Wednesday 12th February

Just one race of interest for Wednesday.

3.50 Musselburgh

Trust Thomas 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Sir Pitt 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

I've had a decent stake on this race, because it's one I feel I've a good handle on and some of the prices look quite a bit out from what I made them on my tissue. There is quite a bit of pace on here, with Figaro, Pas Trop Tard, Town Mouse and potentially one or two others likely to go forward. With that in mind, this might fall to something that can travel well off a strong pace and come with a late challenge to win. The likeliest candidates to my mind are Forced Family Fun, Trust Thomas and Sir Pitt. Forced Family Fun is the favourite, and he may just have a bit in hand of these taking into account he gets a 10lb allowance, but I'm not sure John Quinn's jumpers are running to the top of their form and at the prices I'm happy to take him on.

Trust Thomas represents a small stable going well of late, and looks progressive. He seems to be getting the hang of hurdling, and he travelled well at Wetherby last time out, where the race didn't really go his way. He gave the winner a good head start off a relatively slow pace, was hampered when challenging having to be switched, and then intimidated by the winner on the run in. He appeals as the type of horse who might improve for professional handling, and the booking of Wilson Renwick, who rides this track well, in place of a claimer looks a positive.

At a bigger price a chance is taken on Sir Pitt. He makes his debut for a new trainer today, but the form of his penultimate run at Ffos Llas looks very strong in the context of this race. He finished a close fourth that day, and of the other four around him, two have gone a close second since, the other two winning. He travelled best of all there and probably wants better than the heavy, bog-like ground he ran on that day. He probably just bounced last time out but he still ran well under front running tactics he may not have enjoyed. He has been very leniently treated here, having been dropped 10lb since Ffos Llas and a capable conditional takes a further 5lb off. He is far too big at 25/1, it's a bit of a pity most bookmakers have him at 16's although he is still worth backing at that price. We'll have an additional portion of the bet at Betfair SP.

Profit & loss: day: -7.00 / month: +5.90 / year: -7.30