1.30 Leopardstown Mallowney 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 22/1 (Bet Victor, William Hill, guaranteed, 20/1 generally guaranteed)
A cracking renewal of the Irish Arkle. Defy Logic is the best horse in this race to my mind, but I think there has to be a chance he will bounce today after his win at Christmas. That might sound like an unusual statement to make, but I couldn't believe the fractions he set that day and it pretty much seemed to bottom Champagne Fever, who was forced into an error and eventually well beaten. It is the mark of Defy Logic's class that he held off Trifolium so easily, and the race time was very impressive - more than five seconds faster than standard on a day when every other race was slow on the clock. My instinct is always to take on horses after they've given a peak out performance, and I'm happy to do so with Defy Logic today.
I don't think Felix Yonger merits his rating. He hammered Trifolium on his penultimate start, but that rival was far too keen and tanked through part of the race, giving himself no chance of finishing effectively and setting the contest up for his rival. The form looks questionable and at the prices, he is taken on. I would suggest Mozoltov might prefer going right handed, and I'm not a huge Trifolium fan - he has a big, exaggerated action and occasionally makes a funny shape when he jumps a fence. He isn't for me in Grade 1 company.
Mallowney was a cracking each-way bet with the dead eight lining up, but with 1/4 odds paid on the seven, and Irish Thistle appearing to be a no hoper who is probably pot hunting for prize money, he still appeals. He has done little wrong in two chase starts and has had an ideal prep from what we have seen on the course. He was well held by Mozoltov on chase debut, but was making his seasonal and chase debut that day and wasn't far behind the winner jumping the last, before fitness probably became an issue. His win last time was impressive, he jumped well and beat a decent horse in Ned Buntline fairly handily. I think he needs to improve at least a stone to be winning today, but conditions will suit him well and he improved gradually over hurdles last season. I see no reason to believe this natural jumper has hit a ceiling of his ability yet, and I think he can outrun his odds for his connections, who should be commended for being brave enough to place him in this Grade 1.
Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +5.50 / year: +5.50
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