8.05 Wolverhampton
Elualla 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 50/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed, 40/1 Bet Victor, Ladbrokes, Betfair Sportsbook, independents, guaranteed)
Krackerjill 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, Coral, guaranteed)
Desert Colours has been a big gamble today, but the fact is he didn't show much bar a bit of early toe at Lingfield last time out and I think it's debatable whether his jockey will have come to Wolves tonight just to ride him (Jamie Spencer has a good book of rides elsewhere on the card). It might be connections have hidden him well, but there's a fair chance this gamble is just public money and at 7/2 there's no way I'd back him. The rest of these have only moderate form to their name and the fact that Biscuiteer is 11/4 fav tells its own story. I can see reasons why many of these are up against it tonight and as a result I think there might just be a surprise result. I'm going to support two fillies to relatively small stakes as a result.
Ellualla for my mind achieved more than Desert Colours on her last start. She is by Elusive City, whose progeny have a 15% strike rate on polytrack versus 11% on turf, with a 1.05 a/e ratio versus 0.88 for turf suggesting his progeny are much better value on the artificial surface. Indeed, the selection travelled really well all the way into the home straight, and had no problem sitting on the pace. Fitness probably became an issue and she faded tamely enough in the straight. However, that was her first run in four and a half months, and she was entitled to need it. She has had 46 days off since, and you would imagine she has either had some sort of hold up, or has been galloping away getting race fit. If it's the latter, she is in no way a 40/1 shot tonight, particularly as her run style is likely to suit the track.
Krackerjill is also added. If she could get anywhere near the form of her debut second in a race that worked out really well, she would win this with something to spare. However, she hasn't looked straightforward since then and it may be she hasn't really trained on. However, she too was entitled to need her first few runs of the year after a break, and she has been noted travelling strongly on a couple of occasions, including last time out when she blew the turn at Lingfield. The replacement of the apprentice riders who have been steering of late with David Probert, and the application of first time cheekpieces to help her focus are both particularly noteworthy.
Both horses have a wide draw to overcome, but that is very definitely factored into the prices and at the odds, both are far too big in what amounts to a very moderate contest that won't take much winning.
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Afternoon bet:
Not a good day yesterday, with two of our three selections finishing third.
One selection for this afternoon, and a possible evening bet - details on that before 5.00pm either way.
2.30 Lingfield Highfields Dancer 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally guaranteed) - WON
This is a fairly poor maiden, made up mostly of flat horses who are struggling to get their heads in front.The 7/4 (best price) favourite Conserve has had enough chances already, and I just think the three market principals set a low enough standard that their might be a surprise. Highfields Dancer is selected at a price. He is by a sire, Silver Patriarch, whose progeny have had some success on this surface (remember Party Boss?) and he travelled really well on his first attempt on it at Kempton in a jumper's bumper last time out. Ultimately he faded out of contention, but he was bang there until the two furlong pole and he was probably entitled to need his first run in almost seven months. His profile comes with negatives - he did drop back fairly quickly at the end of the Kempton race, and he is a six year old with just two career starts behind him indicating he may have been difficult to train - but they are factored into his price. The booking of the excellent George Baker is a positive, though, as is the fact that his dam was an equitrack winner over ten furlongs. He might just travel better than most of his rivals around this sharp track, and at the prices he looks decent each-way value.
Profit & loss: day: +48.40 / month: +28.40 / year: +14.20
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