Tuesday 18th February 2014

An incredible run of seconditis continued with Honey Of A Kitten running second at 14/1 yesterday. We played win only at the guaranteed 8/1, obviously we have no way of knowing SP's for definite but it was a little galling all the same. That's added to a 15/2 second on Friday, a 20/1 shot who traded 1.43 and was set for second before unseating at the last on Saturday, and our second each-way bet on Saturday which was done for third place in a photo. What a week.

Expect the Cheltenham e-mail before 4.30pm.

3.00 Southwell Crooked Arrow 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, Ladbrokes, Betfair Sportsbook, guaranteed)

An interesting maiden. Turnbuckle matches the profile of the first time out Johnston winner from last week, but does not bear the same U.S.A. suffix which means the horse is not dirt bred and is at a disadvantage as a first timer on fibresand. Most of these are, but the selection is odds on and looks one to play against at the prices. Yeah Baby and Puzzle Time have similar question to answer with regard to the surface - Yeah Baby didn't look a natural here despite her finishing position last time out. Crooked Arrow is the interesting one at a big price for me. He represents a stable whose horses go very well here, and he was well supported at Wetherby last time out over hurdles. I don't think he acts on soft ground, though, and although he travelled well he never landed a blow. Connections presumably feel they've something to go to war with and I've had my eye on the horse for a while having noticed a couple of eye catching down the field runs in the jumping code. There is some promise on breeding and run style - the progeny of Galileo have a 16% strike rate here, and the selection has a few relatives who have run well on Deauville's fibresand, including one who managed an RPR of 89. Crooked Arrow travels well through his races, and I think this surface might see him in a better light than heavy turf over jumps. The assistance of a good 5lb claimer means he has a favourable racing weight with respect to some of the fancied runners who are younger than him, and I think he is well worth each-way support at a big price.

3.35 Southwell

Soul Instinct 3pts win @ 10/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Fuel Injection 3pts win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed) - WON @ 16/1

Expect has never run on fibresand and I'm happy to take her on here, especially being a relatively light framed filly giving a lot of weight away to some of her opponents. Soul Instinct represents Kevin Ryan. The selection has a running style suited to this course and distance (one paced grinder) and he made a nice course debut on his penultimate start when running second to Black Geronimo. His Lingfield run last time is probably best excused, and he looks a big price here for a horse we know will act on the surface representing top connections.

Fuel Injection looks good value to reverse last time out placings with Argent Touch. He ran that rival close for second having shown good speed and an ability to handle the fibresand well on his course debut. He was returning from a break that day and can be expected to strip fitter here. This is a horse who was fancied for the Brocklesby at one point, and they've tried to land a gamble with him on at least one occasion since. His recent reappearance was his best run yet in my view (although he has already won a race) and he could be the type to improve as this season goes on. We'll split our stakes on the pair.

Profit & loss: day: +40.00 / month: +18.90 / year: +5.70

Monday 17th February 2014

One selection for this afternoon.

4.15 Wolverhampton Honey Of A Kitten 5pts win @ 17/2 (William Hill, guaranteed, 8/1 generally guaranteed)

This lot look average, with Kindlelight Storm lacking consistency, Attain too short for a horse who finds one too good more often than not, and Arabian Heights looking under priced base on what he has achieved this year. Honey Of A Kitten comes with risks attached because he didn't run his race last month in a three runner race at this track, but his yard were probably out of form then and he is a horse who has followed up a very poor run with a win in the past. Outside of I Confess, who is having his third run back after a long absence and might need one more run to put him straight, the selection looks the classiest horse in the race and he is a professional winner having won thirteen races. He is very well handicapped off OR65, and I expect a better performance from him today after a nice short break. His last win came after a similar "pause that refreshes", and at 8/1+ he is decent value to resume the winning thread.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -21.10 / year: -34.30

Saturday 15th February 2014

Yet another second place finish yesterday to add to what must be a dozen since the turn of the year at this stage. I know the winner Tokyo Brown well, and I can't quite believe he was good enough to beat Blazing Desert - much of the credit has to go to Luke Morris, who is an absolute beast of a pilot on the all weather this winter - we never looked like passing him until after the line.

Two races of interest today.

2.55 Haydock 

Nuts N Bolts 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Red Rocco 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Generally guaranteed)

This will obviously be an absolute marathon, and a slugfest in the conditions. Nuts N Bolts has been laid out for this contest, and represents the same yard who won it two years in succession with Silver By Nature not so long ago. The selection won over course and distance on his seasonal debut, marking himself down as a staying chaser of some potential. He was pulled up at Wetherby over Christmas, and indeed Lucinda Russell's horses have been out of form just lately, but those factors are incorporated into the price and the 14/1 looks too big for a second course and distance victory.

Red Rocco finished second behind Nuts N Bolts in November and looks well handicapped opposing off 9lb better terms. The caveat is that he has been pulled up twice since, but his stabe weren't in great form either up until Splash Of Ginge won the Betfair hurdle for them last weekend. The horse looks a bit of a thinker and a first time visor is applied in order to sharpen his ideas up. If it enables him to focus and perhaps travel a bit better, he definitely has the staying power to repel all raiders off bottom weight of 10-4.

4.30 Lingfield Run It Twice 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 11/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)

Dave Evans' string are coming back into form, and his Run It Twice looks nicely handicapped off 4lb higher than his course and distance win a couple of months back. He ran a really nice race last time out, held up off a slow pace set by Go Far and The Happy Hammer over seven furlongs, doing all his best work at the finish. He looked close to the top of his game there, and the return of Martin Harley in the saddle is significant today - Harley won on the horse in December and knows how to ride him. For a horse who looks progressive and has won five of his 23 all weather starts, double figure prices are too big and I think we have Club House to beat.

Profit & loss: day: -12.00 / month: -16.10 / year: -29.30

Friday 14th February 2014

Just one for this evening.

