Saturday 19th April 2014

A 25/1 winner yesterday, with Alben Star getting up late to land the big sprint at Lingfield, and it was a satisfying victory for us. April has been a good month so far.

Two selections for this afternoon.

1pt each-way double on today's selections, 16/1 and 12/1 generally guaranteed. - E/W place double

3.30 Kempton Santefisio 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 18/1 (Bet 365, Coral, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 3rd @ 20/1

There are fitness questions to be answers for some of the principals here and some of the unexposed horses don't look guaranteed to improve this season. In short I think this could be won by something with proven form, and Santefisio is selected at a big price. The selection goes really well over this course and distance and with Life And Times and Tiger's Tale likely to go forward, there could be enough pace on for the selection's strong travelling style and turn of foot to be suited. He didn't shine in Meydan but ran ok at Wolverhampton last time out, one place ahead of Alben Star, in a race where those held up faced a lot of kickback and ultimately had no chance of winning. The return to his favourite course and distance (bar perhaps Ascot over 7f / 1m on the turf) could see him pop up at a price and he will have no issues over his fitness where others might struggle in the closing stages.

4.35 Kempton Zampa Manos 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed) - WON @ 22/1

This race has been priced up based on potential rather than recent form and it doesn't always work out in favour of potential. Championship is a tempter here but he is stepping up two furlongs in trip and has never raced on the surface, although he could improve markedly for it being by a sire, Exceed and Excel, whose progeny go well here. I'm just not quite sure about him, nor am I sure anything of Ed Dunlop's should be so short in a hot little race like this given the yard haven't hit stride.

A chance is taken on Zampa Manos improving for his seasonal debut. He gave Passing Glance a real race over this course and distance last time out and was ultra game in the finish, when he may not have been suited by racing on the inside. That horse was the only one to give Ertijaal a race over seven furlongs yesterday and the form looks quite strong. There is every chance that Oisin Murphy's mount will get things his own way up front again and, up against rivals who are making seasonal debut in a few cases, they may struggle to peg him back. 12/1 is too big and we'll include our selections in an each-way double.

Profit & loss: day: +103.50 / month: +191.25 / year: +130.00

Friday 18th April 2014

Two cracking cards of racing this afternoon; our focus is Lingfield and it's a busy day for us.

2.55 Lingfield Sir Robert Cheval 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 10/1 (Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Bet Victor, guaranteed, 9/1 generally guaranteed)

Sir Robert Cheval represents a handler whose horses go very well at this track, including in the best quality races here. The selection has only had four career starts to date, and as such I'd be inclined not to get too involved in collateral form reading because it is likely we've yet to see the best of both this horse and some others in the race. Botti reported that the horse needed the run last time out when 2 1/4 lengths behind Ertijaal, and the race didn't really pan out for him either. He is bred for this surface and travels really well on it, and I expect there is improvement to come - this trainer routinely leaves horses short on for their reappearances and is adept at targeting specific races. Ryan Moore is a notable booking and I think at 9/1+ he is very good value against the favourite.

3.30 Lingfield Castilo Del Diablo 5pts win @ 7/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Represents a trainer who does very well with staying types. The selection was ridden with plenty of restraint when fifth behind Litigant over course and distance on his penultimate start, and he never had any chance of getting into the race off a moderate pace. More forceful tactics were employed last time out when they rode him as if stamina was assured, and the selection put his head down and battled heartily to get the win against two good horses in Clowance Estate and Noble Silk. He is drawn 14 of 14 here, and I just wonder if connections hands may be forced into sending him close to the front early to get a good position, now that stamina is assured? Jamie Spencer has executed some fine front running rides on the all weather in the last couple of years and I don't see a huge amount of contention for an early position outside the Johnston pair. I think anywhere in the first five or six should be fine, and I like the 7/1 versus around 2/1 on the favourite which looks short.

4.05 Lingfield 

Tarooq 3pts win @ 13/2 (William Hill, guaranteed, 6/1 Generally guaranteed)

Alben Star 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Generally guaranteed) - WON @ 25/1

This is a really good sprint, but I think Tarooq is a better horse over this course and distance than anything else in the line up. His form is up there with the best of these and I thought his win over Rivellino here last time was a huge effort, as he was out of his ground, against a pace bias, and had to challenge up the inner. I don't think his wide draw will be a problem, and the strong early pace should play into his hands.

Alben Star represents a stable in form, and some of his all weather form during the winter ties in with the best on offer here. He beat Trinityelitedotcom in January receiving 3lb, and was second to Rivellino on his penultimate run off levels having done too much donkey work and set the race up for that rival. He is far too big at 20/1 with Paul Hanagan back in the plate for the first time since before the selection's year off. He is well drawn and this race should pan out favourably for him.

