A nice big priced winner yesterday saw us end the month in style. I thought we were a little unlucky with the evening selections, who both failed to get a good position - even after we called the ridiculously short priced favourite perfectly - he was eventually unplaced.
Two races of interest for this afternoon - please note we have no selections for tomorrow, Sunday.
1.40 Lingfield Renoir's Lady 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Totesport, Betfred, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)
This is another poor enough contest and I think those at the head of the market have been priced up based on jockey bookings rather than anything they've done on the track recently. I am inclined to take a chance here on Renoir's Lady, who is a consistent enough mare on her day, having finished in the first three seven times in twenty four starts. She was entitled to need her first two runs of the year, and she ran ok without threatening in two Kempton handicaps. She was tenderly handled on both occasions and never really asked to get involved. She has dropped to a very fair mark today and if there is a bit of pace in this contest, I can see her being involved in the finish. The standard is rock bottom and the booking of George Baker catches the eye. In addition, the stable had a sprinter go very close to winning at Kempton the other day having run moderately on his last two runs, and it may be the stables horses are beginning to fire. If the selection can improve just a little on her previous runs, she will go close and at double figures the chance is well worth taking.
3.30 Doncaster
Court By Surprise 3pts win @ 6/1 (Generally guaranteed)
Wayward Prince 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Generally guaranteed)
Court By Surprise should like the ground here and is taken to resume winning ways under Barry Geraghty. The selection has some really decent course form to his name, and he might just have a class edge over his rivals today. He handed a nose beating to Night In Milan at this track last year, giving him 10lb in the process, and he reopposes that rival off much better terms this afternoon (gets 2lb). Emma Lavelle's yard have recently come out of a mid winter slump, and I am quite sure this has been the selection's target for some time.
At a bigger price, the top weight Wayward Prince makes appeal and is worth backing each-way and win. He needs to go left handed on a flat track, and probably prefers good ground. He also seems to go well after a break, and he should be nice and fresh having skipped any mid winter target which might have bottomed him for the year. He is another who I think has been aimed at this race for a while, and he has dropped to a fair handicap mark of OR150 which I think he can win off. He has a course win over hurdles to his name, and his neck defeat to Harry Topper in the Charlie Hall off unfavourable terms (gave that rival 4lb) is the best form in this race by some way. As such, he makes plenty of appeal at the prices.
Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: -11.00 / year: +3.20
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