bets:

We're not overloaded in the way of betting opportunities this afternoon. There is a small chance of an evening bet, before 4.00pm, just one race of interest this afternoon:

1.40 Southwell

Solent Lad 3pts win @ 10/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Tortoise 1pt each-way @ 33/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

A really interesting little contest despite it's low graded status. I don't think Hot Stock is particularly good, so he makes little appeal at 11/8, nor does Big Kenny, who has no fibresand experience and is too short at 10/3. Masterpaver has little in his run style or pedigree that suggests he will enjoy fibresand, and I don't think Chanceuse is that good either. They all look short at their respective odds and I'm very tempted to take them on with two at bigger prices.

Solent Lad has the U.S.A. suffix, which means he is likely to enjoy the surface given his dirt pedigree. He is probably bigger than he should be because people are looking at the sire English Channel, who has no all weather winners in the U.K. thus far and was more of a turf performer. However, the sample size is small and he is by Smart Strike, and so has a dirt pedigree himself. The dam's side also contains a listed class winner who won impressively on fibresand, so there is every chance this keen going sort will improve for the switch in surfaces.

Tortoise has little in her pedigree to suggest fibresand will be her bag, but her trainer's horses do tend to run well here and she looks far too big at 33/1. She travels well and takes a good grip of the bridle, which suggests she might act on this surface. Her trainer's winter horses are only just coming to hand and there should be improvement in her from her last Wolverhampton run. That was over an extended mile, and she travelled quite well for a long way in what was a much better race than this. If she improves again, she is no 33/1 shot here.

Profit & loss: day: -17.00 / month: -10.75 / year: +357.70

Thursday 19th December 2013

5.30 Kempton Kindlelight storm 5pts win @ 5/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Most of these look on the downgrade, but Kindlelight Storm looks progressive and is probably better suited to Kempton than Wolverhampton, where he ran with credit but never quite faced the kickback last time out (didn't bend well either). The selection is a big horse, and Kempton's long home straight suits him well. I make this between the top two in the market, and I think he is too big at the current odds with the favourite trading under 2/1 in most places.

7.30 Kempton Al Raqeeb 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 16/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Al Raqeeb travels really well in his races, and was an eyecatcher at Wolverhampton last time out when he patently failed to see out the extended mile trip having travelled all over some decent polytrack horses. He has previously gone close over a mile at Lingfield and he looks a cert to appreciate the step back to seven furlongs this evening. His trainer is making a decent name for himself and the booking of Luke Morris is a major positive, and his draw in stall ten means he should be able to tuck in and get some cover before they hit the bend (there's a decent run before the bend over the seven furlongs here).

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Afternoon bets:

One for Southwell this afternoon, evening bets for Kempton will follow before 4.00pm.

2.30 Southwell Ichimoku 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 20/1 (Betfred, guaranteed, 18/1 Bet 365, Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed)

The best bets usually come from knowing something that is not factored into the pricing of the horse, and we have a classic example of that here which explains the decent sized stake. Ichimoku was well backed on his reappearance over this course and distance the other day, and I kept a close eye on him as a result. Straight away I noticed (confirmed by numerous views of the replay) that Jacob Butterfield took a pull on the gelding as he left the gates, leaving him sitting in behind the rest of the horses and facing a huge amount of kickback, which he completely resented. I think that run is worth completely striking off, and I would expect much better today with Joe Fanning booked to ride. The selection's previous course and distance run came on only his second career start, where he still looked a bit weak but travelled well to the fore, before the more mature horses outfinished him. That race worked out very well for the grade, and the selection looks unexposed on this surface based on his previous form here. His Newcastle win in May suggests he is well handicapped enough to win this, and with his breeding offering further encouragement (closely related to Southwell winner Headache) he looks way overpriced at 18/1+ in this company.

Profit & loss: day: -15.00 / month: +6.25 / year: +374.70

Wednesday 18th December 2013

Two selections for this evening.