5.35 Wolverhampton Blazing Desert 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 15/2 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 7/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

Blazing Desert was backed early this morning, and as I have alluded to, I've been waiting for the markets to mature and the selection to drift out a little. He has now done so from 6/1 to 15/2 in a place and 7/1 generally, which I think is fair because I make him an 11/2 shot. He may well drift out on course too. The selection has some really good course form to his name, and shaped very well behind Fire In Babylon, who followed up, last time out when he may still have needed the run. He has been dropped 1lb for that effort and a mark of OR57 looks fair given that he has won off OR69 and OR64 here in the past. He is tens years of age now, but his three efforts this winter suggest he retains his ability and he looks well handicapped at this point. Adam Beschizza has been riding Wolverhampton well this winter and I'm happy to see him booked for the ride. We'll play each-way and win.

Profit & loss: day: +0.00 / month: -4.10 / year: -17.30

Thursday 13th February 2014

Two selections for this evening.

5.40 Kempton Al Raqeeb 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Generally guaranteed)

The thing that strikes me about Kempton's evening card first is the fact that Gary Harrison sends a three strong team to the track, having had his first runner of the year at Kempton yesterday. that horse ran well enough over a trip too short, for an inexperienced claimer who rides Not Rigg for the stable this evening. However, Harrison has taken the trouble to book Tom Queally for his other two representatives and we'll be supporting both, as both look overpriced.

Al Raqeeb was promising for Marco Botti, and has run a couple of good races in defeat since transferring to his current trainer. The form of his Lingfield third in November looks strong in the contest of this race, and he has been dropped to a mark of OR71 since having failed to progress from that contest. A first time tongue tie is applied today, and I find that interesting because the horse has failed to really see out any of his recent races strongly. I'd suggest it is likely the horse has had work done on his breathing during his near two month absence, and the booking of Queally would suggest he isn't out for a gallop. There isn't much pace in this race, and with Al Raqeeb having front run in the past, I would suggest he might take a prominent sit here and try to quicken from the front. He is drawn well to do so in stall four, and although he faces a few horses at the top of their game, there are reasons to believe an improved performance can be expected this evening and he looks overpriced at his current odds.

7.10 Kempton Hazzaat 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 18/1 (Bet Victor, Coral, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed)

Also from stall four, representing Harrison and Queally. Hazzaat has one piece of form on his penultimate run which gives him the winning of this contest. He ran Lacey to a short head on his penultimate run at Lingfield, his first really solid piece of form for the stable, and that was franked by the winner who has progressed since (won two runs later). He did well to get so close that day, having been keen enough under his apprentice jockey and running into trouble around the home turn, having to be switched wide to make his challenge. That race came after a break, and given that he is a buzzy sort of horse, he might well be best fresh. He comes into this contest off the back of a two month break and looks very well handicapped based on the Lingfield run. This looks to be a fairly run of the mill 0-60, and the fact that bookmakers go 6/1 the field tells its own story. If the selection gets a good pace to run at, and if Queally can get him settled early on, I'd expect him to go close, and he is too big at 16/1+.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: -4.10 / year: -17.30

Wednesday 12th February

Just one race of interest for Wednesday.

3.50 Musselburgh

Trust Thomas 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Sir Pitt 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

I've had a decent stake on this race, because it's one I feel I've a good handle on and some of the prices look quite a bit out from what I made them on my tissue. There is quite a bit of pace on here, with Figaro, Pas Trop Tard, Town Mouse and potentially one or two others likely to go forward. With that in mind, this might fall to something that can travel well off a strong pace and come with a late challenge to win. The likeliest candidates to my mind are Forced Family Fun, Trust Thomas and Sir Pitt. Forced Family Fun is the favourite, and he may just have a bit in hand of these taking into account he gets a 10lb allowance, but I'm not sure John Quinn's jumpers are running to the top of their form and at the prices I'm happy to take him on.

Trust Thomas represents a small stable going well of late, and looks progressive. He seems to be getting the hang of hurdling, and he travelled well at Wetherby last time out, where the race didn't really go his way. He gave the winner a good head start off a relatively slow pace, was hampered when challenging having to be switched, and then intimidated by the winner on the run in. He appeals as the type of horse who might improve for professional handling, and the booking of Wilson Renwick, who rides this track well, in place of a claimer looks a positive.

At a bigger price a chance is taken on Sir Pitt. He makes his debut for a new trainer today, but the form of his penultimate run at Ffos Llas looks very strong in the context of this race. He finished a close fourth that day, and of the other four around him, two have gone a close second since, the other two winning. He travelled best of all there and probably wants better than the heavy, bog-like ground he ran on that day. He probably just bounced last time out but he still ran well under front running tactics he may not have enjoyed. He has been very leniently treated here, having been dropped 10lb since Ffos Llas and a capable conditional takes a further 5lb off. He is far too big at 25/1, it's a bit of a pity most bookmakers have him at 16's although he is still worth backing at that price. We'll have an additional portion of the bet at Betfair SP.

Profit & loss: day: -7.00 / month: +5.90 / year: -7.30

Tuesday 11th February 2014

Two selections for Tuesday.

1.30 Southwell Novalist 2pts each-way @ 14/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 12/1 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Novalist is moderate, but so are all his rivals and he is both well handicapped and proven to act on this surface. The selection was unfit on his seasonal all weather debut in early January, but followed up with a better effort a couple of weeks later. His run at Wolverhampton five days ago offered more promise still - he ran all the way to the line, doing his best work at the finish, and I would suggest he should be cherry ripe for today's race. He races off a mark of OR45 which he can definitely win off, and his capable claimer takes off 3lb and knows him well at this stage. Most of these will struggle to win a race of any kind this winter but Novalist is game and displays the ability to keep going at the same pace, grinding it out in a similar fashion to most horses to take well to this surface.

3.05 Southwell Hannah's Turn 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 6/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Hannah's Turn is a bit of a beast on this surface and she looks far too big in relation to Frontier Fighter today. Frontier Fighter is very good on this surface, but a mark of OR95 looks very high to me and I think he'll do well to overcome it. Hannah's Turn is rated 10lb inferior but has run above that level on numerous occasions this winter. Seven furlongs is a question mark for her, but I find it interesting Luke Morris takes the ride from Shelley Birkett who, while very capable, isn't in the class of Morris. Luke will know just how to ride this filly to maximise her chances of winning. As I pointed out the other day, proven fibresand form rises to the top time and time again on this surface and with the other four runners having none between them, I'm happy to play each-way to protect most of my stake if the selection finishes second.

Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: +12.90 / year: -0.30

Monday 10th February 2014

Imaginary World won well yesterday and looks a progressive mare with more races in her.

Just one selection for Monday.

5.30 Wolverhampton Piccolo Express 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 22/1 Totesport, Betfred, guaranteed)

Piccolo Express won this race two years ago, and he is back down to a mark 2lb lower than that which he won off that day. He is a triple course and distance winner, and I'm surprised by his price this morning. He hasn't shown much lately, but he has been off for 59 days  and when he last ran, Brian Baugh's stable were in pretty poor form. They had a pretty dire year all told, but were 0/21 from October to December (0/19 on the all weather). His horses seem to have turned the corner lately, though, and they sent out the nine year old John Potts to run a fine race after six months off towards the end of January; that horse followed up with an easy victory the other night. Their sprinter Consistant picked up a race a couple of weeks ago, and the likes of Master Of Disguise and Pearl Nation have performed well in defeat. The interesting thing is that Baugh doesn't tend to send his handicappers to the track unfit. He has a decent record of producing horses after an absence, although this has gone under the radar somewhat and might be skewed somewhat by the stable's poor form over the past year. Old habits die hard, though, and I would suggest Baugh has had this race in mind for Piccolo Express for a while, and is unlikely to have him half cooked. Tom Eaves takes the ride, and I think the price is far too big. 

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +23.90 / year: +10.70

Sunday 9th February 2014

One selection for Sunday.

2.35 Southwell Imaginary World 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 11/2 (Bet victor, Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 5/1 generally guaranteed) - WON

Imaginary World might just have needed her recent Wolverhampton run, and while she didn't see the race out strongly, she may have needed her first start since mid December. She holds the second favourite Emperatriz at the weights based on a piece of form from last October (when we advised her) and she is taken to get the better of that rival again today. I would make her closely matched with the favourite based on my reading of Southwell speed figures, and on that basis I think is makes sense to back her each-way with five lining up. Amethyst Dawn is a potential dark horse for Alan McCabe, and it would be foolish to write off Michael Appleby's representative, but proven course form rises to the top time and again at this track, and with the selection likely to strip fitter than at Wolverhampton, she is selected to gain a second course victory.

Profit & loss: day: +22.50 / month: +28.90 / year: +15.70

Saturday 8th February 2014

Excellent racing today, but stamina will be at a premium as well as the ability to handle heavy ground. A busy one for us.

1.50 Newbury Kilmurvy 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 8/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Looks an out and out stayer, and is consistent with it. Deserves to get his head in front and the step up to three miles plus this afternoon looks like it could be the deciding factor in getting another win under his belt. The ground here will be bottomless, and fitness and the ability to stay vital. The stable's horses are in really good form right now, and jockey Nick Scholfield also at the top of his game with two winners at Kempton yesterday, one for this trainer. I can't have Upswing coming here off a fall, and I'm happy to take on the Lavelle horse: hers seem to be under a cloud to me and a couple of them didn't get home yesterday. All in all, I think the selection represents excellent value at 8/1.

3.15 Warwick Majala 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes, 13/2 generally guaranteed)

It might not seem like the best of days for stepping a horse up in trip, but Majala is probably the class act in this field and we know he handles the ground really well. I think class rises to the top even more so in these conditions, and there is statistical evidence to suggest higher weighted horses are performing better in heavy ground handicaps in recent seasons, going against commonly held wisdom that suggests a low weight is beneficial. The selection has a course win to his name and the stable had a winner the other day. Denis O'Regan looks a really strong jockey booking and, given that I'm keen to take on the top two here, I'm happy to play him each-way even with seven runners - I think a couple of the outsiders here won't run their races on the ground.

3.35 Newbury

Cheltenian 3pts win @ 9/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Far West 3pts win @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Cheltenian is by a sire, Astarabad, whose progeny go really well in testing conditions and his knee action would suggest this ground will see him perform at his best. He is a bit of a chancy selection given the fact that he was out injured for so long, but he is a classy horse and it is not often you get to back one so potentially well handicapped at a price like 9/1. On second inspection (after I had initially dissed his chances) his comeback run wasn't bad at all, and if he can get over his lack of experience here I think he has every chance off his favourable weight.

Far West has excellent soft ground form behind Melodic Rendezvous, and it looks the strongest on offer in this race. The form has been franked and the selection has an excuse for his next time out run, when he was reported to have been suffering from stomach ulcers. Harry Derham has shown in the past when winning the Greatwood for Nicholls on Brampour that the big occasion doesn't phase him, and I think double figures are too big.

Profit & loss: day: -16.00 / month: +6.40 / year: -6.80

Friday 7th February 2014

One early afternoon bet, an additional selection may follow before 2.30pm.

1.30 Kempton Pilgreen 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 11/1 (Ladbrokes,William Hill, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)

Baltimore Rock might be too well handicapped for his rivals here, but he didn't look totally convincing at Wincanton last time out, making fairly heavy weather of things and displaying just slight hints of attitude. He may not be an entirely straightforward and therefore doesn't appeal at odds on under an apprentice pilot. Santo Thomas has already had better chances than this, while Loyaute doesn't strike me as a regular winner and her stable have been quiet. Robert Walford's stable, however, have been in good order and it is interesting they've booked Harry Derham to ride the long absent Pilgreen. He has decent looking form in the book and although he has been absent over 1,000 days, his trainer has managed to get his horses fit enough to win or run their race first time up this jumps season, and the chance is taken that he is ready to go today. He will love the ground, having won on soft and displaying an exaggerated action in the process, and at a double figure price he looks the value in this contest.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +22.40 / year: +9.20

Thursday 6th February 2014

One for this evening.

