Saturday 15th February 2014

Yet another second place finish yesterday to add to what must be a dozen since the turn of the year at this stage. I know the winner Tokyo Brown well, and I can't quite believe he was good enough to beat Blazing Desert - much of the credit has to go to Luke Morris, who is an absolute beast of a pilot on the all weather this winter - we never looked like passing him until after the line.

Two races of interest today.

2.55 Haydock 

Nuts N Bolts 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Red Rocco 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Generally guaranteed)

This will obviously be an absolute marathon, and a slugfest in the conditions. Nuts N Bolts has been laid out for this contest, and represents the same yard who won it two years in succession with Silver By Nature not so long ago. The selection won over course and distance on his seasonal debut, marking himself down as a staying chaser of some potential. He was pulled up at Wetherby over Christmas, and indeed Lucinda Russell's horses have been out of form just lately, but those factors are incorporated into the price and the 14/1 looks too big for a second course and distance victory.

Red Rocco finished second behind Nuts N Bolts in November and looks well handicapped opposing off 9lb better terms. The caveat is that he has been pulled up twice since, but his stabe weren't in great form either up until Splash Of Ginge won the Betfair hurdle for them last weekend. The horse looks a bit of a thinker and a first time visor is applied in order to sharpen his ideas up. If it enables him to focus and perhaps travel a bit better, he definitely has the staying power to repel all raiders off bottom weight of 10-4.

4.30 Lingfield Run It Twice 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 11/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)

Dave Evans' string are coming back into form, and his Run It Twice looks nicely handicapped off 4lb higher than his course and distance win a couple of months back. He ran a really nice race last time out, held up off a slow pace set by Go Far and The Happy Hammer over seven furlongs, doing all his best work at the finish. He looked close to the top of his game there, and the return of Martin Harley in the saddle is significant today - Harley won on the horse in December and knows how to ride him. For a horse who looks progressive and has won five of his 23 all weather starts, double figure prices are too big and I think we have Club House to beat.

Profit & loss: day: -12.00 / month: -16.10 / year: -29.30