Tuesday 21st January 2014

A really good card at Southwell today, and we have one selection.

3.15 Southwell Alben Star 5pts win @ 6/1 (William Hill, guaranteed, 11/2 Totesport, Betfred, Paddy Power, Independents, guaranteed)

There is an argument to be made for Even Stevens here, but this looks a slightly better race than his last win here and he has gone up 8lb for that win to a career high mark, and it is not guaranteed that his visor will work as well third time up. Saying that, it is difficult to see anything that raced against him last time turning the tables; he had everything else pretty much cooked by halfway and none of those who reoppose look up to his class on the surface. Unless something bounces back to form out of the blue (Equitania would be a possible to do so), that leaves Alben Star and Woolfall Sovereign as the two horses unexposed on the surface. The latter will probably need the run in my view, and he doesn't appeal to me at the prices. 

Alben Star is unproven on the surface, but I have a theory that a lack of fibresand experience (or indeed a U.S.A. suffix) is not as important over the straight five furlongs here as on the round course. Nonetheless, there is encouragement on breeding  with the selection being by Clodovil (15% progeny strike rate here) out of a Magic Ring mare. Magic Ring himself sired a few Southwell winners and is damsire to some very good fibresand horses such as Take Cover. Running style is all important over this trip, and I think the selection is tailor made for the course and distance. He seems to have little in the way of a turn of foot, but is the sort of grinder who can maintain his speed over this distance, and I think a straight track will help given that he has appeared to lose ground around turns on a couple of occasions this winter. His recent form  has been good, and the winner of the Wolverhampton race he finished third in last time has followed up since. Richard Fahey's stable are now in very good form, and I think the selection has plenty enough going for him to make him a bet at 11/2+.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +21.70 / year: +21.70