5.00 Wolverhampton Polar Forest 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

Represents a stable who have been quiet just lately but have a bundle of runners entered up in the coming days indicating their horses are ready to go and in good health. The selection has run at this course on his last three starts, and on his best form is good enough to win this poor looking contest. He received a rather strange looking ride last time out in a better race than this, but a return to anything like his previous course and distance form would see him run into a place here. 12/1 is too big and he looks good each-way value.

Profit & loss: day: +1.80 / month: +27.40 / year: +14.20

Wednesday 5th February 2014

One selection for this evening.

7.30 Kempton Mary Le Bow 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 11/2 (Generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

An interesting contest for three year olds in which three horses who opposed last time out make up the front three in the market. I'm not really keen on the profiles of anything outside of the front three, and as a result, Mary Le Bow is selected after analysis of her recent fourth. The selection is a small enough horse, but she seems hearty and tough and has improved with each of her four career starts. She took a while to get going at Lingfield, and it is also noticeable that she has a bit of a look around when she sees daylight and hangs ever so slightly, more of a loss of concentration than anything else. It is interesting that the excellent Luke Morris, who rode her that day, retains the ride and you would imagine he has suggested trying her in cheekpieces. I think they will sharpen her up nicely and of the three who come from that race, she appeals to me as the most likely to appreciate the two furlong step up in trip. The price discrepancy between them looks a little off in my view, with the last time out winner best priced 9/4, Bountiful Sin at 4/1 in a place, and Mary Le Bow 11/2. It makes sense to have a fairly aggressive each-way bet, with most of our stake returned provided she finishes in the three. I think Morris will ride her a little more prominently. I expect the last 100yds to be a bit of a dogfight, with the selection hopefully just holding on from any closers.

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Afternoon bet:

One selection for this afternoon. An evening bet may follow, details before 4.30pm either way.

1.30 Lingfield Bennelong 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 10/1 (Coral, guaranteed, 9/1 generally guaranteed)

Moderate stuff here at best, and although the favourite should win on figures, he has been put up 2lb for not winning and I'm loathe to take 6/4 about a horse in a 0-60. The dead eight line up here, and it looks a race with a good each-way opportunity. Stag Hill and elegant Ophelia both come from the Low Key contest at Kempton, and although that form is fair in the contest of this race, one of them is 1/20 on the surface, and the other 0/10. Both were well beaten and don't look like troubling the judge here. A chance is taken, therefore, on the old rogue Bennelong. He is a strong travelling horse who does not want to be in front too soon, but he got an appalling ride from Amir Quinn last time out at Kempton in a much better race than this. He was sent to the front around two and a half furlongs from home, still travelling strongly and with only The Ginger Berry, who is improving at a rate of knots and very well handicapped, for company. Having tried to match strides with the winner, he fell in a hole late on, but it is no wonder because I think that horse could be rated OR75+ by the end of the season. It is interesting, then, that Shane Kelly takes over in the plate for the first time today. Kelly has impressed greatly on similar types over the course of the last two winters, holding up these bridle merchants and delivering them late. These horses are often honest enough, but problematic physically and hence find less than expected off the bridle. Four of Bennelong's five wins have come in fields of 7-9 runners, so you'd think a hold up ride off a slow pace will probably suit him better than most here. Expect Kelly to give him the right ride, and even though he may not win, I think he'll go close and at least nab some place money.

Profit & loss: day: -6.80 / month: +25.60 / year: +12.40

Tuesday 4th February 2014

Two selections and an each-way double for today.

1pt each-way double on today's selections, 11/1 and 10/3 (Generally guaranteed)

2.00 Lingfield Hurricane Harry 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Bet victor, guaranteed, 11/1 Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Independents, guaranteed)

There's a bit of thinking outside the box going on here, but I can't resist backing Hurricane Harry at a double figure price here. He seems to have attracted some support this morning, and I'm a big fan of the trainer who is quite shrewd. The selection showed nothing on his debut in a visor, but has been gelded since, the headgear is removed and a change of surface could see him improve drastically today. He has a really nice pedigree, is bred to go on this surface, and could be a bit better than most of these rivals. I don't think either of the front three in the market set an exacting standard, and if the selection is ready after his break, he might make them all go here.

4.40 Southwell Argent Touch 3pts each-way @ 7/2 (Coral, guaranteed, 10/3 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

This might seem rather defensively staked, but I think Argent Touch is a much better each-way bet than win only given his running style and the shape of this race. The dead eight line up, and a few of them won't run their race on this surface - some have long absences to overcome too. Argent Touch is a big, strapping three year old who is improving all the time but needs to learn to race more economically. The booking of Dale Swift over Adam McLean is a positive in that regard, I expect him to ride the horse with more restraint than has been the case recently and continue to try and teach him to settle. I think he is better than a mark of OR60, and if something can give him a lead into this race, he should go close. I can't see what keeps him out of the three.

Profit & loss: day: -7.90 / month: +32.20 / year: +19.60

Monday 3rd February 2014

One selection for Monday.

5.00 Kempton Graylyn Ruby 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 10/1 (Generally guaranteed)

He may be nine years old, but Graylyn Ruby hasn't been overraced in his time and he showed plenty of spark last time out behind MidnightSequel, who is decent on her day, despite making his challenge up the inside of Kempton's home straight which is not really where you ideally want to be the way the track is riding. The selection has come back from an absence of nearly three years, and after three relatively poor runs seemed to rediscover some form on that run. He actually has a decent record on this surface for this kind of grade, and has won twice at Kempton. His handicap mark has fallen quite a way, and he should be able to get competitive off OR49 looking at his previous form. The booking of Luke Morris looks really interesting here, and it should be noted that all the selection's four wins have come in fields of twelve or more. Conditions look ideal today, and in a race where the principals have question marks against them, he makes plenty of appeal at a double figure price.

Profit & loss: day: +45.00 / month: +40.00 / year: +27.50

Saturday 1st February 2014

Just one selection today on a very difficult day to find value.