Profit & loss: day: +43.25 / month: +87.75 / year: +36.40

Thursday 17th April 2014

Great racing today. Most of it is better for watching than betting on, but there is one race I'm particularly interested in.

2.55 Newmarket

Lanark 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 40/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, Independents, guaranteed)

Lyn Valley 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Johann Strauss probably has the best form in the book here but with his stable yet to find top stride, and question marks over his ability to handle the track having run a bit below form here as a two year old, he looks worth taking on. Of the principals, I'd be keen to take on Seagull Star and Hunter's Creek. I'm not sure either of the pair are up to what the market suggests and I'd be more worried about Sudden Wonder as a likely type - he is still too short at the prices, though.

I think Mark Johnston's Lanark and Lyn Valley are overpriced and we'll back both each-way and win.

Lanark kept some very good company as a two year old, but went off the boil and I would have to think he wasn't campaigned that well. Six furlongs always seemed too short for this galloper, and the step up to middle distances in his three year old season ought to suit. He is by Cape Cross out of a Linamix mare, and although his dam was a miler I can't help but feel Lanark will take after his sire. His defeat of Rosso Corsa over seven furlongs at Newbury showed him to be hearty on his day, and he looks the type who might just flourish this season. He is drawn in stall 1, which might be a negative, but I just wonder if Adam Kirby might try taking him far side. That is pretty much conjecture, but stamina wins this race (stable and owner combined with a son of Cape Cross to win it last year) and based on pedigree I think Lanark can go close.

Lyn Valley won at the July course over six furlongs, following up over seven at Goodwood in September. He was put away after two poor runs in September and October, but like Lanark remains a colt and seems to be the choice of Joe Fanning. He is another who kept good company as a two year old and on pedigree (Shamardal out of a Singspiel mare who won over this trip) he should improve for the step up to middle distances this year. He has a good draw and will probably have plenty of use made of him. The general 25/1 is too big.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: +44.50 / year: -6.85

Wednesday 16th April 2014

Some decent flat racing today. Our two selections are at Beverley.

1pt each-way double on today's selections, 9/2 and 6/1 generally guaranteed

4.15 Beverley Ujagar 4pts win @ 9/2 (Generally guaranteed)

Ujagar is a son of Dalakhani who stayed this trip really well at Southwell last time out when winning a fair looking three runner contest. He put distance between himself and the runner up at the one furlong pole and was soon clear, eased down in the last hundred yards. I think that performance may have been underestimated and I think he can carry a penalty today. He is a big horse with plenty of scope and his jockey rides these turning tracks well. 9/2 is fair and we'll include him in an each-way double.

5.25 Beverley Ambella 4pts win @ 6/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Ambella was selected by us on her second start, after a promising debut at Kempton. She had three quick runs at that track in February and was never really given a hard time in terms of being asked to win her race or being punished into a place. Connections can reap the reward for that patience today and she starts of on turf from a mark of OR70 which I feel she might be better than. She has been entered in a winnable fillies handicap, and although I'm not a fan of the jockey I feel his presence in the saddle is factored into the price and he at least knows the filly well having won on her on all starts. She is related to Smarty Socks and I think she could end up better on this surface. She shapes as though she will stay well and this extended mile with a stiff finish ought to suit.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: +50.50 / year: -0.85

Tuesday 15th April 2014

Just one bet for Tuesday.

2.50 Southwell Encore Un Fois 5pts win @ 7/1 (Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Betfair Sportsbook, Independents, guaranteed)

A tight looking handicap. Favourite Geeaitch was 1 1/4 lengths up on Encore Un Fois at the line last time, but with the latter 3lb better off today there are reasons to think the selection can turn the tables, and is value to do so at 7/1+. The selection didn't get the best of rides last time out and got a lot of kickback in his face having been held up right in behind horses. The pace was slow that day and with the horses bunched together, it didn't really suit him. I think the likes of Solarmaite and On The Cusp will ensure a better early tempo to this race which should suit Encore Un Fois. Additionally, Ruth Carr tends to bring her horses gradually towards fitness, and her string are only nearing what you would call peak fitness and form at the minute. This will be the selections' fourth run since a layoff, and you would think he will be close to his best having seemingly taken his other races well. I'm not a fan of Afro at this track (think her course record might be deceptive - not sure she truly acts here) and although Samoset is a possible danger I'm not sure about his attitude. At the prices, the selection's solid recent form makes him the bet of the day for me.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +60.50 / year: +9.15

Friday 11th April 2014

A nice winner yesterday with the well supported Strategic Force landing some late bets for the Cox stable. He might be one to follow.

Just one for this evening.

