Friday 7th March 2014

We almost landed another big gamble with Shrewd Bob backed from 22/1 in a place down to 5/1 before the off last night, with 10c/15c rule 4 included depending where you backed him. The selection did well to finish second but didn't get the best of rides - the race was lost when Atzeni allowed a no hoper to take his ground inside the first furlong and got stuck behind him. Still, we picked up each-way money with second place.

One selection for this evening. It's pretty much all roads lead to Cheltenham now, and at this stage it doesn't look like we'll be betting tomorrow. It's not usually a day's racing I get too involved in and my focus will be on Prestbury Park next week from tomorrow.

8.30 Wolverhampton Helmsley Flyer 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 7/1 (Generally guaranteed) - WON

Helmsley Flyer looks a big enough price for a horse who won over course and distance two starts ago, and may not have stayed the extra two furlongs last time out. He holds Grandiloquent even on that form, and I am struggling to see why he is 7/1 and that rival 7/2. The selection probably needs to improve to win this, but I don't think Pinotage really looked like winning last time out and he might be a run or two off his peak yet. David O'Meara has a habit of improving horses and I doubt this four year old has stopped improving after just the one win. He travelled really well behind the pacesetters that day he won, and I think he might have this run to suit him. A potential danger would be a back to form No Compromise, but she has shown very little in the last year. This might well be decided by who turns up in the best form on the night / who gets the best ride, and with a tight contest like that I see no reason for the selection to be the price he is - the market could well be more congested before the off and I make the selection more like a 9/2 shot.  We'll play each-way and win.

Profit & loss: day: +24.50 / month: +34.60 / year: +48.80

Thursday 6th March 2014

Repetition didn't run to his best today, that's the chance you take when forgiving one bad run!

One for this evening.

7.25 Kempton Shrewd Bob 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 20/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Bet Victor, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd 10c rule 4

This is a little bit "boom or bust", so I've weighted the stake towards the win part of the bet. Firstly to explain that bookmakers have been very wary of the favourite Bereka, who was well backed this morning by punters who put 2 + 2 together and came up with two ex-Curley horses out and two Tate horses (Tate worked with A.P. Stringer, a Curley associate, last year). The favourite is more or less defensively priced as a result and I'm happy to take her on because her form doesn't look that great, and you don't get rich backing first time back fillies against colts in sprint maidens. 

Shrewd Bob is speculative, but there are reasons to back him at these big prices. He cost €20,000 so wasn't cheap for Robert Eddery (sales price quadrupled as a yearling) and it is fair to assume he showed some ability at home given he was sent off 7/4 on his debut, admittedly in a poor enough maiden. He is by Whipper, however, and fast ground would definitely not have suited this horse, who has a really exaggerated action. Whipper's progeny go really well on soft ground. He hinted at ability a few times before being put away, and I find it interesting connections have left him as a colt. He looked like he had filling out to do last year and it may be he will have bulked up during his six month hiatus. He didn't really see out his races last year, and he was over keen (may have had breathing problems too) but those issues can be worked on and if he comes back as a more mature horse, he is no 16/1 shot in this field. Andrea Atzeni rode him on his debut, and he rides tonight. He has been awarded a handicap mark of OR55, so it is interesting connections are bothering with maidens at all. He is entered in another such contest at Southwell in a few days and it looks a little bit like a plan to me. We might be barking completely up the wrong tree, but if the pieces fall into place here the selection could outrun a very big price.

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Afternoon bet:

Rebellious Guest won handsomely last night and is now on course for the Winter Derby. 10/1 and 11/1 in a place was a ridiculous price.

One selection for this afternoon, and a possible evening bet to follow at 5.00pm.

