Today is another busy one, with three selections.
1pt e/w double Staff Sergeant / Polydamos, 7/2 / 7/2 (Skybet, Stan James, Betpack, Skybet.com, guaranteed)
3.20 Southwell Staff Sergeant 4pts win @ 7/2 (Generally guaranteed)
Staff Sergeant faces Gogeo on identical terms to the last time they met four weeks ago, and on the face of it would have it to do to revise placings. However, I do make the race between the pair of them and it is possible to make a case for Michael Appleby's horse. His last run wouldn't have been the first time the selection has slightly underperformed when turned out relatively quickly, and a ten day break might not be enough for him to show his best these days. He can take a bit of a hold and horses like that will tend to throw in the odd bad run, and the presence of Summerfree pressuring him up front probably didn't help his cause last time either. A four week break should have him nice and fresh this afternoon and I expect him to find more down the straight. Gogeo has been impressive on both his last two starts, however I think Paddy Brennan may have been hanging on to less than it seemed when he won last time out, and the selection hung to the far rail (often the sign of a tiring horse) and missed an intended engagement the next day. Given their relative preparations and the prices, Staff Sergeant is selected and included in an each-way double.
4.20 Southwell Luv U Honey 3pts win @ 12/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed, 11/1 generally guaranteed)
I have recently alluded to the fact that Brian Baugh tends to have his horses fit after a break, and that the stable's horses are in fine form at present. This is a really poor maiden, but Luv U Honey has plenty of fibresand influence in her pedigree and if she is ready to run here, she could take the beating. She was with Jo Hughes, disappointing on her debut when sent off 14/1 for a good early season Kempton maiden. she was clueless, and hasn't been seen since but she did look a nice size of a horse with a bit of scope. This trainer is canny, and I would suggest he has probably taken her to Southwell for a gallop. Some of her siblings are quite highly rated, and she wouldn't need to be anything out of the ordinary here. This is a bit of a win-or-bust type of bet, so I'm happy to have a small enough stake win only despite the double figure price.
6.00 Kempton Polydamos 4pts win @ 7/2 (Generally guaranteed)
Polydamos is a bit of a rogue, often travelling really well and finding little off the bridle, but he is dropped back to a mile this evening and it is his first chance to race with at the trip with the assistance of a visor. He has run right up to his best recent form in the headgear on his last two starts and has probably been equal parts unlucky and rogueish, rather than plain not bothered winning. Luke Morris is reunited with the selection this evening and he will know full well the horse needs producing as late as possible. He doesn't look the most difficult of this type of horse I've seen in recent years - he was in front plenty long enough on both his last two starts - and he is given the benefit of the doubt in another poor contest this evening. With the right ride and luck in running, he should travel all over these and assert himself late on. I make him more like 5/2 than his current price and I wouldn't be surprised to see him supported on course. We will include him in an each-way double with Staff Sergeant.
Profit & loss: day: -13.00 / month: -20.00 / year: -34.20
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