7.35 Wolverhampton Bapak Chinta 1pt each-way AND 3pts win @ 11/1 (Paddy Power, Stan James, Betpack.com, Betfair Sportsbook, guaranteed)

A good little sprint. Mappin' Time deserves to be favourite but I'd be inclined to take on a horse who hasn't won on the surface and he might be done by a quickener. Jubillee Brig has been winning lesser races, and is probably handicapped close to his best. I can't have Intrepid, who has never backed up second time out and didn't shape as though he wants six furlongs to my mind, on his debut for Tim Pitt. Bogsnog might be a touch below this class and Vincentti is a horse who is probably best on slow turf.

A chance is taken on Bapak Chinta in first time blinkers. He didn't show too much on his reappearance at this track, but he wasn't given a hard time and did manage to close at the finish. Connections experimented with front running tactics at Lingfield last time, but he weakened tamely - this may have been due to a dislike of the hill - he faded markedly coming down the gradient and may not have enjoyed the experience.

These Speightstown progeny are notoriously nervy as I have alluded to before, but Kevin Ryan has trained a few and knows how to get the best from them. They have a very good record in first time blinkers, and I would suggest that a return to Wolverhampton, the application of headgear, and the step up to six furlongs with a patient ride might well see this horse return to form this evening. I don't think the others set an exacting standard and I can't see anything else particularly well handicapped on polytrack. As a result I think the selection merits backing at anything in double figures, and although he is as likely to finish last as first, he would pick these up and carry them on his best form and track/trip/fitness are all on his side this evening in my view.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +65.50 / year: +14.15

Thursday 10th April 2014

One race of interest this evening.

6.10 Kempton

Strategic Force 3pts win @ 9/1 (Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, William Hill, Betfair Sportsbook, independents, guaranteed) - WON

Pendo 3pts win @ 16/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Baars Causeway doesn't set an exacting standard here, and nor does Mimi Luke, who looks modest and quite one paced. Pastoral Witness finished second in a tinpot affair at Yarmouth, and of those three none look convincing at the prices. A case can be made for Misstemper who finished second at Southwell on debut, but that was a poor race and she has been off since. Space Walker looks interesting and would be the danger to my two but I prefer the two biggest price horses in the field.

Strategic Force just qualifies for this event, having cost €35,000 as a yearling. He is a fine big horse, and started out at a Grade 1 track in Newbury, where he travelled well for a while before completely losing interest. This is a speculative bet, because he didn't show any aptitude for racing on that occasion, and he was hopeless too on his second start. He is a fine big horse, though, and appeals as the sort who might improve as a three year old having had a gelding operation. Adam Kirby rides this evening, the yard have already had a three year old winner over course and distance this spring and he looks value at 9/1.

Pendo is also worth backing. He showed nothing last time out, but got very upset at the stalls as he has done before. He is a temperamental individual, but doesn't lack ability: he had a Wolverhampton maiden all but won last winter when he jinked and unseated his rider. A first time hood could be key to his chances today - if he learns to settle down and not expend his energy before the race begins, he will be a threat to all. Again there is an element of the speculative about his chances, but the market principals aren't horses to be afraid of, and anything that gets it together on the day can come good and win this moderate looking event.

Profit & loss: day: +24.00 / month: +70.50 / year: +19.15

Tuesday 8th April 2014

A good card at Pontefract, and a lesser one at Southwell. That said, opportunities look hard to come by but one at Southwell takes the eye at the prices.

3.00 Southwell Very First Blade 3pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 8/1 (Generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

Very First Blade isn't the most talented horse on display this afternoon, but he is fairly handicapped and probably has his ideal conditions over Southwell's seven furlongs. He has shaped as though needing this kind of trip on his last few runs, and solid displays for the grade behind All Right Now (beaten a nose, 1lb better off here) and Mont Signal at Wolverhampton (holds Sam Spade on that form) give him a good chance here. He is turned out relatively quickly today, which is interesting given he has won after a three day break in the past. He was always outpaced over six furlongs at Wolverhampton but kept plugging away as he usually does. Having been caught wide for most of the trip, his jockey took it very easy on him close home. Back on this surface, and with Silvestre De Sousa booked for the first time, he makes plenty of appeal at the prices. Some of these look certain not to run their races, and given the selection's consistency I'm going to suggest backing him each-way and win.

Profit & loss: day: +0.80 / month: +46.50 / year: -4.85

Aintree 2014 - Day Three

A fine day for us yesterday, with a 33/1 placer in the first, 7/2 winner in the second, 14/1 big race winner, and two non account bets placed. Lets hope we can continue where we left off today and finish the meeting in style.

Today's card is top class.

1:30 Pertemps Network Mersey Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f

Dell' Arca 2pts win @ 7/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Un Ace 2pts win @ 9/1 / 8/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Dell' Arca has impressed all season and his effort in finishing fifth in a competitive Cheltenham handicap in all aged company deserves respect. It also proves he stays this far and his jockey if anything might have gotten there too soon. He looks too big at 7/1 here and there are no trip doubts on this sharper track stepping back a furlong.