3.55 Southwell Repetition 5pts win @ 11/2 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 5/1 Coral, guaranteed, 9/2 generally guaranteed)

We have a fair handle on this form as regular supporters of Imaginary World, who has won twice for us and landed us place money once. I think she'll be slightly outclassed this afternoon by Repetition, who looks very progressive on this surface. We have to excuse one bad run, but clients will know that's something I'm happy to do, particularly if a horse is turned out quickly afterwards, suggesting there is no physical problem. In addition, the horse was ridden by an inexperienced apprentice last time and the run might be best forgotten in terms of the form book. Previously, the horse had pulled clear of a very good Southwell yardstick, Abi Scarlet, when finishing second to The Great Gabrial over today's course and distance. This doesn't look as strong a contest. Cape Of Hope isn't proven on the surface, Sofia's Number One has been dropping himself out too many times and looks out of form, and Khajaaly has yet to win here and isn't too resolute in a finish. Alpha Tauri would be the danger for me, but I think Repetition is better handicapped based on his penultimate run. He is given the chance to prove himself still in good heart, and he makes plenty of appeal at 9/2+.

Profit & loss: day: -3.40 / month: +10.10 / year: +24.30

Wednesday 5th March 2014

It's a tricky night to be betting at Kempton but we have two interests to relatively small stakes that look overpriced enough to warrant backing.

6.30 Kempton Rebellious Guest 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 11/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed) - WON

The ten furlongs at Kempton is run on the inside course and is quite a sharp test. Spa's Dancer is drawn in stall one and has Ryan Moore on top, so I think that horse dictates how this race will be run. Ryan knows the horse has never won at this trip, so I expect him to set a steady tempo if possible and he might just get an uncontested lead. In such cases, horses with a bit of speed and class are favoured and I like the look of Rebellious Guest from a wide draw. He looks overpriced at anything in double figures, and he has had a good winter already picking up a couple of handicaps. He didn't get a good ride from Tom Queally last time out and I would hope the jockey is a bit more patient with him this evening instead of sending him five horses wide on the home turn. The trip is a question mark, but I think this horse has loads of class and an entry in the Winter Derby would suggest that sending him over ten furlongs is more than just connections chancing their arm. He looks the call to land a third win of the winter at a nice price.

7.30 Kempton Baan 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 28/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed) 

This is a bad race, and I think the eleven year old Baan has been written off for no good reason. He has been amateur ridden all winter and he tends to struggle to get his head in front under such handling. He had excuses last time out with tack problems during the race, and I think he still has the ability to figure here off a mark of OR57. He ran well around this time last year, and the booking of Rosie Jessop, who claims 3lb and has a record of 113  on the horse, takes the ride. It might be they are just sending him down with Spa's Dancer for the day out, but the fact that this jockey turns up for the one ride caught my attention and in a poor contest, he is worth supporting to minimum stakes at the prices.

Profit & loss: day: +29.50 / month: +13.50 / year: +27.70

Tuesday 4th March 2014

Just one selection for Tuesday.

3.40 Southwell Warfare 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Mondlight looks short enough in a handicap here for a horse who only made his debut as a four year old and might not take his racing as easily as visual evidence would lead us to believe. Tatting and Greyfriarschorista look handicapped up to their best, and Karaka Jack hasn't raced on this surface in over four years. As a result I'm inclined to take a chance on something at a price here, and Warfare fits that bill.

The selection is a five year old who had his first start on this surface in January, with a second start around a week later, and he impressed with how he travelled on the fibresand surface on both of those starts. They were decent contests, but what struck me was how weakly the horse finished having travelled so strongly into contention on that second run. This might be a pattern that repeats itself, but I am inclined to give the horse the benefit of the doubt because it was only his second start since May 2013 (may well have bounced too). The figures he posted make him look well handicapped having been dropped 2lb, and if his finishing effort is stronger he can get involved in the finish here. Whether he has some breathing issues, or isn't the most resolute, is hard to tell, but a forty day break will have done him no harm and Kevin Ryans horses are going better now than at any other point during the all weather season. All in all I think 16/1 represents really good each-way value for an owner who has a history of winners at this track.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -16.00 / year: -1.80

Saturday 1st March 2014

A nice big priced winner yesterday saw us end the month in style. I thought we were a little unlucky with the evening selections, who both failed to get a good position - even after we called the ridiculously short priced favourite perfectly - he was eventually unplaced.

