7.25 Kempton Jay Bee Blue 5pts win @ 8/1 (Generally guaranteed)
This is a really good sprint.Jay Bee Blue is a strong travelling horse whose best form is arguably his course and distance win over Emkanaat last autumn. He has continued to improve since then, and I think the return to his ideal conditions can see him get his head in front off a mark of OR80 this evening. He ran really well behind Stonefield Flyer over seven furlongs last time out, but I think seven stretches him and his future lies as a sprinter. This looks likely to be run at a decent enough pace, and I'm happy enough with his draw in stall eight which will allow Joe Fanning to tuck him in. From there it is a matter of luck in running, but at the prices I think he is excellent value and worth backing win only.
8.25 Kempton Arabella 2pts each-way @ 20/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP - E/W 2nd
This selection comes with its negatives, but they are most definitely factored into the price. Arabella made a really eye catching debut to my mind, staying on very well and looking to act really well on the polytrack surface once she got the hang of things, having been really green early on. Footage from after the race shows her on the heels of the eventual winner and second not far after the line, which would suggest she ran on strongly once she grasped what was required. She wasn't put under much pressure, and would not have enjoyed the run of the race because they didn't go very quick. She could be a handicap project, but tonight's task is not insurmountable and if she is trying, and if she comes on mentally for her first run, she is no 20/1 shot. She'll need to break faster and travel better on the bridle early on, but usually horses learn to do that early enough and although she is a four year old only having her second career start, she is well related and could cause a minor upset here.
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Afternoon bet:
One race of interest for Wednesday afternoon.
3.45 Ludlow
1pt win @ Betfair SP on each of: Canadian Diamond, Miss Tique, Grams And Ounces, Thinger Licht.
Baltimore Rock could sweep this lot aside and prove himself a progressive hurdler, but he hasn't looked straightforward to me on his last two starts and he took quite a while to find a chance of gear at Wincanton. I actually don't think Ludlow will suit him. Hold Court and Whispering Harry look short enough to me too, and with the favourite likely to be well supported, I'm going to take a chance on an upset. Both Canadian Diamond and Grams And Ounces are course and distance winners. Miss Tique looks unexposed and represents top connections, and Thinger Licht is very well handicapped if he rediscovers any sort of form. Four points are outlayed with one on each selection at Betfair SP, and for a relatively small outlay we have the chance of a big priced winner if the favourite fails to fire.
Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +13.90 / year: +0.70
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