Un Ace is also overpriced based on his running in the Supreme Novice. Kim Bailey rates him highly and it was a huge run to finish eighth on his second hurdles start. He shaped as is his future lay over further, and the extra few furlongs will be right up his street, provided Cheltenham didn't take too much out of him.

2:05 Doom Bar Maghull Novices Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m 

Simply Ned 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 - E/W 2nd

Simply Ned is progressing through the handicap ranks and represents a trainer who tends to target this meeting with his good horses even above Cheltenham itself. This looks a weak division and the selection's last run at Doncaster puts him in with a chance of making the step up to graded company here. He was third behind Doeslessthanme and Turn Over Sivola, giving the latter 15lb which is no easy task for a novice. The King horse finished second in a Grade 3 handicap here the other day, franking the form. Simply Ned has to improve, but he has been brought along with extreme patience by his handler and as a big, scopey horse, the benefits could be reaped today. This will have been the plan for some time and the galloping home straight will play right into this horses hands. He needs an end to end gallop, and he looks sure to get it with Next Sensation likely to tear ass off in front.

2:50 Silver Cross Stayers´ Hurdle (Registered as The Liverpool Hurdle) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m110y 

Salubrious 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 18/1 (Generally guaranteed)

I think At Fisher's Cross is worth taking on here, and I also feel Zarkandar has been beaten once too often this season to be backing him at shorts odds here. At a bigger price Salubrious makes plenty of appeal. The selection likes good ground and was only 2 1/4 lengths behind More Of That over two miles five in December. He disappointed on soft ground at Ascot after that, and then bombed out at Cheltenham where he got too buzzed up and never ran his race. A first time hood is applied today and it might help him relax and actually give his running. It's a bit of a chance to take backing horses who weren't right last time, at this stage of the season, but his trainer is never to be underestimated in long distance hurdles and I think he can go close if back to something like his best.

3:25 Betfred TV Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f 

Wetak 1pt each-way @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Gullinbursti 1pt each-way @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

Wiesentraum 1pt each-way @ 20/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Victor Hewgo is awfully short here for a horse who has been doing his labouring in small field chases, and he is taken on. Unioniste has a lot of weight to give away, and Saint Are may not be the force of old. I've taken three against the field at bigger prices. Gullinbursti had a lot of weight to give away at Kelso last time out, his form stacks up well and he is entitled to be right in the mix here. A first time visor is applied. The Pipe outfit has a reputation for taking handicaps with unexposed French bred chasers, and Wetak fits that bill. He ran really well at Cheltenham, where he lost his place early after a mistake, and he looked ready for a step up to staying trips having stayed on late when the race was essentially over as a contest. This looks far less competitive. Wiesentraum is in first time blinkers, and he has a really good record going left handed - three wins and a second over fences. He has beaten some good horses and I actually think he is fairly handicapped off OR130.

4:15 Crabbie´s Grand National Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 4m3f110y 

Make sure to use a bookmaker who pays 5 places on each-way bets.

The Package 1pt each-way @ 16/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Prince De Beauchene 1pt each-way @ 20/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Pineau De Re 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (Generally guaranteed) - WON

This looks a really good renewal, and it should be an exciting contest as always. I am taking the view that horses with the best form will come to the fore, rather like they did in yesterday's Topham, given the easier nature of the jumping test. As a result The Package is hard to resist, with his third at Cheltenham behind Holywell in mind. His stable have a good record in the race and although he was a much bigger price only a week ago, we now have the benefit of hindsight in knowing the form has been franked in no uncertain terms.

Prince De Beauchene has had a very typical National prep. He looks well treated by the handicapper for a horse with such class, and carries a nice racing weight as a result. With a clear round I feel he will be hard to keep out of the reckoning and his jockey will be buoyed having ridden two winners yesterday.

Pineau De Re will love the ground and is pretty much copper bottomed from a stamina point of view having won an Ulster National. His trainer had a few horses he could have targeted at this race and it speaks well for the horse that he got the Aintree prep. Jockey Leighton Aspell is having his best season I can remember, and he is another who should be thereabouts at the finish provided his jumping stands up.

5:10 Maxilead Metals Handicap Hurdle (For Conditional Jockeys and Amateur Riders) Cl2 2m110y

Non Account Bet: Bold Henry each-way @ 25/1

This is a minefield, and if you're ahead best keep your money in your pocket. Bold Henry is a speculative each-way poke under a good claimer.

5:45 Weatherbys Private Banking Champion Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Grade 2) Cl1 2m1f

Non Account Bet: Bringhometheminty each-way @ 5/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Again no bet, but I find it hard to see the favourite out of the places with stable and jockey in such good form, after an impressive win last time out.

Profit & loss: day: +20.25 / month: +45.70 / year: -5.65

Aintree 2014 - Day Two

We got place money on Argocat and Turn Over Sivola yesterday which wasn't too bad. A winner would have been welcome but hopefully we can rectify that today.