Two races of interest for this afternoon - please note we have no selections for tomorrow, Sunday.

1.40 Lingfield Renoir's Lady 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Totesport, Betfred, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)

This is another poor enough contest and I think those at the head of the market have been priced up based on jockey bookings rather than anything they've done on the track recently. I am inclined to take a chance here on Renoir's Lady, who is a consistent enough mare on her day, having finished in the first three seven times in twenty four starts. She was entitled to need her first two runs of the year, and she ran ok without threatening in two Kempton handicaps. She was tenderly handled on both occasions and never really asked to get involved. She has dropped to a very fair mark today and if there is a bit of pace in this contest, I can see her being involved in the finish. The standard is rock bottom and the booking of George Baker catches the eye. In addition, the stable had a sprinter go very close to winning at Kempton the other day having run moderately on his last two runs, and it may be the stables horses are beginning to fire. If the selection can improve just a little on her previous runs, she will go close and at double figures the chance is well worth taking.

3.30 Doncaster 

Court By Surprise 3pts win @ 6/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Wayward Prince 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Court By Surprise should like the ground here and is taken to resume winning ways under Barry Geraghty. The selection has some really decent course form to his name, and he might just have a class edge over his rivals today. He handed a nose beating to Night In Milan at this track last year, giving him 10lb in the process, and he reopposes that rival off much better terms this afternoon (gets 2lb). Emma Lavelle's yard have recently come out of a mid winter slump, and I am quite sure this has been the selection's target for some time.

At a bigger price, the top weight Wayward Prince makes appeal and is worth backing each-way and win. He needs to go left handed on a flat track, and probably prefers good ground. He also seems to go well after a break, and he should be nice and fresh having skipped any mid winter target which might have bottomed him for the year. He is another who I think has been aimed at this race for a while, and he has dropped to a fair handicap mark of OR150 which I think he can win off. He has a course win over hurdles to his name, and his neck defeat to Harry Topper in the Charlie Hall off unfavourable terms (gave that rival 4lb) is the best form in this race by some way. As such, he makes plenty of appeal at the prices.

Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: -11.00 / year: +3.20

Friday 28th February 2014

One race of interest this evening.

8.05 Wolverhampton

Elualla 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 50/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed, 40/1 Bet Victor, Ladbrokes, Betfair Sportsbook, independents, guaranteed)

Krackerjill 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, Coral, guaranteed)

Desert Colours has been a big gamble today, but the fact is he didn't show much bar a bit of early toe at Lingfield last time out and I think it's debatable whether his jockey will have come to Wolves tonight just to ride him (Jamie Spencer has a good book of rides elsewhere on the card). It might be connections have hidden him well, but there's a fair chance this gamble is just public money and at 7/2 there's no way I'd back him. The rest of these have only moderate form to their name and the fact that Biscuiteer is 11/4 fav tells its own story. I can see reasons why many of these are up against it tonight and as a result I think there might just be a surprise result. I'm going to support two fillies to relatively small stakes as a result.

Ellualla for my mind achieved more than Desert Colours on her last start. She is by Elusive City, whose progeny have a 15% strike rate on polytrack versus 11% on turf, with a 1.05 a/e ratio versus 0.88 for turf suggesting his progeny are much better value on the artificial surface. Indeed, the selection travelled really well all the way into the home straight, and had no problem sitting on the pace. Fitness probably became an issue and she faded tamely enough in the straight. However, that was her first run in four and a half months, and she was entitled to need it. She has had 46 days off since, and you would imagine she has either had some sort of hold up, or has been galloping away getting race fit. If it's the latter, she is in no way a 40/1 shot tonight, particularly as her run style is likely to suit the track.

