Thursday 26th December 2013

2.00 Kempton Green Flag 5pts win @ 9/2 (Paddy Power, guaranteed, 4/1 generally guaranteed)

Kempton has taken 70mm of rain in the last few days and I can't imagine the going will be anything but heavy come race time on Boxing Day. I make this a match between the two market leaders, and with Green Flag looking a thorough stayer who handles heavy ground well, he gets the nod. I can't believe the price discrepancy is as great as it is. The selection is by Milan, whose progeny's actual versus expected ratio on soft and heavy ground increases by +0.20, which is very respectable. I'm not sure Just A Par will handle the conditions as well looking at his action, and although the Nicholls horse has more gears, Lucinda Russell's gelding stays very strongly and jumps superbly. I find it really interesting she sends him down, I think he is the best horse in her yard and he is taken to cause a minor shock in the contest won by Dynaste last year. 4/1+ is too big and I expect the price to shorten as the race draws nearer.

December 26th 3:10 Kempton William Hill King George VI Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 3m

Selection: Dynaste 6pts win @ 7/2 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 10/3 generally guaranteed)

With Dynaste proven over course and distance, and proven on heavy ground, and a career best performance on ratings behind him on his seasonal reappearance, he looks a very strong bet to put the Pipe team back in the big time on Boxing Day. In fact, I think there is evidence enough in the markets to suggest he might go off favourite, meaning it is a good idea to support him at guaranteed odds now rather than on the day itself. The selection was impressive when winning the Feltham Novices Chase on this card twelve months ago, and has progressed well since despite underperforming under entirely different conditions at Cheltenham in March. He should be a lot fitter today than he was in the Betfair Chase, and he probably travelled best of all there before tiring in the closing stages. Deeper ground will suit him better than Cue Card, and I think the betting public will cotton on to that on the day and shorten up his price. I wasn't impressed with Al Ferof's jumping at Ascot, and I'm not keen on supporting a horse at his price after such a long absence, with only a jog around in a two runner race to prep him. Nor do I see any reason why Silviniaco Conti will reverse form with the selection. Take Dynaste to improve again and land this Grade 1, on the way to possible further success at one of the Spring festivals.

Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: -27.25 / year: +341.20