2:00 International Festival For Business 2014 Top Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m110y 

King Of The Picts 1pt each-way @ 33/1 (Generally guaranteed - use a bookmaker offering 1/4 odds for the place) - E/W 3rd

This really isn't a great renewal (a common theme in today's graded races) and a chance is taken on the Irish raider King Of The Picts improving for better ground. The selection has displayed a good turn of foot on a couple of occasions but perhaps hasn't been seen to best effect on deep winter ground behind The Tullow Tank and third behind Vautour on his two most recent starts. He probably isn't as good as those two horses, but neither is anything else in this field and as a horse who might improve for these conditions and a more patient ride, he looks overpriced and is worth a small each-way interest.

2:30 Betfred Mobile Mildmay Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 3m1f 

Holywell 4pts win @ 7/2 / 10/3 (Generally guaranteed) - WON

1pt each-way double Holywell / Rajdhani Express 10/3 and 9/2 generally - get guaranteed odds

O'Foalain's Boy had a hard race at Cheltenham and I can't get it out of my mind how fresh Holywell looked when storming away up the hill to land the big handicap on day one of the festival. I think he will prove to be better than handicap class over fences and he hasn't had many hard races this season. He is the type of horse who just does enough and the booking of tony McCoy is a massive positive - he was riding at the peak of his powers here yesterday and is worth a couple of pound at least when is is at that level. We'll include the selection in an each-way double too.

3:05 Betfred Melling Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f

Rajdhani Express 4pts win @ 9/2 (Generally)

Rajdhani Express was a selection for us in the Ryanair Chase and he travelled best of all bar maybe the winner. He jumped well and was probably unlucky not to get second in the end. I thought Sam Waley-Cohen had him a little too close to the pace too soon and with a more confident ride he should go close to making amends this afternoon. He is by Presenting and will be suited, as he always is, by good spring ground. There is some pace in this contest which will help him settle, and it bodes well that he won at Aintree last year.

3:40 Crabbie´s Supporting Everton In The Community Topham Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m5f110y 

Use a bookmaker paying 5 places on each-way bets

Ma Filleule 1pt each-way @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed) - WON

Lost Legend 1pt each-way @ 16/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Doeslessthanme 1pt each-way @ 33/1 / 28/1 (Generally guaranteed)

We didn't have much look with our selections over the National fences yesterday, with one withdrawn and two early fallers. This race has a very different make up to it, though, with professional jockeys and a different standard of horse, and I just wonder if the victory of Triolo D'Alene last season confirms that the new fences are easier to negotiate, therefore opening this up to being won by the best horse rather than the horse who takes to the unique test best? With that in mind, Ma Filleule looks well handicapped based on her second at Cheltenham, and she won't lack for assistance from the saddle with Barry Geraghty in the plate. Lost Legend returned to form with a win last time out and if he can continue that progression in cheekpieces he will be a threat to all. He is by Winged Love, and can be expected to thrive on this summer ground. His jockey rides these fences well and 16/1 is too big. Doeslessthanme's victory at Doncaster has been franked by the second who finished second here yesterday. He seems to be in the form of his life for his new handler and his run style suggests this test will suit him. He isn't a guaranteed stayer, but has won at 2m4f in the past, albeit in a less truly run race. He is worth an additional interest at the prices. One place returns at least 70% of our stake, and with five places paid, selecting three horses to small each-way stakes looks the smart way to get involved here.

4:15 Doom Bar Sefton Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 3m110y 

The Last Samuri 1pt each-way @ 33/1 (Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 25/1 generally guaranteed)

Quite a few of these have ground / stamina issues, but that can't be said for the dogged The Last Samuri, who is locally trained and sees out this kind of trip strongly. I was surprised he was being offered at 25/1+, because those at the head of the market have question marks about them in one way or another, and I expected the market to be more compressed. Unfortunately Jason Maguire is injured and can't take the ride, but I think that is factored into the price and his replacement Henry Brooke rides plenty of winners for the stable.

4:50 Alder Hey Children´s Charity Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m4f

Non account Bet: Caid Du Berlais each-way @ 8/1 (Generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

This is a minefield, Caid Du Berlais looks good for a place at least if getting normal luck in running and he is a token selection for those who want to have an 

interest.

5:25 Concerto Group Mares´ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed) Cl1 2m1f

Non Account Bet: Tara Mist each-way @ 7/1 (Generally guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

I think Tara Mist has the best form on offer here and a jockey who rides these races really well. I think she'll be in the three with normal luck in running. It isn't a betting race for me though, and she rates only a token choice.

Profit & loss: day: +28.75 / month: +25,45 / year: -25.90

Aintree 2014 - Day One

Day one of Aintree's flagship meeting is packed with top quality racing and we have numerous interests throughout the afternoon.