Krackerjill is also added. If she could get anywhere near the form of her debut second in a race that worked out really well, she would win this with something to spare. However, she hasn't looked straightforward since then and it may be she hasn't really trained on. However, she too was entitled to need her first few runs of the year after a break, and she has been noted travelling strongly on a couple of occasions, including last time out when she blew the turn at Lingfield. The replacement of the apprentice riders who have been steering of late with David Probert, and the application of first time cheekpieces to help her focus are both particularly noteworthy.

Both horses have a wide draw to overcome, but that is very definitely factored into the prices and at the odds, both are far too big in what amounts to a very moderate contest that won't take much winning.

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Afternoon bet:

Not a good day yesterday, with two of our three selections finishing third.

One selection for this afternoon, and a possible evening bet - details on that before 5.00pm either way.

2.30 Lingfield Highfields Dancer 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally guaranteed) - WON

This is a fairly poor maiden, made up mostly of flat horses who are struggling to get their heads in front.The 7/4 (best price) favourite Conserve has had enough chances already, and I just think the three market principals set a low enough standard that their might be a surprise. Highfields Dancer is selected at a price. He is by a sire, Silver Patriarch, whose progeny have had some success on this surface (remember Party Boss?) and he travelled really well on his first attempt on it at Kempton in a jumper's bumper last time out. Ultimately he faded out of contention, but he was bang there until the two furlong pole and he was probably entitled to need his first run in almost seven months. His profile comes with negatives - he did drop back fairly quickly at the end of the Kempton race, and he is a six year old with just two career starts behind him indicating he may have been difficult to train - but they are factored into his price. The booking of the excellent George Baker is a positive, though, as is the fact that his dam was an equitrack winner over ten furlongs. He might just travel better than most of his rivals around this sharp track, and at the prices he looks decent each-way value.

Profit & loss: day: +48.40 / month: +28.40 / year: +14.20

Thursday 27th February 2014

A nice winner and each-way second last night.

Today is another busy one, with three selections.

1pt e/w double Staff Sergeant / Polydamos, 7/2 / 7/2 (Skybet, Stan James, Betpack, Skybet.com, guaranteed)

3.20 Southwell Staff Sergeant 4pts win @ 7/2 (Generally guaranteed)

Staff Sergeant faces Gogeo on identical terms to the last time they met four weeks ago, and on the face of it would have it to do to revise placings. However, I do make the race between the pair of them and it is possible to make a case for Michael Appleby's horse. His last run wouldn't have been the first time the selection has slightly underperformed when turned out relatively quickly, and a ten day break might not be enough for him to show his best these days. He can take a bit of a hold and horses like that will tend to throw in the odd bad run, and the presence of Summerfree pressuring him up front probably didn't help his cause last time either. A four week break should have him nice and fresh this afternoon and I expect him to find more down the straight. Gogeo has been impressive on both his last two starts, however I think Paddy Brennan may have been hanging on to less than it seemed when he won last time out, and the selection hung to the far rail (often the sign of a tiring horse) and missed an intended engagement the next day. Given their relative preparations and the prices, Staff Sergeant is selected and included in an each-way double.

4.20 Southwell Luv U Honey 3pts win @ 12/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed, 11/1 generally guaranteed)

I have recently alluded to the fact that Brian Baugh tends to have his horses fit after a break, and that the stable's horses are in fine form at present. This is a really poor maiden, but Luv U Honey has plenty of fibresand influence in her pedigree and if she is ready to run here, she could take the beating. She was with Jo Hughes, disappointing on her debut when sent off 14/1 for a good early season Kempton maiden. she was clueless, and hasn't been seen since but she did look a nice size of a horse with a bit of scope. This trainer is canny, and I would suggest he has probably taken her to Southwell for a gallop. Some of her siblings are quite highly rated, and she wouldn't need to be anything out of the ordinary here. This is a bit of a win-or-bust type of bet, so I'm happy to have a small enough stake win only despite the double figure price.

