Three interests for us.
12.40 Cheltenham Kentucky Hyden 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 8/1 (Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, Ladbrokes, Coral, guaranteed) - E/W 2nd
Interesting here that powerful connections are happy to take on Le Rocher again, and one look at the video of the Chepstow race tells you why. The selection was ridden too prominently by David Bass, and may have done well to finish second in the end. I expect Barry Geraghty to ride him with more restraint today, and I think he can get the better of his conqueror. I make this between the top three in the betting, because I thinkBallyglasheen will be better on good ground and Ronaldinho might not be the finished article yet. The favourite might be hard to beat, but at the prices 8/1 about the selection each-way looks a knocking bet.
12.55 Doncaster Valdez 5pts win @ 2/1 (Generally guaranteed) - WON
I half fancy Valdez as an Arkle horse, although the jury is out for now and he needs to step up to Graded company today first to be talked about in those terms. He is a brave jumper, and has loads of gears. His Newbury performance went right under the radar, he was absolutely superb that day and if the same horse shows up today, he will win. Fox Appeal might just be better going right handed, and Caid Du Berlais looks too short for what he has achieved. 2/1 on Valdez is far too big and here's hoping he drifts out further and hoses up.
3.15 Doncaster
The Druid's Nephew 3pts win @ 9/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, Ladbrokes)
Time For Rupert 3pts win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed)
A good renewal, but I'm keen to take on Unioniste at the prices. The Druid's Nephew is given the benefit of the doubt as the possessor of an outstanding piece of form last time out, when second to Le Bec,, with the third and fourth fighting out the Welsh National next time out. He hasn't found winning easy, but he is only a seven year old and seems to be improving based on that run. Doncaster should be find for him, as should the ground.
Time For Rupert is clearly on a National prep here, and you won't find a better handicapped horse running today given his previous form. The assessor has given him a real chance off a mark of OR143. A flat left handed track is fine for him, and as a horse who won an Aintree handicap hurdle (50/1 that day) a few years back you can see what connections are thinking. A good run here, and perhaps a penalty, would see him get into the National off a nice weight and I just think 14/1 is too big given his class, the opposition, and the fact that he only has to carry 11-2 in this company. Denis O'Regan rides this track really well, and I expect a much better performance than at Ascot, which would not have suited him.
Profit & loss: day: +5.00 / month: +10.50 / year: +10.50
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