2:00 Injured Jockeys Fund 50th Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m1f

Hawk High 1pt each-way @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Baradari 1pt each-way @ 33/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Commissioned 1pt each-way @ 20/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 18/1 / 16/1 generally guaranteed)

This year's Triumph Hurdle didn't look a vintage renewal and I'm keen to play against Calipto and Activial, who comes here having skipped that race, at the prices. Hawk High pretty much bolted up at the festival in the Fred Winter, and he has strong Aintree form to his name having broken his duck over hurdles over this course and distance. He looked a fresh horse at the end of the Fred Winter and although I'm sure that's not entirely the case, he has been lightly enough raced this season to give him a good shout here and I don't think his price should be in double figures.

Venetia Williams is represented by Baradari, who cost a fortune and was still travelling well upsides Calipto on his hurdling debut before a mistake cost him his chance. Baradari was held up in last in the Fred Winter, and patently failed to handle the downhill run. He wasn't too clever around the sharp turn for home either, but once he got himself organised he finished best of all up the hill. I think a flat track and Aintree's long galloping run in will suit him well, and although he has it to prove at this kind of level he has always been well regarded and he is overpriced with relation to Hawk High at 33/1.

Commissioned is really interesting on the basis of his second behind Activial in the Adonis. The ground was hock deep that day and I don't think it suited the selection, whose action suggests good ground suits him best. He skipped Cheltenham for this and it is interesting the stable jockey seems to choose him over Broughton. He is too big in relation to Activial with today's conditions likely to suit better. He was a tough battler on the flat and a big field and long, galloping run in will play right into his hands.

2:30 Betfred Bowl Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 3m1f

Already Advised: Argocat 2pts each-way @ 33/1 (Bet Victor, Paddy Power, Stan James, Betpack.com - 1/5 1-2-3) - E/W 3rd

You only have to look at Follow The Plan's 50/1 success in this race a couple of years ago to realise that the best horse doesn't always win this race. Cheltenham, and the Gold Cup in particular, leaves its mark and I'd be against Silviniaco Conti as a result with that horse having had a hard race three weeks ago. Dynaste is prone to throwing in the odd stinker although he is the most likely winner here, and First Lieutenant was scratched from the Gold Cup having apparently not eaten up. As such there are potential negatives to everything here and Argocat is taken to cause a shock at a huge price. With six runners, the each-way terms from our ante post bet are in our favour. The selection beat an in form horse at Gowran Park last time out giving weight away on bad ground, and he showed good battling qualities in doing so. I think he has been crying out for a step up to this kind of trip and his canny trainer nominated this race as soon as he had passed the post at Gowran. He has around a stone to find on the book, but not everything is guaranteed to run its race here and Argocat is unexposed and progressive. Tony McCoy takes the ride and our price is far too big.

3:05 Doom Bar Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f

Non Account Bet: The New One to win @ 4/11 - WON

Most of you will know we had The New One as an each-way maximum for the Champion Hurdle. I very much think we were unlucky not to collect with the selection badly hampered by the unfortunate Our Conor, and I don't think anything in this line up can touch him. Obviously no bet at 4/11 but for those at the track, I've seen worse odds on bets.

3:40 Crabbie´s Supporting The Hillsborough Families Fox Hunters´ Chase Cl2 2m5f110y

Bet 365, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betbyrne.com and other independents offer 4 places guaranteed - use one of these bookmakers

Supreme Doc 1pt each-way @ 12/1 best price with bookmakers above

Pentiffic 1pt each-way @ 20/1 best price with bookmakers above

Brunswick Gold 1pt each-way @ 28/1 best price with bookmakers above

I'm very keen to take on Mossey Joe here at the prices, because I don't think the shape he makes when jumping will do him any favours over these fences, and I'm not sure I want to be taking under 2/1 about a horse who has limited experience of a big field like this and is usually allowed to dominate. Warne looks short enough too - I don't think he was ever going to win last year and at 4/1 he is also opposed.

Supreme Doc comes here fresh which is a bit of a worry, but that isn't an insurmountable obstacle if he is tuned up. His fifth in the Galway Plate puts him in with a right shout here and I'm quite keen on him as it happens. 12/1 is too big and the booking of Jamie Codd is a bonus. Pentiffic won a Hunter Chase last time out to qualify for this, and the form couldn't have worked out better. His running style will suit this race and his trainer, having trained a National winner, deserves respect with everything she runs over these fences. Lastly, Brunswick Gold has improved since joining Rose Grissell and again, his running style and jumping technique will help him here. He has a bit to find on the book but I don't think it's that big a task if Mossey Joe fails to fire and he is too big at 28/1.

What we'll do here is back the three horses each-way with a bookmaker who offers 4 places. Should one of our selections run a place, we get most of our stake back and it isn't beyond the realms of possibility that we'll get a return on two or even three of the selections.