6.00 Kempton Polydamos 4pts win @ 7/2 (Generally guaranteed)

Polydamos is a bit of a rogue, often travelling really well and finding little off the bridle, but he is dropped back to a mile this evening and it is his first chance to race with at the trip with the assistance of a visor. He has run right up to his best recent form in the headgear on his last two starts and has probably been equal parts unlucky and rogueish, rather than plain not bothered winning. Luke Morris is reunited with the selection this evening and he will know full well the horse needs producing as late as possible. He doesn't look the most difficult of this type of horse I've seen in recent years - he was in front plenty long enough on both his last two starts - and he is given the benefit of the doubt in another poor contest this evening. With the right ride and luck in running, he should travel all over these and assert himself late on. I make him more like 5/2 than his current price and I wouldn't be surprised to see him supported on course. We will include him in an each-way double with Staff Sergeant.

Profit & loss: day: -13.00 / month: -20.00 / year: -34.20

Wednesday 26th February 2014

Scamperdale grabbed us some place money yesterday and the 16/1 looked big with the S.P. 10/1. The first three pulled clear and the form, relative to the low grade, looks fair.

I hinted earlier that this evening could be busy, and indeed it is. We have three selections.

5.50 Kempton Crystalized 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Skybet, Coral, William Hill, Independents, guaranteed)

Crystalized took some support this morning from around 20/1 in places to her current price. That doesn't take much at all in a race like this, and I think there's a fair chance she will drift out a little come the off given the shape of this market. The selection represents the Dean Ivory stable, who are a force to be reckoned with at this track in particular, and Dean has made a name for himself in recent years with improving sprinters. Crystalized is an inexperienced filly so this is a risky enough bet, but she travelled really well on her first polytrack start at Lingfield last month, eventually blowing the turn and failing to get involved at the business end of the race. She looks better than an OR55 horse, though, and this looks a fairly average event for her to take her chance in. I don't think the favourite Global Explorer is one of Stuart Williams' best sprinters, and he looks well worth taking on at the prices. Crystalized will need to have come on for that Lingfield run, but she is very much entitled too and she is well drawn in stall six to get early cover and make a challenge in the longer Kempton straight.

6.50 Kempton Watt Broderick 5pts win @ 7/2 (Generally guaranteed) - WON

The notable aspect of Watt Broderick's recent "Bumpers For Jumpers" runner up spot was the fact that he settled so well off such a crawl of a pace. This is something the five year old son of Hawk Wing has failed to do in the past to his cost. He returns to Kempton under the flat code today and if anything, the stronger racing pace over twelve furlongs will play right into his hands. He pulled clear in that bumper with a horse of Brian Ellisons who is rated in the high seventies on the flat, and I think he looks really well handicapped here off OR63 given he is likely to settle tonight. The booking of Graham Lee is a positive and at 7/2, he is probably three quarters of a point too big in my book.

7.20 Kempton Bobby Benton 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 6/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, Coral, William Hill, guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

Arabella won us some place money last time out when she finished second at 20/1, and Hurricane Harry looked less than straightforward when we supported him last time out at Lingfield, so I'd like to think I have a good handle on this maiden event. The favourite looks the most likely winner, but he didn't look entirely straightforward at Lingfield (hung in the closing stages, although he was entitled to be green on his debut). At the prices I'd like to take him on each-way with Bobby Benton, who created a really good impression in Hurricane Harry's Lingfield race. He was caught wide for most of the contest, but stayed on really well to finish a close second, doing all his best work at the finish. I think Kempton's long straight will suit him well and the booking of Luke Morris catches my eye. The selection is a brother to Grendisar, and will want further in time, but if he can get to the front he might be hard to pass in the closing stages unless Born In Bombay has really come on for his debut. One is 11/2, the other is Evens, I have the race between them and it looks a no brainer to support Bobby Benton each-way.