2.45 Wetherby Kilbree Chief 5pts win @ 5/1 (Generally guaranteed)

This doesn't look a very high quality race, and with a piece of winning form to his name on soft ground at Hexmah, a chance is taken on Kilbree chief's ability to handle the ground here at a decent price. His form last autumn behind Three Kingdoms has been franked in no uncertain terms by the winner, and his Hexham win marked him down as a Novice Hurdler on the up. He was probably overfaced next time out, but ran well and displayed his usual good jumping ability throughout the contest. He has been given a short break, but his trainer suggested in a recent stable tour that he remains well handicapped and stays no problem. This looks a good piece of placement, and it is worth noting that Russell has sent more horses to Wetherby this season than before, with a 4/28 strike rate which improves her previous rate. She has a decent standard of horse in her yard and although the selection will be a chaser in time, he looks well up to this class and may have been let in lightly off OR120.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -5.00 / year: -13.50

Friday 31st January 2014

One selection for tonight.

7.30 Wolverhampton Witchy Woman 6pts win @ 7/2 (Generally)

I can't see anything remotely progressive amongst the outsiders in this contest, and I make this between the top two in the betting. That said, I think the favourite Keep to The Beat is really short at 11/10 here. She was flattered to get as close as she did to Spreadable the last day, and that rival ultimately won very easily. The rest in behind were of a very low standard, and even Trinity Lorraine, who finished third, only stayed on one pace late under maximum pressure. Witchy Woman sticks out a mile for me here and looks a point and a half too big here at 7/2 (I'd make her 2/1). She ran really well after a break at Southwell, and although that's a different surface, there is no reason she shouldn't act around here. She hit the front a furlong too soon, and probably just tired close home and may come on for that run. Danny Tudhope retains the ride, he will know the filly better today and I think she'll take the beating. We'll have a decent sized stake.

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Afternoon bets:

One selection for this afternoon, a possible evening bet will follow - details either way before 4.30pm.

2.00 Lingfield Evacusafe Lady 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Bet Victor, guaranteed, 14/1 generally guaranteed)

There are a couple of "sexy" horses in here, with Basil Berry and Global Explorer top of the list as improving sprinters. However, both have questions to answer at this trip and they look short enough in light of that. Evacusafe Lady is another who is trying this trip for the first time in quite a while, and she is also a maiden of 14 starts, but there are reasons to believe she might have things her own way today. She has come up trumps with the draw in stall 1, and you would imagine connections will try to make all. She has a piece of form from Newmarket last autumn, when she ran loose on the lead and was only caught close home by Fray is a well contested maiden that entitles her to respect in this company. She ran well on the lead over a mile here on her last start before stamina became an issue, and although the step back two furlongs in trip is extreme, she has enough early toe to get the lead. The booking of a 3lb claimer who has executed similar tactics in the past is really interesting, and this doesn't look as strong a contest as the class five she contested last time. The stable haven't been running as many horses this winter as last, but they did have a winner the other day which bodes well. Anything around 14/1+ looks too big.

Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: -8.50 / year: -8.50

Thursday 30th January 2014

One selections for this afternoon, a possible evening bet to follow; details either way before 4.30pm.

4.00 Southwell Schottische 2pts each-way @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP - E/W 2nd @ 20/1

Plenty of course regulars in here, but nothing sticks out as particularly well handicapped and it looks to me like a race that could throw up a surprise. Schottische is the one I find interesting, for a yard whose horses go really well at this track. The selection has won twice on polytrack, and a look at her fibresand form at first glance would suggest we shouldn't expect too much this afternoon. However, she travelled really well on her second start here in a decent class 5 contest. She faded quickly that day, but the structure of her performance was not typical of a horse not acting on the surface. She travelled too well in the early stages to suggest so, and I think she may have had a minor physical issue (perhaps in season?) or maybe she was taking the mick out of her jockey a little bit. Her last run a few days ago came at Lingfield, and she didn't seem to act well around the bend. She did, however, run on strongly late and I wondered again was she giving less than she could for her apprentice pilot. It is interesting then, than Rosie Jessop makes way for the excellent Joe Fanning today. Jessop is an excellent pilot, but Fanning will make this filly's mind up for her in no uncertain terms if she decides to mess about. If she responds to his urgings and puts it all in, I think she is very well handicapped off OR56 based on her last polytrack win. I think she does act well on the surface, and at 14/1+ with the dead eight running, she makes good each-way appeal.

Profit & loss: day: +5.00 / month: +2.50 / year: -+2.50

Tuesday 28th January 2014

Two selections for Tuesday.

1.40 Taunton Redlynch Rock 2pts win AND 1pt place @ Betfair SP (50/1 guaranteed available with Paddy Power and independents)

Redlynch Rock has been written off as a no hoper here, but there are a few reasons to believe he might outrun massive odds this afternoon. His trainer Bob Buckler's horses have been running a bit better this winter, the yard having suffered the effects of a virus in 2012 and early 2013. Indeed this trainer / jockey combo landed the conditional jockeys handicap hurdle at this track in December with The Happy Warrior. It is interesting that horse is not entered here; he looks like he would benefit from a step up in trip and it is curious he goes to Chepstow in a few days instead. The selection has little in the way of form, but he didn't look a natural over fences and was a bit keen, so the return to hurdling might well suit and the application of a first time tongue tie suggests the team may have worked on breathing issues. The most interesting variable here is the ground. Redlynch Rock has a very rounded knee action, and he is by a sire Brian Boru whose progeny are beginning to acquire a reputation as mud lovers. He has had little chance on this type of surface before but might well improve for it. This is a speculative selection at best, and isn't one for big stakes at all, but in this kind of company the market has overpriced him and I'm happy to take a chance that the Betfair SP is kind to us (currently trades at 100 on the machine). We'll have a small win and place interest.

