Wednesday 5th March 2014

It's a tricky night to be betting at Kempton but we have two interests to relatively small stakes that look overpriced enough to warrant backing.

6.30 Kempton Rebellious Guest 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 11/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed) - WON

The ten furlongs at Kempton is run on the inside course and is quite a sharp test. Spa's Dancer is drawn in stall one and has Ryan Moore on top, so I think that horse dictates how this race will be run. Ryan knows the horse has never won at this trip, so I expect him to set a steady tempo if possible and he might just get an uncontested lead. In such cases, horses with a bit of speed and class are favoured and I like the look of Rebellious Guest from a wide draw. He looks overpriced at anything in double figures, and he has had a good winter already picking up a couple of handicaps. He didn't get a good ride from Tom Queally last time out and I would hope the jockey is a bit more patient with him this evening instead of sending him five horses wide on the home turn. The trip is a question mark, but I think this horse has loads of class and an entry in the Winter Derby would suggest that sending him over ten furlongs is more than just connections chancing their arm. He looks the call to land a third win of the winter at a nice price.

7.30 Kempton Baan 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 28/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed) 

This is a bad race, and I think the eleven year old Baan has been written off for no good reason. He has been amateur ridden all winter and he tends to struggle to get his head in front under such handling. He had excuses last time out with tack problems during the race, and I think he still has the ability to figure here off a mark of OR57. He ran well around this time last year, and the booking of Rosie Jessop, who claims 3lb and has a record of 113  on the horse, takes the ride. It might be they are just sending him down with Spa's Dancer for the day out, but the fact that this jockey turns up for the one ride caught my attention and in a poor contest, he is worth supporting to minimum stakes at the prices.

Profit & loss: day: +29.50 / month: +13.50 / year: +27.70