Most of these look on the downgrade, but Kindlelight Storm looks progressive and is probably better suited to Kempton than Wolverhampton, where he ran with credit but never quite faced the kickback last time out (didn't bend well either). The selection is a big horse, and Kempton's long home straight suits him well. I make this between the top two in the market, and I think he is too big at the current odds with the favourite trading under 2/1 in most places.
7.30 Kempton Al Raqeeb 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 16/1 (Generally guaranteed)
Al Raqeeb travels really well in his races, and was an eyecatcher at Wolverhampton last time out when he patently failed to see out the extended mile trip having travelled all over some decent polytrack horses. He has previously gone close over a mile at Lingfield and he looks a cert to appreciate the step back to seven furlongs this evening. His trainer is making a decent name for himself and the booking of Luke Morris is a major positive, and his draw in stall ten means he should be able to tuck in and get some cover before they hit the bend (there's a decent run before the bend over the seven furlongs here).
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Afternoon bets:
One for Southwell this afternoon, evening bets for Kempton will follow before 4.00pm.
2.30 Southwell Ichimoku 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 20/1 (Betfred, guaranteed, 18/1 Bet 365, Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed)
The best bets usually come from knowing something that is not factored into the pricing of the horse, and we have a classic example of that here which explains the decent sized stake. Ichimoku was well backed on his reappearance over this course and distance the other day, and I kept a close eye on him as a result. Straight away I noticed (confirmed by numerous views of the replay) that Jacob Butterfield took a pull on the gelding as he left the gates, leaving him sitting in behind the rest of the horses and facing a huge amount of kickback, which he completely resented. I think that run is worth completely striking off, and I would expect much better today with Joe Fanning booked to ride. The selection's previous course and distance run came on only his second career start, where he still looked a bit weak but travelled well to the fore, before the more mature horses outfinished him. That race worked out very well for the grade, and the selection looks unexposed on this surface based on his previous form here. His Newcastle win in May suggests he is well handicapped enough to win this, and with his breeding offering further encouragement (closely related to Southwell winner Headache) he looks way overpriced at 18/1+ in this company.
Profit & loss: day: -15.00 / month: +6.25 / year: +374.70
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