4.50 Kempton Royal Bajan 5pts win @ 4/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 7/2 generally guaranteed)

Royal Bajan looks to be at the top of his game at the moment and, as a horse who does not need to lead, he makes plenty of appeal here under the excellent Tom Queally despite a wide draw. He is a dual course and distance winner, and his last effort at Southwell from a wide draw represented a career best.There is enough pace in this race to suggest that something in mid pack or held up in rear can land the spoils, and not many of these rivals appear to be in good enough form to cope with the selection. I make him an 11/4 shot on my tissue so anything around 7/2+ should be taken.

6.50 Kempton Sea Spear 4pts win @ 10/1 / 9/1 (Generally guaranteed)

David Barron can get horses ready first time up, including juveniles, and I find it really interesting he sends the selection down to Kempton this evening to contest what looks a winnable race. Those who have form in the book don't set an exacting standard, and clients will remember that we've had success with Barron trained debutants already this season, when we backed Red Stargazer at 16/1 up at Ayr. It is a bit of a journey for a juvenile at this time of the season and I think Barron targets these Maiden Auction events too. Sea Spear is related to a number of good all weather horses, and with his profile not looking like that of a handicap project, a chance is taken on him making a winning debut at a decent price.

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Afternoon bets:

12.30 Lingfield King's Request 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 20/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Stamina has to be taken on trust here, but King's Request is by New Approach out of a half sister to a Kentucky Derby runner up, so there is every chance on pedigree and visual evidence that two miles will be to the selections liking. He was noted putting in an improved performance at Kempton on his penultimate run, but failed to back that up last time out at this track. That was in a much better contest than todays, however, and he didn't get the best of rides - he seen far too much daylight and the way the race developed didn't suit him at all. Liam Jones takes the ride again today and I'm sure he'll get plenty more cover in mid pack. I think the trip could be the making of him, and trainer Laura Mongan has a history of getting all weather staying winners with switchers from other yards. The selection gets a useful three year old allowance off all but one of his rivals, and I think 20/1+ is an underestimation of his chances.

Profit & loss: day: -13.00 / month: +21.25 / year: +389.70

Tuesday 17th December 2013

Two selections for today.

1pt each-way double on today's selections, 7/1 and 14/1 generally guaranteed)

1.30 Southwell Day Star Lad 4pts win @ 15/2 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 7/1 generally guaranteed)

Has elements in his pedigree which suggest this surface will be to his liking, and represents a stable whose horses do well at this track, including two year olds moving into their three year old season around December and January (think Shawkantango). The selection was clearly outpaced last time over five furlongs at Wolverhampton, but stayed on very nicely despite having had a serious dose of kickback in his face. The step up to six furlongs will definitely suit him, and a good draw in stall eight means he can stay wide and ease his way into the race. The market leaders don't look any great shakes and I think he can pick them up late; 7/1+ is good value.

2.30 Southwell Flirtinaskirt 4pts win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed)

This is another 5f sprint loaded with pace, and Martin Harley was seen to great effect on Bedloe's Island in a similar contest last week, producing his mount with a well timed winning challenge. The selection is relatively unexposed, and already has a course and distance win to her name as well as a fair second. She hasn't been in form just lately but has probably been trained for these five furlong Southwell sprints and better can be expected off OR67 today. The booking of the excellent Harley is the icing on the cake and 14/1 is too big up against quite a few exposed performers who only have one way of running - ie. from the front.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: +34.25 / year: +402.70

Monday 16th December 2013

One race of interest on a quiet Monday.

1.30 Ffos Las

Off The Wall 4pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Gospel Preacher 3pts win @ 8/1 (Generally guaranteed)

An interesting Novice Handicap Chase, with the favourite Royal Riviera looking an honest enough if limited type who is probably there to be shot at by anything that shows improvement. David Pipe's Off The Wall is by Presenting, and was always likely to be a chaser in the making. This is his debut over the larger obstacles, but he has some reasonable hurdles for that puts him in with a shout here, including on soft ground. Blinkers are applied, which is a slight concern, but connections did suggest they may have been riding him wrong last year sending him on from the front, and I think they might try and hold him up here and use the blinkers to help him focus on his jumping. 5/1 looks too big in this company.

