One for this evening.
7.25 Kempton Shrewd Bob 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 20/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Bet Victor, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd 10c rule 4
This is a little bit "boom or bust", so I've weighted the stake towards the win part of the bet. Firstly to explain that bookmakers have been very wary of the favourite Bereka, who was well backed this morning by punters who put 2 + 2 together and came up with two ex-Curley horses out and two Tate horses (Tate worked with A.P. Stringer, a Curley associate, last year). The favourite is more or less defensively priced as a result and I'm happy to take her on because her form doesn't look that great, and you don't get rich backing first time back fillies against colts in sprint maidens.
Shrewd Bob is speculative, but there are reasons to back him at these big prices. He cost €20,000 so wasn't cheap for Robert Eddery (sales price quadrupled as a yearling) and it is fair to assume he showed some ability at home given he was sent off 7/4 on his debut, admittedly in a poor enough maiden. He is by Whipper, however, and fast ground would definitely not have suited this horse, who has a really exaggerated action. Whipper's progeny go really well on soft ground. He hinted at ability a few times before being put away, and I find it interesting connections have left him as a colt. He looked like he had filling out to do last year and it may be he will have bulked up during his six month hiatus. He didn't really see out his races last year, and he was over keen (may have had breathing problems too) but those issues can be worked on and if he comes back as a more mature horse, he is no 16/1 shot in this field. Andrea Atzeni rode him on his debut, and he rides tonight. He has been awarded a handicap mark of OR55, so it is interesting connections are bothering with maidens at all. He is entered in another such contest at Southwell in a few days and it looks a little bit like a plan to me. We might be barking completely up the wrong tree, but if the pieces fall into place here the selection could outrun a very big price.
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Afternoon bet:
Rebellious Guest won handsomely last night and is now on course for the Winter Derby. 10/1 and 11/1 in a place was a ridiculous price.
One selection for this afternoon, and a possible evening bet to follow at 5.00pm.
3.55 Southwell Repetition 5pts win @ 11/2 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 5/1 Coral, guaranteed, 9/2 generally guaranteed)
We have a fair handle on this form as regular supporters of Imaginary World, who has won twice for us and landed us place money once. I think she'll be slightly outclassed this afternoon by Repetition, who looks very progressive on this surface. We have to excuse one bad run, but clients will know that's something I'm happy to do, particularly if a horse is turned out quickly afterwards, suggesting there is no physical problem. In addition, the horse was ridden by an inexperienced apprentice last time and the run might be best forgotten in terms of the form book. Previously, the horse had pulled clear of a very good Southwell yardstick, Abi Scarlet, when finishing second to The Great Gabrial over today's course and distance. This doesn't look as strong a contest. Cape Of Hope isn't proven on the surface, Sofia's Number One has been dropping himself out too many times and looks out of form, and Khajaaly has yet to win here and isn't too resolute in a finish. Alpha Tauri would be the danger for me, but I think Repetition is better handicapped based on his penultimate run. He is given the chance to prove himself still in good heart, and he makes plenty of appeal at 9/2+.
Profit & loss: day: -3.40 / month: +10.10 / year: +24.30
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