4:15 Silver Cross Red Rum Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 2m

Turn Over Sivola 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 9/1 (Generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

This is traditionally a pretty weak division, and I think many of these will be vulnerable to anything progressive in the line up. Alan King has a good Aintree record and I like the chances of his Turn Over Sivola. The selection has been mixing it with some good novices during the winter, but never really impressed with his jumping until his most recent start at Doncaster. He looked the winner there coming to the last but probably just got tired given it was his first run in over two months. Today will have been the plan ever since and if his jumping is as good as it was last time, He has every chance of going one better here. He looks better than a OR134 chaser and I have to hand it to Choc Thornton, he rode really well over the Cheltenham festival fences a few weeks ago and I'd be delighted if he got a winner on the board here today.

4:50 Pinsent Masons Manifesto Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f

Non Account Bet: Western Warhorse to win @ 11/4 (Generally guaranteed)

A very trappy event from a betting point of view, and we won't be having an interest. Western Warhorse had a hard race at Cheltenham but isn't 11/4 a bit big for an Arkle winner coming into a lesser race like this? It is hard to know for sure, and he may have had that race set up for him, but it takes a good one to win an Arkle second time over fences and my money would be on him to confirm his top class status today.

5:25 Dominican Republic Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 3m110y

Non account bet: Jetson each-way @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed) - E/W 4th

A brilliant race but an absolute minefield. Watch and enjoy, my speculative interest would be on Jetson each-way at 14/1, to go one better than his second in this race last year.

Profit & loss: day: +0.70 / month: -3.30 / year: -54.65

Wednesday 2nd April 2014

Just one for today. Expect Aintree price alerts over the course of the day.

3.05 Southwell Ladweb 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 20/1 (Bet 365, Coral, William Hill, guaranteed, 18/1 Bet Victor guaranteed)

Keep It Dark travels strongly, but doesn't seem to find a lot off the bridle and although he ran well behind Alpha Tauri the other day, he was never going to win and I think he is worth taking on at 5/2. There are a few of these who won't handle the surface, and of those that do nothing sticks out as obviously well handicapped . Sir Geoffrey is the obvious one as a result but he is rising in the handicap and has a tendency to spit the dummy if he doesn't get an easy trip into a contest, which he may not get here from stall 9. A chance is taken on Ladweb taking to the fibresand as a result. He definitely is well handicapped on his best form and has the assistance of an in form 3lb claimer to boot. He is drawn well in stall 6 and I think he is the type of horse who might enjoy this test. He has loads of early speed, and tends to grind it out and keep going at one pace rather than actually quickening, in the style of many horses who enjoy Southwell's fibresand (and in particular this five furlong course). I have a theory that it is not as important to have fibresand experience or breeding on the straight course here, early speed and the ability to maintain that speed seems to be more important. Ladweb ran quite well at Kempton recently on his seasonal debut, and if he comes on for that run, he is entitled to go close here at a big price.

Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: -4.00 / year: -55.35

Monday 31st March 2014

Again one race of interest today, with three selections in the race.

4.30 Kempton

Marjong 2pts win @ 10/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 9/1 generally guaranteed)

Vincentti 1pt each-way @ 28/1 (Skybet, guaranteed, 25/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

Nenge Mboko 1pt each-way @ 50/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, guaranteed, 33/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

At 11/10 best price, I think Dutiful Son has to be taken on here in a better race than that which he won handily last time out. He is up 8lb, up in class, and has to prove he is as good second time out as he is fresh. He hits the ground quite hard even on this surface, and I'm not sure he is an obvious type to improve hand over fist much and all as he did win impressively last time.

Marjong is generally around 9 times his price, yet she is 6lb better off with the selection today and she shaped as if her run was needed. She was tardy from the stalls, and held right up detatched in rear, not really given a chance to win and never hit with the whip. Connections reportedly like her, and if Hayley Turner can get her into the race earlier today she might give the favourite something to think about.

Vincentti appeals at a big price and must be backed each-way. He has been dropped 2lb for his reappearance at Lingfield, where he was badly hampered on the home turn and tired late on. His stable's horses have been in reasonable form of late and this horse came to hand early last season. He is better than a mark of OR78 and some of his three year old sprinting form gives him every chance here. He can be expected to come on for Lingfield and this track might suit better too. He is well drawn and in a race with little pace in it, looks like he might have this run to suit.

I can't resist adding Nenge Mboko at a huge price.  The selection improved for the application of a visor last season and went in to my notebook when he ran a huge race at Goodwood behind Magic City over seven furlongs at the Glorious meeting, making his challenge on the wrong part of the track and probably not seeing out the seven furlongs strongly. He has a wide draw to overcome today, and his regular pilot Pat Cosgrave is facing a lengthy ban, but Kim Crowley is no mean replacement and connections stick with the visor. He seems to have been written off in the market but his stable had a four year old sprinter finish second on seasonal debut in the Doncaster sprint yesterday, and they have been firing in winners just lately. 33/1+ seems rather dismissive and he is worth including at that price.

