4.25 Kempton Seamster 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 15/2 (Bet 365, guaranteed, 7/1 Coral guaranteed, 13/2 Ladbrokes, Independents, guaranteed) - E/W 2nd
The market here revolves around Indus Valley, who has apparently been backed in multiples as part of a huge Barney Curley coup. Some clients will remember we preempted 3/4 of Barney's 2010 gamble, landing a double from a trixie. There was a 1/3 shot in there beaten, and I'm happy to take on this 1/3 shot as a sprinter who is 1/26 for his career, and by a sire who has a poor 5% strike rate at this course. If you told me I could have backed Seamster at 15/2 this morning I'd have laughed in your face, the selection is relatively lightly raced for a seven year old, with 25 starts, 21 of those coming on the all weather. He has won three and been in the first three on a further five occasions from those starts, which is very solid for a horse at this level. He routinely comes to hand in the winter, and his three wins have all been between December and February at Southwell. He does act well here too, though, and was sent on far too soon last time out when clear a furlong out over seven furlongs only to fade in the closing stages. The step back in trip today looks a positive, and the horse has reacted to well to blinkers the last twice. Graham Lee takes the ride and the selection is simply too big a price not to back each-way.
Profit & loss: day: -0.20 / month: +21.50 / year: +21.50
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