Tuesday 25th February 2014

News of another defection from the festival reached us this morning with Cue Card missing his intended engagement in the Gold Cup. I don't think he'd have won, but his participation would have added spice to the occasion (and perhaps pace to the race?); here's hoping he returns soon.

One race of interest on a fairly moderate afternoon.

2.00 Lingfield

Dreaming Again 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 11/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed) 

Scamperdale 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Bet Victor, Paddy Power, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

An interesting betting shape to this race with Stanlow very short at 11/8 fav, and those immediately in behind him with questions to answer. Standing Strong has a "2" beside his name, but that was in a dire contest run at a crawl where he was well positioned throughout and still failed to win. Indian Violet had excuses at Kempton but hasn't looked like troubling the judge and the Jim Crowley booking seems to have attracted backers. Dazzling Valentine looks out of form.

Dreaming Again looks worthy of support having run well in a fairly well contested race over a mile here in January. He was held up in rear throughout, and finished fast to claim sixth in a bunch finish, doing his best work at the finish. He is ridden by a 7lb claimer, so we can't expect miracles in terms of positioning and a finishing drive, but the selection does seem to be on the improve and there is stamina on the dam's side of his pedigree which suggests the step up to today's ten furlong trip should benefit him. He is a half brother to Maedream, who picked up a two mile contest here in 2011 and improved to a peak rating of OR71. The selection is a bit more speedily bred but ten furlongs looks well within his compass, and having been hampered early on at Kempton last time he is given another chance today at a track which I think might suit him better.

Scamperdale is our second selection against the favourite. Brian Baugh's horses are running really well, in fact better than at any point over the course of the last eighteen months, and he is a dab hand with keeping these older horses sweet. The selection has a habit of popping up at big prices, and won at 20/1 over this course and distance last March. He saves his best for this track these days and ran well here as recently as October, suggesting he retains at least some of the old ability. This is his time of year, and if he is to pick up a race this season it might be this one - the program book won't have many potentially weaker contests over course and distance. 16/1 is too big, and we'll back the pair to save most of our stake should one of them run into a place.

Profit & loss: day: -1.80 / month: -19.90 / year: -34.10