7.30 Wolverhampton Witchy Woman 6pts win @ 7/2 (Generally)
I can't see anything remotely progressive amongst the outsiders in this contest, and I make this between the top two in the betting. That said, I think the favourite Keep to The Beat is really short at 11/10 here. She was flattered to get as close as she did to Spreadable the last day, and that rival ultimately won very easily. The rest in behind were of a very low standard, and even Trinity Lorraine, who finished third, only stayed on one pace late under maximum pressure. Witchy Woman sticks out a mile for me here and looks a point and a half too big here at 7/2 (I'd make her 2/1). She ran really well after a break at Southwell, and although that's a different surface, there is no reason she shouldn't act around here. She hit the front a furlong too soon, and probably just tired close home and may come on for that run. Danny Tudhope retains the ride, he will know the filly better today and I think she'll take the beating. We'll have a decent sized stake.
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Afternoon bets:
One selection for this afternoon, a possible evening bet will follow - details either way before 4.30pm.
2.00 Lingfield Evacusafe Lady 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Bet Victor, guaranteed, 14/1 generally guaranteed)
There are a couple of "sexy" horses in here, with Basil Berry and Global Explorer top of the list as improving sprinters. However, both have questions to answer at this trip and they look short enough in light of that. Evacusafe Lady is another who is trying this trip for the first time in quite a while, and she is also a maiden of 14 starts, but there are reasons to believe she might have things her own way today. She has come up trumps with the draw in stall 1, and you would imagine connections will try to make all. She has a piece of form from Newmarket last autumn, when she ran loose on the lead and was only caught close home by Fray is a well contested maiden that entitles her to respect in this company. She ran well on the lead over a mile here on her last start before stamina became an issue, and although the step back two furlongs in trip is extreme, she has enough early toe to get the lead. The booking of a 3lb claimer who has executed similar tactics in the past is really interesting, and this doesn't look as strong a contest as the class five she contested last time. The stable haven't been running as many horses this winter as last, but they did have a winner the other day which bodes well. Anything around 14/1+ looks too big.
Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: -8.50 / year: -8.50
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