Excellent racing today, but stamina will be at a premium as well as the ability to handle heavy ground. A busy one for us.
1.50 Newbury Kilmurvy 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 8/1 (Generally guaranteed)
Looks an out and out stayer, and is consistent with it. Deserves to get his head in front and the step up to three miles plus this afternoon looks like it could be the deciding factor in getting another win under his belt. The ground here will be bottomless, and fitness and the ability to stay vital. The stable's horses are in really good form right now, and jockey Nick Scholfield also at the top of his game with two winners at Kempton yesterday, one for this trainer. I can't have Upswing coming here off a fall, and I'm happy to take on the Lavelle horse: hers seem to be under a cloud to me and a couple of them didn't get home yesterday. All in all, I think the selection represents excellent value at 8/1.
3.15 Warwick Majala 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes, 13/2 generally guaranteed)
It might not seem like the best of days for stepping a horse up in trip, but Majala is probably the class act in this field and we know he handles the ground really well. I think class rises to the top even more so in these conditions, and there is statistical evidence to suggest higher weighted horses are performing better in heavy ground handicaps in recent seasons, going against commonly held wisdom that suggests a low weight is beneficial. The selection has a course win to his name and the stable had a winner the other day. Denis O'Regan looks a really strong jockey booking and, given that I'm keen to take on the top two here, I'm happy to play him each-way even with seven runners - I think a couple of the outsiders here won't run their races on the ground.
Cheltenian 3pts win @ 9/1 (Generally guaranteed)
Far West 3pts win @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed)
Cheltenian is by a sire, Astarabad, whose progeny go really well in testing conditions and his knee action would suggest this ground will see him perform at his best. He is a bit of a chancy selection given the fact that he was out injured for so long, but he is a classy horse and it is not often you get to back one so potentially well handicapped at a price like 9/1. On second inspection (after I had initially dissed his chances) his comeback run wasn't bad at all, and if he can get over his lack of experience here I think he has every chance off his favourable weight.
Far West has excellent soft ground form behind Melodic Rendezvous, and it looks the strongest on offer in this race. The form has been franked and the selection has an excuse for his next time out run, when he was reported to have been suffering from stomach ulcers. Harry Derham has shown in the past when winning the Greatwood for Nicholls on Brampour that the big occasion doesn't phase him, and I think double figures are too big.
Profit & loss: day: -16.00 / month: +6.40 / year: -6.80
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