Profit & loss: day: +12.90 / month: -7.00 / year: -21.20

Tuesday 25th February 2014

News of another defection from the festival reached us this morning with Cue Card missing his intended engagement in the Gold Cup. I don't think he'd have won, but his participation would have added spice to the occasion (and perhaps pace to the race?); here's hoping he returns soon.

One race of interest on a fairly moderate afternoon.

2.00 Lingfield

Dreaming Again 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 11/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed) 

Scamperdale 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Bet Victor, Paddy Power, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

An interesting betting shape to this race with Stanlow very short at 11/8 fav, and those immediately in behind him with questions to answer. Standing Strong has a "2" beside his name, but that was in a dire contest run at a crawl where he was well positioned throughout and still failed to win. Indian Violet had excuses at Kempton but hasn't looked like troubling the judge and the Jim Crowley booking seems to have attracted backers. Dazzling Valentine looks out of form.

Dreaming Again looks worthy of support having run well in a fairly well contested race over a mile here in January. He was held up in rear throughout, and finished fast to claim sixth in a bunch finish, doing his best work at the finish. He is ridden by a 7lb claimer, so we can't expect miracles in terms of positioning and a finishing drive, but the selection does seem to be on the improve and there is stamina on the dam's side of his pedigree which suggests the step up to today's ten furlong trip should benefit him. He is a half brother to Maedream, who picked up a two mile contest here in 2011 and improved to a peak rating of OR71. The selection is a bit more speedily bred but ten furlongs looks well within his compass, and having been hampered early on at Kempton last time he is given another chance today at a track which I think might suit him better.

Scamperdale is our second selection against the favourite. Brian Baugh's horses are running really well, in fact better than at any point over the course of the last eighteen months, and he is a dab hand with keeping these older horses sweet. The selection has a habit of popping up at big prices, and won at 20/1 over this course and distance last March. He saves his best for this track these days and ran well here as recently as October, suggesting he retains at least some of the old ability. This is his time of year, and if he is to pick up a race this season it might be this one - the program book won't have many potentially weaker contests over course and distance. 16/1 is too big, and we'll back the pair to save most of our stake should one of them run into a place.

Profit & loss: day: -1.80 / month: -19.90 / year: -34.10

Monday 24th February 2014

The news that Sprinter Sacre misses the Champion Chase dominated headlines over the weekend, and has blown that race wide open in terms of betting. It also affects the Ryanair chase, which is obviously less prestigious and will no doubt lose a few participants with the likes of Benefficient likely to drop back in trip to contest the more noteworthy race. Just over two weeks to the festival now and we're all looking forward to it here.

Monday's Wolverhampton card looks tricky enough, and we'll have just one bet up at Musselburgh.

3.20 Musselburgh Dante's Frolic 5pts win @ 10/3 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 3/1 generally guaranteed)

Michael Smith is a trainer I really respect, and despite a recent quiet spell without any runners he has had a fine season so far, with the likes of Imperial Vic, Masterleaderman and Native Spa helping the stable's profile no end. Dante's Frolic is a six year old mare who handles soft ground well, and it is interesting she is the only one of four Smith representatives who hasn't been pulled out following heavy overnight rain at Musselburgh. She won her bumper at Ayr impressively in February 2012, adding a hurdle success at Catterick in February 2013. Her seasonal debut at Kelso in December was full of promise, she travelled well into the contest and only gave best on the stamina sapping run to the line, arguably better than the bare result. That race has worked out well, and she is of interest off 1lb lower in a weaker contest this afternoon. I don't really fancy any of the outsiders and Bellgrove looks a good ground horse to me. This might end up a match with the McCain runner Cool Sky, and given that I make them hard to split, I think the 3/1+ on the selection represents really good value. I would suggest she is the more proven of the pair on soft ground. The icing on the cake is the fact that she seems to routinely come to hand at this time of year, always something worth looking out for with fillies and mares, and Dante's Frolic gets the nod as a result.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -18.10 / year: -32.30

Saturday 22nd February 2014

Some excellent racing today and two races of interest for us.

