2.50 Southwell Ishisoba 2pts each-way @ 8/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 3pts win @ Betfair SP
Ishisoba probably has no right to be winning a maiden off a mark of OR50, but there is little doubt she has come to herself in recent weeks on this surface. Dare I say it she has improved, and with her stable in very good form just lately, she looks a knocking each-way bet against the favourite here. The form of her previous third behind Stun Gun and Severiano is quite simply the best course form on offer here, and she arguably deserves to be shorter than Whispering Star (has done nothing on the track, looks a handicap project) and Diamondsinthesky (second in a very poor 5f maiden last time out). The others don't look up to much unless La Paiva suddenly starts to see out her race stronger than she has done before. The favourite might just blitz this lot, but the drop back to six furlongs sets off alarm bells to me, she weakened quickly at Kempton and is not a strong finisher. I'd fancy the more experienced Ishisoba if she can get her into a battle, particularly at a time of year when I think four year olds have an advantage over three year olds despite conceding 16lb in this race. We'll have a decent play here, with three points at Betfair SP in the hope that the favourite goes off short and boosts the win only price on Betfair.
Profit & loss: day: -7.00 / month: +25.50 / year: +25.50
No comments:
Post a Comment