4.50 Kempton Royal Bajan 5pts win @ 4/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 7/2 generally guaranteed)
Royal Bajan looks to be at the top of his game at the moment and, as a horse who does not need to lead, he makes plenty of appeal here under the excellent Tom Queally despite a wide draw. He is a dual course and distance winner, and his last effort at Southwell from a wide draw represented a career best.There is enough pace in this race to suggest that something in mid pack or held up in rear can land the spoils, and not many of these rivals appear to be in good enough form to cope with the selection. I make him an 11/4 shot on my tissue so anything around 7/2+ should be taken.
6.50 Kempton Sea Spear 4pts win @ 10/1 / 9/1 (Generally guaranteed)
David Barron can get horses ready first time up, including juveniles, and I find it really interesting he sends the selection down to Kempton this evening to contest what looks a winnable race. Those who have form in the book don't set an exacting standard, and clients will remember that we've had success with Barron trained debutants already this season, when we backed Red Stargazer at 16/1 up at Ayr. It is a bit of a journey for a juvenile at this time of the season and I think Barron targets these Maiden Auction events too. Sea Spear is related to a number of good all weather horses, and with his profile not looking like that of a handicap project, a chance is taken on him making a winning debut at a decent price.
___________________________________________________
Afternoon bets:
12.30 Lingfield King's Request 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 20/1 (Generally guaranteed)
Stamina has to be taken on trust here, but King's Request is by New Approach out of a half sister to a Kentucky Derby runner up, so there is every chance on pedigree and visual evidence that two miles will be to the selections liking. He was noted putting in an improved performance at Kempton on his penultimate run, but failed to back that up last time out at this track. That was in a much better contest than todays, however, and he didn't get the best of rides - he seen far too much daylight and the way the race developed didn't suit him at all. Liam Jones takes the ride again today and I'm sure he'll get plenty more cover in mid pack. I think the trip could be the making of him, and trainer Laura Mongan has a history of getting all weather staying winners with switchers from other yards. The selection gets a useful three year old allowance off all but one of his rivals, and I think 20/1+ is an underestimation of his chances.
Profit & loss: day: -13.00 / month: +21.25 / year: +389.70
No comments:
Post a Comment