2.15 Lingfield

Chevise 1pt each-way @ 20/1 (Bet Victor, William Hill, guaranteed, 18/1 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

My Kingdom 1pt each-way @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

This sprint series final is a great betting race, because everything's trying and you can judge the race completely on its merits, with most of the horses taking part having been aimed at the contest for at least part of the winter. I think well handicapped but battle hardened types tend to do better than horses with sexier profiles, and in a race with at least five recognised hold up horses including the top four in the betting, I'm keen to look for something that can take a more prominent sit mid race. 

The booking of the excellent Luke Morris on Chevise certainly takes the eye, and this game mare seems to have been laid out for the race by her connections. She is very honest and has an excellent record on the surface. There is a possibility that something progressive will prove too strong for her, but they'll need to put their heads down to get past Chevise if she hits the front because she's a real trier. She is quite well handicapped on her best form and is too big at 18/1+.

Stuart Williams usually aims a couple of horses at this, but I don't think the well named Welease Bwian is the heartiest in a finish, and I'm keen to oppose him. He has finished second eleven times in his career and My Kingdom looks a better bet at 12/1+ under Andrea Atzeni. He wears a second time visor, having defeated Mac's Power over course and distance in the headgear last time out. If he can repeat that form (not guaranteed with these King's Best progeny in headgear) I think he has a good chance - he is also well handicapped and could have this run to suit.

3.50 Kempton 

Baile Anrai 1pt each-way @ 16/1 / 14/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

What's Happening 1pt each-way @ 20/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Baile Anrai looks to be belatedly getting it together based on his last two starts, and in a race which has cut up and lacks real class candidates, he gets the nod at a decent price. The selection followed up a Leicester win with a good run behind The Rainbow Hunter at Doncaster on bottomless ground, the pair clear of Unioniste. Blinkers appear to have made a difference this season and this ten year old might be better handicapped than he looks at first glance. He travels well through his races and the sharp right handed course will be right up his street.

What's Happening is another who enjoys going right handed. Three of his four wins under rules have come on right handed tracks, and his chase record going in this direction reads 112. His recent Leicester second has been franked by the winner, and the selection looks unexposed after just five chase starts. Given that connections won this race twice with Nacarat, I would suggest they'd like to continue the tradition and the horse appears to have been laid out for the race. The stable are in the best form they've been in all season, and Paddy Brennan takes the ride. 20/1 is too big.

Profit & loss: day: -12.00 / month: -13.10 / year: -27.30

Friday 21st February 2014

Two selections for Wolverhampton tonight.

1pt each-way double on tonight's selections, 6/1 and 11/2 with Bet Victor, Coral (guaranteed).

6.30 Wolverhampton West Coast Dream 4pts win @ 6/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 11/2 generally guaranteed)

An interesting sprint. If Megaleka does what she did last time, she will be hard to beat tonight but the problem I have with her is that she has done the same twice in the past and failed to follow up. She also beat very little last time and might be worth taking on in this better contest. West Coast Dream perhaps needs a little explaining. He is 0/9 on the all weather but most of those contests were far superior to the test he faces tonight, and he has posted some very good ratings on the surface. He drops to 0-65 for the first time in a long time, and the blinkers experiment has been discontinued, which I expect to help him. His stable have hit some form since his previous run, and I expect him to put in his best run of the all weather season so far tonight. We'll take him at a fair looking 11/2+, and in an each-way double.

