One selection for this afternoon, a possible evening bet will be added, details either way before 4.30pm (we'll have no interest in the first at Wolverhampton).
1.30 Lingfield Hot Stock 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 22/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 20/1 Stan James, Betpack.com, William Hill, guaranteed)
Spreadable could be miles ahead of the handicapper, but he hasn't raced at Lingfield yet, and he hasn't been beating much at Wolverhampton. He is taken on at the prices under a 12lb penalty. Hot Stock looks really interesting here. His Southwell form behind Razin' Hell, where he gave the winner 8lbs and first run, has been well and truly franked with that horse running well in a better race next time, and winning a poor event very handily yesterday. Hot Stock disappointed three days later, but was reported to have run flat and he did have a hard race against Razin' Hell. That run is forgiven, and he turns up today off 4lb higher having had a few weeks break. He was fresh for that first run, so clearly the holiday can be regarded as a positive rather than a negative. He is nicely bred, and is by a sire whose progeny are profitable to back blind on this surface, with an actual versus expected ratio of 1.05 according to my latest information. That and his Kempton run behind Meritocracy would suggest that he acts well on polytrack. Outside of the favourite, this doesn't look much of a race and the second and third in the market, Basil Berry and Ain't No Surprise, don't look as good as the selection in my view. Hot Stock is entered at the sales in February, but I wouldn't read too much into that as he has been before and was withdrawn. I'd say connections are very likely to be going for it today; stall four is an uncomplicated draw and at around 20/1+, he rates excellent value.
Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +5.50 / year: +5.50
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