3.20 Southwell Waveguide 5pts win @ 3/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 11/4 generally guaranteed)

Thatchmaster is the favourite here, but he looks short enough at 4/6 for a horse who has never shown much willingness in a finish, and he is taken on with Waveguide, who is more consistent and represents a trainer in fine form, who scalped another odds on shot from this stable at Lingfield a few days ago. The selection is by Dubawi, whose progeny have a fine record on this surface including first time up, and although she is 0-11 lifetime she appears to be quite game and has twice shown promise on artificial surfaces. She gets 5lb from the favourite, and has the services of a fair 7lb claimer which is interesting - this yard are shrewd with the use of apprentice riders and place them well more often than not. If the selection can sit on the shoulders of the favourite, I think she might be able to worry him out of it in the home straight unless the gelding operation has made a big impact on his temperament.

Profit & loss: day: -8.00 / month: -2.50 / year: -2.50

Sunday 26th January 2014

A cracking card at Leopardstown today, and we have one selection.

1.30 Leopardstown Mallowney 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 22/1 (Bet Victor, William Hill, guaranteed, 20/1 generally guaranteed)

A cracking renewal of the Irish Arkle. Defy Logic is the best horse in this race to my mind, but I think there has to be a chance he will bounce today after his win at Christmas. That might sound like an unusual statement to make, but I couldn't believe the fractions he set that day and it pretty much seemed to bottom Champagne Fever, who was forced into an error and eventually well beaten. It is the mark of Defy Logic's class that he held off Trifolium so easily, and the race time was very impressive - more than five seconds faster than standard on a day when every other race was slow on the clock. My instinct is always to take on horses after they've given a peak out performance, and I'm happy to do so with Defy Logic today.

I don't think Felix Yonger merits his rating. He hammered Trifolium on his penultimate start, but that rival was far too keen and tanked through part of the race, giving himself no chance of finishing effectively and setting the contest up for his rival. The form looks questionable and at the prices, he is taken on. I would suggest Mozoltov might prefer going right handed, and I'm not a huge Trifolium fan - he has a big, exaggerated action and occasionally makes a funny shape when he jumps a fence. He isn't for me in Grade 1 company.

Mallowney was a cracking each-way bet with the dead eight lining up, but with 1/4 odds paid on the seven, and Irish Thistle appearing to be a no hoper who is probably pot hunting for prize money, he still appeals. He has done little wrong in two chase starts and has had an ideal prep from what we have seen on the course. He was well held by Mozoltov on chase debut, but was making his seasonal and chase debut that day and wasn't far behind the winner jumping the last, before fitness probably became an issue. His win last time was impressive, he jumped well and beat a decent horse in Ned Buntline fairly handily. I think he needs to improve at least a stone to be winning today, but conditions will suit him well and he improved gradually over hurdles last season. I see no reason to believe this natural jumper has hit a ceiling of his ability yet, and I think he can outrun his odds for his connections, who should be commended for being brave enough to place him in this Grade 1.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +5.50 / year: +5.50

Saturday 25th January 2014

Probably the best day's National Hunt racing all season today. For my mind, Big Buck's should win the Cleeve but will probably be vulnerable atCheltenham, and I think Annie Power will saunter home at Doncaster.

Three interests for us.

12.40 Cheltenham Kentucky Hyden 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 8/1 (Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, Ladbrokes, Coral, guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

Interesting here that powerful connections are happy to take on Le Rocher again, and one look at the video of the Chepstow race tells you why. The selection was ridden too prominently by David Bass, and may have done well to finish second in the end. I expect Barry Geraghty to ride him with more restraint today, and I think he can get the better of his conqueror. I make this between the top three in the betting, because I thinkBallyglasheen will be better on good ground and Ronaldinho might not be the finished article yet. The favourite might be hard to beat, but at the prices 8/1 about the selection each-way looks a knocking bet.

12.55 Doncaster Valdez 5pts win @ 2/1 (Generally guaranteed) - WON

I half fancy Valdez as an Arkle horse, although the jury is out for now and he needs to step up to Graded company today first to be talked about in those terms. He is a brave jumper, and has loads of gears. His Newbury performance went right under the radar, he was absolutely superb that day and if the same horse shows up today, he will win. Fox Appeal might just be better going right handed, and Caid Du Berlais looks too short for what he has achieved. 2/1 on Valdez is far too big and here's hoping he drifts out further and hoses up.

3.15 Doncaster

The Druid's Nephew 3pts win @ 9/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, Ladbrokes)

Time For Rupert 3pts win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed)

A good renewal, but I'm keen to take on Unioniste at the prices. The Druid's Nephew is given the benefit of the doubt as the possessor of an outstanding piece of form last time out, when second to Le Bec,, with the third and fourth fighting out the Welsh National next time out. He hasn't found winning easy, but he is only a seven year old and seems to be improving based on that run. Doncaster should be find for him, as should the ground.

Time For Rupert is clearly on a National prep here, and you won't find a better handicapped horse running today given his previous form. The assessor has given him a real chance off a mark of OR143. A flat left handed track is fine for him, and as a horse who won an Aintree handicap hurdle (50/1 that day) a few years back you can see what connections are thinking. A good run here, and perhaps a penalty, would see him get into the National off a nice weight and I just think 14/1 is too big given his class, the opposition, and the fact that he only has to carry 11-2 in this company. Denis O'Regan rides this track really well, and I expect a much better performance than at Ascot, which would not have suited him.

Profit & loss: day: +5.00 / month: +10.50 / year: +10.50

Friday 24th January 2014

It hasn't been the most fluent of months, but we've held fire more often than not and a couple of decent winners and a smattering of place money has kept us in an ok position with a week left in January. There is some good quality racing over the weekend and we'll most likely have a busy one.

One selection for this afternoon, a possible evening bet will be added, details either way before 4.30pm (we'll have no interest in the first at Wolverhampton).

