1.40 Taunton Redlynch Rock 2pts win AND 1pt place @ Betfair SP (50/1 guaranteed available with Paddy Power and independents)
Redlynch Rock has been written off as a no hoper here, but there are a few reasons to believe he might outrun massive odds this afternoon. His trainer Bob Buckler's horses have been running a bit better this winter, the yard having suffered the effects of a virus in 2012 and early 2013. Indeed this trainer / jockey combo landed the conditional jockeys handicap hurdle at this track in December with The Happy Warrior. It is interesting that horse is not entered here; he looks like he would benefit from a step up in trip and it is curious he goes to Chepstow in a few days instead. The selection has little in the way of form, but he didn't look a natural over fences and was a bit keen, so the return to hurdling might well suit and the application of a first time tongue tie suggests the team may have worked on breathing issues. The most interesting variable here is the ground. Redlynch Rock has a very rounded knee action, and he is by a sire Brian Boru whose progeny are beginning to acquire a reputation as mud lovers. He has had little chance on this type of surface before but might well improve for it. This is a speculative selection at best, and isn't one for big stakes at all, but in this kind of company the market has overpriced him and I'm happy to take a chance that the Betfair SP is kind to us (currently trades at 100 on the machine). We'll have a small win and place interest.
3.20 Southwell Waveguide 5pts win @ 3/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 11/4 generally guaranteed)
Thatchmaster is the favourite here, but he looks short enough at 4/6 for a horse who has never shown much willingness in a finish, and he is taken on with Waveguide, who is more consistent and represents a trainer in fine form, who scalped another odds on shot from this stable at Lingfield a few days ago. The selection is by Dubawi, whose progeny have a fine record on this surface including first time up, and although she is 0-11 lifetime she appears to be quite game and has twice shown promise on artificial surfaces. She gets 5lb from the favourite, and has the services of a fair 7lb claimer which is interesting - this yard are shrewd with the use of apprentice riders and place them well more often than not. If the selection can sit on the shoulders of the favourite, I think she might be able to worry him out of it in the home straight unless the gelding operation has made a big impact on his temperament.
Profit & loss: day: -8.00 / month: -2.50 / year: -2.50
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