2.15 Lingfield
Chevise 1pt each-way @ 20/1 (Bet Victor, William Hill, guaranteed, 18/1 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP
My Kingdom 1pt each-way @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP
This sprint series final is a great betting race, because everything's trying and you can judge the race completely on its merits, with most of the horses taking part having been aimed at the contest for at least part of the winter. I think well handicapped but battle hardened types tend to do better than horses with sexier profiles, and in a race with at least five recognised hold up horses including the top four in the betting, I'm keen to look for something that can take a more prominent sit mid race.
The booking of the excellent Luke Morris on Chevise certainly takes the eye, and this game mare seems to have been laid out for the race by her connections. She is very honest and has an excellent record on the surface. There is a possibility that something progressive will prove too strong for her, but they'll need to put their heads down to get past Chevise if she hits the front because she's a real trier. She is quite well handicapped on her best form and is too big at 18/1+.
Stuart Williams usually aims a couple of horses at this, but I don't think the well named Welease Bwian is the heartiest in a finish, and I'm keen to oppose him. He has finished second eleven times in his career and My Kingdom looks a better bet at 12/1+ under Andrea Atzeni. He wears a second time visor, having defeated Mac's Power over course and distance in the headgear last time out. If he can repeat that form (not guaranteed with these King's Best progeny in headgear) I think he has a good chance - he is also well handicapped and could have this run to suit.
3.50 Kempton
Baile Anrai 1pt each-way @ 16/1 / 14/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP
What's Happening 1pt each-way @ 20/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP
Baile Anrai looks to be belatedly getting it together based on his last two starts, and in a race which has cut up and lacks real class candidates, he gets the nod at a decent price. The selection followed up a Leicester win with a good run behind The Rainbow Hunter at Doncaster on bottomless ground, the pair clear of Unioniste. Blinkers appear to have made a difference this season and this ten year old might be better handicapped than he looks at first glance. He travels well through his races and the sharp right handed course will be right up his street.
What's Happening is another who enjoys going right handed. Three of his four wins under rules have come on right handed tracks, and his chase record going in this direction reads 112. His recent Leicester second has been franked by the winner, and the selection looks unexposed after just five chase starts. Given that connections won this race twice with Nacarat, I would suggest they'd like to continue the tradition and the horse appears to have been laid out for the race. The stable are in the best form they've been in all season, and Paddy Brennan takes the ride. 20/1 is too big.
Profit & loss: day: -12.00 / month: -13.10 / year: -27.30
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