Two races of interest today.
Chris Pea Green 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed) - E/W 4th
Irish Saint 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Generally guaranteed)
I've deliberately delayed today's selections until after Ascot's first race to determine the state of the ground. Tony McCoy says it is heavy, and the visual impression confirms it. This is going to take a lot of getting, so I'm looking for horses who handle heavy ground and are fit and likely to stay.
Chris Pea Green likes the ground on the soft side and he stayed on really well behind Pine Creek on his penultimate run, before he found the track and ground a little less testing last time out at Newbury. He seems to enjoy Ascot and he still looks progressive to me; as a horse who looks almost certain to run his race and to enjoy the prevailing conditions, with no doubts about fitness and a good claimer taking off 3lb, he is very tempting at the prices.
Irish Saint has been overlooked, but I give him a real chance here if he is none the worse for his fall last time out. He travelled really well in that Newbury contest, but looked like he needed the race badly and probably fell due to tiredness more than anything else. He looks a chaser in the making and seems to be a horse who stays well, and I think the demands of this contest will be right up his street. He looks well handicapped with Rolling star based on January's Cheltenham run and I would hope he is held on to a bit longer and ridden with some confidence. 25/1 looks far too big for a horse with some strong juvenile hurdling form who represents a trainer in fine form.
3.40 Lingfield Countess Lovelace 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 16/1 (Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, guaranteed, 14/1 generally guaranteed)
Countess Lovelace has one piece of form over ten furlongs here which entitles her to plenty of respect in this 0-65. The form of her maiden second over ten furlongs has worked out extremely well. the winner Ray Ward followed up next time out and is now rated OR95, the third Edwyn Ralph also won next time out and bagged another all weather handicap at Southwell, now rated OR76 on the surface. They pulled well clear with a Gosden horse who is unraced since, and the visual impression of that contest suggested the selection would have no problem with 12 furlongs. Her sire Byron's progeny are profitable to back on the all weather, with an a/e value of 1.12 suggesting they are underbet, so I would have no problem forgiving her her sole turf run at Windsor.
More interesting again is the booking of Luke Morris, which suggests the ho9rse might be fit and ready to go after an absence. A quick check of the trainer's stats with horses absent for 100+ days throws up some very interesting figures. From 67 horses in the last ten years, nine have won after a similar absence, with a further four placed. The winners tend to be very much underbet, with an a/e ration of 1.64 suggesting the trainer's horses with this profile should be followed. At 14/1+ in a moderate contest, the selection makes plenty of appeal at the prices and should be backed each-way and win.
Profit & loss: day: -5.50 / month: -16.25 / year: +352.20
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