The biggest danger is probably Gospel Preacher. He has been quietly supported this morning, and if he comes on for his Plumpton run it is easy to see why. He jumped well in the main and travelled sweetly until the last circuit going downhill at Plumpton, when he began to fade quickly. The concern is that he has done that before, but he is entitled to have needed that run and he is a huge horse, with plenty of scope for fences. This flat track will suit him really well and I expect more money to come for him before the off. We can take a nice profit if either selection wins by staking as above.

Profit & loss: day: -7.00 / month: +44.25 / year: +412.70

Saturday 14th December 2013

Two selections for today, possible evening bets to follow.

2.25 Cheltenham Silver Roque 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Not a top renewal of this race, and the vibes don't seem to be strong for John's Spirit following up his Paddy Power win last month. Even so, I was impressed with Silver Roque's Sedgefield win and I think he is overpriced at 20/1 for this much more prestigious prize. He has a nice style of running in that he can get into a good rhythm and jut pop around, picking the fences off one by one, and with a good pace likely this afternoon I think there is every chance this race could set up for him. Paddy Brennan takes the ride in place of Timmy Murphy and I think the booking is a real positive.

2.55 Southwell Newsreader 3pts each-way @ 4/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Newsreader looks an each-way bet to nothing here against Dan Emmett, who was impressive on his debut despite greenness. The selection is a fine stamp of a horse, who represents a trainer with an excellent record at this track. He carries the U.S.A. suffix which is as good a predictor of horses who will act on this surface as any, and his running style and action both suggest he will flourish on fibresand. I quite liked his Kempton run last time and, although he has been somewhat slow to come to hand, I expect an improved performance this afternoon and think he probably has a better chance of winning than odds of 4/1 imply.

Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: +51.25 / year: +419.70

Friday 13th December 2013

Our 33/1 shot traded 1.42 in running last night and it was almost an early Christmas, not to be unfortunately - not quite yet!

Two for today, possible evening bets to follow before 4.00pm.

2.30 Southwell Corn Maiden 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 13/2 (Bet Victor, Ladbrokes, William Hill, Betfair Sportsbook, guaranteed)

Corn Maiden has posted three good efforts from three visits here, winning once and excused her latest course run on account of her getting worked up and loose before the start. She has been progressive in 2013 and although her speed figures aren't up there with the best of these, she is guaranteed to stay unlike many, knows how to win, and seems to be on an upward curve, so I would suggest the good course figures may come in due course. Yasir looks a bit of a monkey at times, Queen Of Skies might improve for the surface but her dam's side gives some cause for concern on that score and I don't quite like the look of her physically with this track in mind, and Maakir looks a doubtful stayer. I think the selection represents really good value at the prices and Paddy Aspell has been noted riding this track well. Stall eleven presents no problem at all over this distance.

3.15 Cheltenham Abruzzi 1pt each-way AND 3pts win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

I have it in mind to take on the top four in the market here, as I'm not sure how strong their early season form is and I think Southfield Theatre might be better on a flat track. Abruzzi comes into this contest completely unexposed, and he should be ready to peak on what will be his third run of the season. His trainer is in fine form, and this looks a good piece of placement with the selection carrying just 9-9 up the hill with Ben Poste claiming 5lb off the bottom weight. The selection has run two nice races so far this season, and although this looks stronger the selection looks an out and out stayer and I expect the hill to be in his favour. A look through his form brings up a Towcester Novice Hurdle victory from this time last year, where he beat the useful Up To Something 2 3/4 lengths, with Angles Hill a further eight lengths back in third. He was off level weights with Angles Hill that day, although he carried 6lb less on the day due to the riders' claim. It is interesting, then, that Angles Hill has to give the selection 5lb today (both riders claim 5lb) and it gives us an indication that Abruzzi might be the better bet. He does look very unexposed, and if he takes to the stiff track as expected, I would fancy him to go close to winning. We'll cover most of our stake in case of a place by staking as above.

Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: +62.25 / year: +430.70