Windhoek and Zip Top will probably be tuned to the minute for their powerful stables, but both have something to prove on the surface and the latter with fitness, and I'm inclined to take the pair on each-way with Banoffee. The selection ran a couple of nice races on polytrack on her last two starts and has clearly been prepared with a Dubai campaign in mind. She looks quite well handicapped and favoured by the race conditions, and she has also come up trumps with a decent draw in stall three. she was very keen over twelve furlongs at Kempton in a race that has worked out really well, and she tanked until the two furlong pole when she began to weaken. I don't think she quite gets twelve furlongs, but she might just be very good over this intermediate distance. She is really interesting having won around a tight left handed track like Chester and her shrewd trainer seems to have placed her very well here. Kieren Fallon takes the ride and he might just try to make all.
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Afternoon Bets:
An early afternoon selection as follows.
An additional selection may follow before 2.00pm.
1.40 Southwell Prisca 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 8/1 (Generally guaranteed)
Stable form, a positive jockey booking, and a neat piece of placement would be enough to convince me that Prisca will be ready to go after an absence today and, in a race where many of those who oppose her will never win a race, she looks too big a price at the odds for a stable whose horses have a 20% strike rate at this track. A rating of OR68 might flatter her a little, but some of her two year old form is head and shoulders above what this lot have achieved and if he has trained on at all for her new stable, she should go close here. Her ability to act on the surface has to be taken on trust, but there is some encouragement on pedigree and her run style suggests she should cope fine (looks a forward going grinder). With the outsider here looking a complete no hoper, and many of these just not good enough, she rates a very good each-way bet against the favourite.
Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: +10.50 / year: +10.50
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