7.00 Wolverhampton Pinotage 4pts win @ 5/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Pinotage is really consistent on Polytrack and the return to his favourite surface saw an upturn in his fortunes last time out. I think he achieved more in pulling clear with Singzak, five lengths ahead of Lacey, than Waving has done in winning the last twice and at the prices I think he is good value to defeat that rival. There might be a lurker or two in here, but this horse is both well handicapped and proven in the conditions; as a result he gets the nod and I do think he'll go off shorter.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: -1.10 / year: -14.30

Thursday 20th February 2014

One for this evening.

8.00 Wolverhampton Tom Mann 5pts win @ 9/2 (Totesport, Betfred, guaranteed, 9/2 fixed price with various independents, 4/1 Skybet, guaranteed)

This is as bad a maiden as I have seen, and an ideal place to start of a decent three year old. The unraced Tom Mann is too tempting not to back here, because there is very little in the way of opposition from anything at prices. This should be won by something in the top four of the market, but I think Mick Channon's Gratzie might have been flattered by her debut run and she more or less went backwards after that. Unless there was a problem, she is worth opposing at the prices and she didn't look too keen to actually pass horses anyway. Jolly Red Jeanz doesn't look up to winning a maiden in my view, and the step up two furlongs in trip looks a hopeful punt. That leaves the first time out Guest filly, but Guest had a couple of good fillies win recently and sent out a more average one at Kempton last night. I think tonight's entry might be in the latter category and she hasn't been well backed. David Barron has a fine 19% strike rate with three year olds here, and I'm interested enough in this one to back it first time out.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +8.90 / year: -4.30

Wednesday 19th February 2014

Two selections for this evening.

7.25 Kempton Jay Bee Blue 5pts win @ 8/1 (Generally guaranteed)

This is a really good sprint.Jay Bee Blue is a strong travelling horse whose best form is arguably his course and distance win over Emkanaat last autumn. He has continued to improve since then, and I think the return to his ideal conditions can see him get his head in front off a mark of OR80 this evening. He ran really well behind Stonefield Flyer over seven furlongs last time out, but I think seven stretches him and his future lies as a sprinter. This looks likely to be run at a decent enough pace, and I'm happy enough with his draw in stall eight which will allow Joe Fanning to tuck him in. From there it is a matter of luck in running, but at the prices I think he is excellent value and worth backing win only.

8.25 Kempton Arabella 2pts each-way @ 20/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP - E/W 2nd

This selection comes with its negatives, but they are most definitely factored into the price. Arabella made a really eye catching debut to my mind, staying on very well and looking to act really well on the polytrack surface once she got the hang of things, having been really green early on. Footage from after the race shows her on the heels of the eventual winner and second not far after the line, which would suggest she ran on strongly once she grasped what was required. She wasn't put under much pressure, and would not have enjoyed the run of the race because they didn't go very quick. She could be a handicap project, but tonight's task is not insurmountable and if she is trying, and if she comes on mentally for her first run, she is no 20/1 shot. She'll need to break faster and travel better on the bridle early on, but usually horses learn to do that early enough and although she is a four year old only having her second career start, she is well related and could cause a minor upset here.

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Afternoon bet:

One race of interest for Wednesday afternoon.

3.45 Ludlow

1pt win @ Betfair SP on each of: Canadian Diamond, Miss Tique, Grams And Ounces, Thinger Licht.

Baltimore Rock could sweep this lot aside and prove himself a progressive hurdler, but he hasn't looked straightforward to me on his last two starts and he took quite a while to find a chance of gear at Wincanton. I actually don't think Ludlow will suit him. Hold Court and Whispering Harry look short enough to me too, and with the favourite likely to be well supported, I'm going to take a chance on an upset. Both Canadian Diamond and Grams And Ounces are course and distance winners. Miss Tique looks unexposed and represents top connections, and Thinger Licht is very well handicapped if he rediscovers any sort of form. Four points are outlayed with one on each selection at Betfair SP, and for a relatively small outlay we have the chance of a big priced winner if the favourite fails to fire.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +13.90 / year: +0.70