Friday 7th March 2014

We almost landed another big gamble with Shrewd Bob backed from 22/1 in a place down to 5/1 before the off last night, with 10c/15c rule 4 included depending where you backed him. The selection did well to finish second but didn't get the best of rides - the race was lost when Atzeni allowed a no hoper to take his ground inside the first furlong and got stuck behind him. Still, we picked up each-way money with second place.

One selection for this evening. It's pretty much all roads lead to Cheltenham now, and at this stage it doesn't look like we'll be betting tomorrow. It's not usually a day's racing I get too involved in and my focus will be on Prestbury Park next week from tomorrow.

8.30 Wolverhampton Helmsley Flyer 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 7/1 (Generally guaranteed) - WON

Helmsley Flyer looks a big enough price for a horse who won over course and distance two starts ago, and may not have stayed the extra two furlongs last time out. He holds Grandiloquent even on that form, and I am struggling to see why he is 7/1 and that rival 7/2. The selection probably needs to improve to win this, but I don't think Pinotage really looked like winning last time out and he might be a run or two off his peak yet. David O'Meara has a habit of improving horses and I doubt this four year old has stopped improving after just the one win. He travelled really well behind the pacesetters that day he won, and I think he might have this run to suit him. A potential danger would be a back to form No Compromise, but she has shown very little in the last year. This might well be decided by who turns up in the best form on the night / who gets the best ride, and with a tight contest like that I see no reason for the selection to be the price he is - the market could well be more congested before the off and I make the selection more like a 9/2 shot.  We'll play each-way and win.

Profit & loss: day: +24.50 / month: +34.60 / year: +48.80