7.30 Kempton Mary Le Bow 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 11/2 (Generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd
An interesting contest for three year olds in which three horses who opposed last time out make up the front three in the market. I'm not really keen on the profiles of anything outside of the front three, and as a result, Mary Le Bow is selected after analysis of her recent fourth. The selection is a small enough horse, but she seems hearty and tough and has improved with each of her four career starts. She took a while to get going at Lingfield, and it is also noticeable that she has a bit of a look around when she sees daylight and hangs ever so slightly, more of a loss of concentration than anything else. It is interesting that the excellent Luke Morris, who rode her that day, retains the ride and you would imagine he has suggested trying her in cheekpieces. I think they will sharpen her up nicely and of the three who come from that race, she appeals to me as the most likely to appreciate the two furlong step up in trip. The price discrepancy between them looks a little off in my view, with the last time out winner best priced 9/4, Bountiful Sin at 4/1 in a place, and Mary Le Bow 11/2. It makes sense to have a fairly aggressive each-way bet, with most of our stake returned provided she finishes in the three. I think Morris will ride her a little more prominently. I expect the last 100yds to be a bit of a dogfight, with the selection hopefully just holding on from any closers.
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Afternoon bet:
One selection for this afternoon. An evening bet may follow, details before 4.30pm either way.
1.30 Lingfield Bennelong 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 10/1 (Coral, guaranteed, 9/1 generally guaranteed)
Moderate stuff here at best, and although the favourite should win on figures, he has been put up 2lb for not winning and I'm loathe to take 6/4 about a horse in a 0-60. The dead eight line up here, and it looks a race with a good each-way opportunity. Stag Hill and elegant Ophelia both come from the Low Key contest at Kempton, and although that form is fair in the contest of this race, one of them is 1/20 on the surface, and the other 0/10. Both were well beaten and don't look like troubling the judge here. A chance is taken, therefore, on the old rogue Bennelong. He is a strong travelling horse who does not want to be in front too soon, but he got an appalling ride from Amir Quinn last time out at Kempton in a much better race than this. He was sent to the front around two and a half furlongs from home, still travelling strongly and with only The Ginger Berry, who is improving at a rate of knots and very well handicapped, for company. Having tried to match strides with the winner, he fell in a hole late on, but it is no wonder because I think that horse could be rated OR75+ by the end of the season. It is interesting, then, that Shane Kelly takes over in the plate for the first time today. Kelly has impressed greatly on similar types over the course of the last two winters, holding up these bridle merchants and delivering them late. These horses are often honest enough, but problematic physically and hence find less than expected off the bridle. Four of Bennelong's five wins have come in fields of 7-9 runners, so you'd think a hold up ride off a slow pace will probably suit him better than most here. Expect Kelly to give him the right ride, and even though he may not win, I think he'll go close and at least nab some place money.
Profit & loss: day: -6.80 / month: +25.60 / year: +12.40
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