6.00 Wolverhampton Belle Peinture 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed, 14/1 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP - E/W 2nd @20/1
An interesting market for this race, with the favourite Right Of Appeal having shown little in his three starts, and obviously unproven over the trip. His yard have won this race in the past, so you would imagine they know what they have here, but you have to ask yourself if there is a possibility that the horse just isn't very good, and if he deserves to be as short as 5/4 at all? Big Kenny looks a potential non stayer, so you're left with five others to chose from in finding some value here.
Miss Verdoyante probably isn't very good, the step up in trip is an obvious move but she doesn't look anything like a stable star and is too short despite her connections. Izbuska looked a wrong 'un in a handicap yesterday, although she may have resented the visor. Sarlat looks moderate, and Water For Life has shown ability, but doesn't seem keen on racing (hasn't responded to the whip, has looked keen and fizzy). The one to be on here in my view is Belle Peinture. Her yard are in better form now and she gets in off a basement mark. Three runs over six and seven furlongs yielded nothing, but she ran better than her finishing position suggested on her handicap debut here, holding Sarlat in the process. She looked like the trip was sharp for her, and she was done no favours on the home turn with one or two horses racing wide in front of her. Having blown the turn, she ran on really well once she gathered herself up and looked to be doing her best work at the finish. She looks likely to appreciate the step up in trip, being by Arc winner Peintre Celebre, with her siblings including a winner over 12.5 furlongs. She probably isn't a superstar and if Right Of Appeal is anything like OR75+ he might win, but the selection should certainly be running on when others have cried enough, and she seems to have a temperament which suggests she should keep improving with racing. she is too big at 14/1+.
___________________________________________________
Afternoon bets:
One race of interest for Thursday afternoon. A possible evening bet will follow, released before 4.00pm.
2.10 Ludlow
Taffy Thomas 3pts win @ 12/1 (Coral, guaranteed, 11/1 generally guaranteed)
Cool Bob 1pt each-way @ 40/1 (Coral, guaranteed, 33/1 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP
Ludlow tends to suit horses with a decent cruising speed who can jump effectively, rather than plodders who tend to get outpaced, and Taffy Thomas fits that bill for this Amateur Riders chase, which is well contested but contains any number of exposed participants. The selection looks one of the better handicapped horses off a mark of OR104, especially in the context of his soft ground Market Rasen win in July 2012. That track wouldn't be dissimilar to Ludlow, being right handed and quite sharp, and the selection seemed to act well around there. Jockey Sam Bowen is a decent up and coming pilot, and the horse would appear to have been laid out for the race. If he gets into a good rhythm, he is handicapped to win and he looks to big at the prices.
I can't resist an additional bet on the outsider of the field, Cool Bob. His reappearance after a long layoff at this track was more promising than his finishing position suggests, and he stayed on well enough over an inadequate two miles at Uttoxeter latest. He is 0-38 for his career, but has shown enough promise to win a race like this on more than one occasion and has a couple of good course runs over hurdles. He is arguably unexposed over the bigger obstacles despite the fact that he is an eleven year old, and he is another who appears to have been laid out for the race. At the prices he is too big, and is worth an each-way interest with an extra win bet at Betfair SP.
Profit & loss: day: +1.00 / month: +26.50 / year: +26.50
No comments:
Post a Comment