1.30 Lingfield Hot Stock 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 22/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 20/1 Stan James, Betpack.com, William Hill, guaranteed)

Spreadable could be miles ahead of the handicapper, but he hasn't raced at Lingfield yet, and he hasn't been beating much at Wolverhampton. He is taken on at the prices under a 12lb penalty. Hot Stock looks really interesting here. His Southwell form behind Razin' Hell, where he gave the winner 8lbs and first run, has been well and truly franked with that horse running well in a better race next time, and winning a poor event very handily yesterday. Hot Stock disappointed three days later, but was reported to have run flat and he did have a hard race against Razin' Hell. That run is forgiven, and he turns up today off 4lb higher having had a few weeks break. He was fresh for that first run, so clearly the holiday can be regarded as a positive rather than a negative. He is nicely bred, and is by a sire whose progeny are profitable to back blind on this surface, with an actual versus expected ratio of 1.05 according to my latest information. That and his Kempton run behind Meritocracy would suggest that he acts well on polytrack. Outside of the favourite, this doesn't look much of a race and the second and third in the market, Basil Berry and Ain't No Surprise, don't look as good as the selection in my view. Hot Stock is entered at the sales in February, but I wouldn't read too much into that as he has been before and was withdrawn. I'd say connections are very likely to be going for it today; stall four is an uncomplicated draw and at around 20/1+, he rates excellent value.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +5.50 / year: +5.50

Thursday 23rd January 2014

4.15 Meydan Banoffee 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 8/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 15/2 Bet 365, Paddy Power, Bruce Betting, Bet Byrne, guaranteed)

Windhoek and Zip Top will probably be tuned to the minute for their powerful stables, but both have something to prove on the surface and the latter with fitness, and I'm inclined to take the pair on each-way with Banoffee. The selection ran a couple of nice races on polytrack on her last two starts and has clearly been prepared with a Dubai campaign in mind. She looks quite well handicapped and favoured by the race conditions, and she has also come up trumps with a decent draw in stall three. she was very keen over twelve furlongs at Kempton in a race that has worked out really well, and she tanked until the two furlong pole when she began to weaken. I don't think she quite gets twelve furlongs, but she might just be very good over this intermediate distance. She is really interesting having won around a tight left handed track like Chester and her shrewd trainer seems to have placed her very well here. Kieren Fallon takes the ride and he might just try to make all.

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Afternoon Bets:

An early afternoon selection as follows.

An additional selection may follow before 2.00pm.

1.40 Southwell Prisca 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 8/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Stable form, a positive jockey booking, and a neat piece of placement would be enough to convince me that Prisca will be ready to go after an absence today and, in a race where many of those who oppose her will never win a race, she looks too big a price at the odds for a stable whose horses have a 20% strike rate at this track. A rating of OR68 might flatter her a little, but some of her two year old form is head and shoulders above what this lot have achieved and if he has trained on at all for her new stable, she should go close here. Her ability to act on the surface has to be taken on trust, but there is some encouragement on pedigree and her run style suggests she should cope fine (looks a forward going grinder). With the outsider here looking a complete no hoper, and many of these just not good enough, she rates a very good each-way bet against the favourite.

Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: +10.50 / year: +10.50

Wednesday 22nd January 2014

One selection for this evening.

4.25 Kempton Seamster 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 15/2 (Bet 365, guaranteed, 7/1 Coral guaranteed, 13/2 Ladbrokes, Independents, guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

The market here revolves around Indus Valley, who has apparently been backed in multiples as part of a huge Barney Curley coup. Some clients will remember we preempted 3/4 of Barney's 2010 gamble, landing a double from a trixie. There was a 1/3 shot in there beaten, and I'm happy to take on this 1/3 shot as a sprinter who is 1/26 for his career, and by a sire who has a poor 5% strike rate at this course. If you told me I could have backed Seamster at 15/2 this morning I'd have laughed in your face, the selection is relatively lightly raced for a seven year old, with 25 starts, 21 of those coming on the all weather. He has won three and been in the first three on a further five occasions from those starts, which is very solid for a horse at this level. He routinely comes to hand in the winter, and his three wins have all been between December and February at Southwell. He does act well here too, though, and was sent on far too soon last time out when clear a furlong out over seven furlongs only to fade in the closing stages. The step back in trip today looks a positive, and the horse has reacted to well to blinkers the last twice. Graham Lee takes the ride and the selection is simply too big a price not to back each-way.

Profit & loss: day: -0.20 / month: +21.50 / year: +21.50

Tuesday 21st January 2014

A really good card at Southwell today, and we have one selection.

3.15 Southwell Alben Star 5pts win @ 6/1 (William Hill, guaranteed, 11/2 Totesport, Betfred, Paddy Power, Independents, guaranteed)

There is an argument to be made for Even Stevens here, but this looks a slightly better race than his last win here and he has gone up 8lb for that win to a career high mark, and it is not guaranteed that his visor will work as well third time up. Saying that, it is difficult to see anything that raced against him last time turning the tables; he had everything else pretty much cooked by halfway and none of those who reoppose look up to his class on the surface. Unless something bounces back to form out of the blue (Equitania would be a possible to do so), that leaves Alben Star and Woolfall Sovereign as the two horses unexposed on the surface. The latter will probably need the run in my view, and he doesn't appeal to me at the prices. 

Alben Star is unproven on the surface, but I have a theory that a lack of fibresand experience (or indeed a U.S.A. suffix) is not as important over the straight five furlongs here as on the round course. Nonetheless, there is encouragement on breeding  with the selection being by Clodovil (15% progeny strike rate here) out of a Magic Ring mare. Magic Ring himself sired a few Southwell winners and is damsire to some very good fibresand horses such as Take Cover. Running style is all important over this trip, and I think the selection is tailor made for the course and distance. He seems to have little in the way of a turn of foot, but is the sort of grinder who can maintain his speed over this distance, and I think a straight track will help given that he has appeared to lose ground around turns on a couple of occasions this winter. His recent form  has been good, and the winner of the Wolverhampton race he finished third in last time has followed up since. Richard Fahey's stable are now in very good form, and I think the selection has plenty enough going for him to make him a bet at 11/2+.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +21.70 / year: +21.70

Monday 20th January 2014

One selection for Monday.

1.35 Southwell Blades Lad 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 8/1 (Generally guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

Blades Lad has some very solid course form, including a defeat of Royal Holiday, who is something of a Southwell stalwart, and off just 3lb higher today he deserves each-way support in this tricky looking contest. Short Shrift looks an improving filly but displayed an awkward head carriage when winning here last time and I'm not sure about the merit of the form. Afro won something of a tinpot race, and with Staff Sergeant a possible non stayer, and Yasir temperamental, the selection makes a lot of sense with the dead eight lining up. His recent runs on soft ground can be ignored, the stable had a winner the other day and the price is too big in a moderate looking handicap.

