1.30 Southwell Novalist 2pts each-way @ 14/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 12/1 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP
Novalist is moderate, but so are all his rivals and he is both well handicapped and proven to act on this surface. The selection was unfit on his seasonal all weather debut in early January, but followed up with a better effort a couple of weeks later. His run at Wolverhampton five days ago offered more promise still - he ran all the way to the line, doing his best work at the finish, and I would suggest he should be cherry ripe for today's race. He races off a mark of OR45 which he can definitely win off, and his capable claimer takes off 3lb and knows him well at this stage. Most of these will struggle to win a race of any kind this winter but Novalist is game and displays the ability to keep going at the same pace, grinding it out in a similar fashion to most horses to take well to this surface.
3.05 Southwell Hannah's Turn 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 6/1 (Generally guaranteed)
Hannah's Turn is a bit of a beast on this surface and she looks far too big in relation to Frontier Fighter today. Frontier Fighter is very good on this surface, but a mark of OR95 looks very high to me and I think he'll do well to overcome it. Hannah's Turn is rated 10lb inferior but has run above that level on numerous occasions this winter. Seven furlongs is a question mark for her, but I find it interesting Luke Morris takes the ride from Shelley Birkett who, while very capable, isn't in the class of Morris. Luke will know just how to ride this filly to maximise her chances of winning. As I pointed out the other day, proven fibresand form rises to the top time and time again on this surface and with the other four runners having none between them, I'm happy to play each-way to protect most of my stake if the selection finishes second.
Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: +12.90 / year: -0.30
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