Profit & loss: day: +0.20 / month: +26.70 / year: +26.70

Thursday 16th January 2014

One selection for this evening.

6.00 Wolverhampton Belle Peinture 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed, 14/1 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP - E/W 2nd @20/1

An interesting market for this race, with the favourite Right Of Appeal having shown little in his three starts, and obviously unproven over the trip. His yard have won this race in the past, so you would imagine they know what they have here, but you have to ask yourself if there is a possibility that the horse just isn't very good, and if he deserves to be as short as 5/4 at all? Big Kenny looks a potential non stayer, so you're left with five others to chose from in finding some value here.

Miss Verdoyante probably isn't very good, the step up in trip is an obvious move but she doesn't look anything like a stable star and is too short despite her connections. Izbuska looked a wrong 'un in a handicap yesterday, although she may have resented the visor. Sarlat looks moderate, and Water For Life has shown ability, but doesn't seem keen on racing (hasn't responded to the whip, has looked keen and fizzy). The one to be on here in my view is Belle Peinture. Her yard are in better form now and she gets in off a basement mark. Three runs over six and seven furlongs yielded nothing, but she ran better than her finishing position suggested on her handicap debut here, holding Sarlat in the process. She looked like the trip was sharp for her, and she was done no favours on the home turn with one or two horses racing wide in front of her. Having blown the turn, she ran on really well once she gathered herself up and looked to be doing her best work at the finish. She looks likely to appreciate the step up in trip, being by Arc winner Peintre Celebre, with her siblings including a winner over 12.5 furlongs. She probably isn't a superstar and if Right Of Appeal is anything like OR75+ he might win, but the selection should certainly be running on when others have cried enough, and she seems to have a temperament which suggests she should keep improving with racing. she is too big at 14/1+.

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Afternoon bets:

One race of interest for Thursday afternoon. A possible evening bet will follow, released before 4.00pm.

2.10 Ludlow

Taffy Thomas 3pts win @ 12/1 (Coral, guaranteed, 11/1 generally guaranteed)

Cool Bob 1pt each-way @ 40/1 (Coral, guaranteed, 33/1 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Ludlow tends to suit horses with a decent cruising speed who can jump effectively, rather than plodders who tend to get outpaced, and Taffy Thomas fits that bill for this Amateur Riders chase, which is well contested but contains any number of exposed participants. The selection looks one of the better handicapped horses off a mark of OR104, especially in the context of his soft ground Market Rasen win in July 2012. That track wouldn't be dissimilar to Ludlow, being right handed and quite sharp, and the selection seemed to act well around there. Jockey Sam Bowen is a decent up and coming pilot, and the horse would appear to have been laid out for the race. If he gets into a good rhythm, he is handicapped to win and he looks to big at the prices.

I can't resist an additional bet on the outsider of the field, Cool Bob. His reappearance after a long layoff at this track was more promising than his finishing position suggests, and he stayed on well enough over an inadequate two miles at Uttoxeter latest. He is 0-38 for his career, but has shown enough promise to win a race like this on more than one occasion and has a couple of good course runs over hurdles. He is arguably unexposed over the bigger obstacles despite the fact that he is an eleven year old, and he is another who appears to have been laid out for the race. At the prices he is too big, and is worth an each-way interest with an extra win bet at Betfair SP.

Profit & loss: day: +1.00 / month: +26.50 / year: +26.50

Tuesday 14th January 2014

Just one selection for Tuesday.

2.50 Southwell Ishisoba 2pts each-way @ 8/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 3pts win @ Betfair SP

Ishisoba probably has no right to be winning a maiden off a mark of OR50, but there is little doubt she has come to herself in recent weeks on this surface. Dare I say it she has improved, and with her stable in very good form just lately, she looks a knocking each-way bet against the favourite here. The form of her previous third behind Stun Gun and Severiano is quite simply the best course form on offer here, and she arguably deserves to be shorter than Whispering Star (has done nothing on the track, looks a handicap project) and Diamondsinthesky (second in a very poor 5f maiden last time out). The others don't look up to much unless La Paiva suddenly starts to see out her race stronger than she has done before. The favourite might just blitz this lot, but the drop back to six furlongs sets off alarm bells to me, she weakened quickly at Kempton and is not a strong finisher. I'd fancy the more experienced Ishisoba if she can get her into a battle, particularly at a time of year when I think four year olds have an advantage over three year olds despite conceding 16lb in this race. We'll have a decent play here, with three points at Betfair SP in the hope that the favourite goes off short and boosts the win only price on Betfair.

Profit & loss: day: -7.00 / month: +25.50 / year: +25.50

Saturday 11th January 2014

Just one selection for Saturday.

3.50 Kempton Swnymor 5pts win @ 15/2 (Betfair Sportsbook, Coral, guaranteed, 7/1 generally guaranteed)

Handles soft and heavy ground well, and has plenty of form on tight turning tracks on the flat which could suggest that this often keen sort might be at home around a track like Kempton. He started out his hurdling career at Tim Vaughan's stable last season, and came close to winning a Grade 1, falling at the last with the race at his mercy. That race worked out well, and although he hasn't gone on since then (more bad runs than good), he does look attractively handicapped off OR137. He has switched to Rebecca Curtis, who is a trainer I respect, and I am prepared to forgive his earlier run this season on the basis that her stable hadn't really hit form. They seem to be in better nick lately, and if the selection is going to put his best foot forward I think today's test offers ideal conditions. A very capable 10lb claimer is booked, and Curtis' use of such claimers is well documented - she used Patrick Corbett to good effect last season on a number of occasions. He is well worth his claim, and the price here looks very fair given the opposition on the whole don't look terrific. Deep Trouble is the one I'd be wary of, but I think better ground will suit him and I expect spring festivals will see him in his best light.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +32.50 / year: +32.50