Profit & loss: day: +11.60 / month: -65.55 / year: -51.35

Sunday 30th March 2014

One race of interest this afternoon.

3.20 Doncaster

Another Wise Kid 2pts win @ 11/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)

Lastchancelucas 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (Bet Victor, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Betfair Sportsbook, guaranteed)

Bedloe's Island 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (Bet Victor, Coral, guaranteed, 20/1 generally guaranteed)

Unusually I've decided to take a three pronged attack on this sprint handicap, mainly because I'm happy to oppose those at the head of the market - 7/1 the field suggests nobody is too confident about who should be favourite and I'm not keen on Sir Reginald or Flyman, much and all as they are likely to be tuned up.

Of the shorter prices, Another Wise Kid appeals best. His yard have been going well and their runners seem more forward this year than they were in 2013. The selection ran really well in this race last year, but this year has had a prep and has the notable booking of Graham Lee where Mickey Fenton was in the plate last year. Lee will suit this horse, track, trip and ground will too and although he can't be described as chucked in he should certainly run his race.

Lastchancelucas represents a trainer who is a dab hand with sprinters. The selection can go well fresh, and kept some hot company as a three year old last season behind the likes of Lancelot Du Lac and Secondo at York. I think a straight six furlongs on soft ground is his optimum, and he is well handicapped off OR80. He is a four year old now and taking on all aged company will be easier than being pitted against classy three year olds. The question mark is his fitness level, but were he to turn up ready here he would go close off this kind of mark.

Bedloe's Island isn't getting any younger, but seemed to improve for the switch to Alan McCabe when winning a 5f Southwell handicap at a big price last December. That showed he can go well after a break, and McCabe seems to have resisted the temptation to take in another Southwell handicap in favour of keeping the horse fresh for the turf. This is a horse who has given trouble at the stalls and I know McCabe's team have done plenty of work with him to help him settle and relax at the races. If he is well behaved today, the strong pace and soft ground will suit. It is anyone's guess whether he can get home over six furlongs, but a relaxed horse can achieve things previously unattainable under mental duress, and with Tom Queally (who rode the winner of this race last year) in the plate he has a very able partner to guide him home.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: -77.15 / year: -62.95

Saturday 29th March 2014

The flat season kicks off today, and we have just one interest for the afternoon, in the feature handicap.

3.50 Doncaster Tres Coronas 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed)

Tres Coronas is a seven year old now, but seems to have found a new lease of life in big field handicaps over the course of the past couple of years, culminating in a fine third in the Cambridgeshire last September where he finished clear of his side of the field. He remains well treated off a mark of OR96, and seems to have been quite well drawn today given the field came up the centre of the track last year on soft ground. The selection very much caught the eye on his recent reappearance behind Whispering Warrior, failing to get a run at Wolverhampton and not given anything like a hard time in the closing stages. With his handicap mark protected and a good pipe opener behind him, he makes plenty of appeal this afternoon as a horse who seems to thrive in these big field handicaps. He will enjoy the cut in the ground given all but one of his turf wins have come on ground with "soft" in the description, and his assured stamina for this mile trip will be an asset in the closing stages. Expect him to keep galloping when others have cried enough.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -71.15 / year: -56.95

Friday 28th March 2014

Just one bet for Friday. We may have price alerts for this weekend's racing over the course of the day.

4.40 Lingfield Fair Value 5pts win @ 6/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Fair Value hasn't won since June 2012, but her attitude can't be faulted and she has kept much better company than this in the interim. She looked the winner of the Epsom Dash last year before being collared late by Duke Of Firenze, and no doubt connections are eyeing a similar early season campaign this time around. She has already had a run, which is a big plus as it gives her a probable advantage over these, and she ran quite well behind Gregori on that occasion when given a hold up ride by Frankie Dettori which isn't what she usually requires. She is in stall eight here and I would hope George Baker will use her speed from the stalls to get a prominent sit. There isn't a huge amount of early speed for a five furlong sprint here so stall eight of ten isn't as cumbersome as is could be. This is a good piece of placement, with the mare giving away weight in a 0-85 against inferior opposition, and with Baker in the plate a minimal amount of lead in the saddle cloth. Picansort is 1lb better off for a half length beating by Fair Value last time they met, but the selection didn't look like being headed by him and is also entitled to come on for that run. With Picansort trading 7/2 and the selection almost twice that price, the selection seems aptly named.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -66.15 / year: -51.95

Thursday 27th March 2014

One afternoon selection, evening bets may follow before 5.00pm.

5.15 Southwell Meddling 5pts win @ 11/2 (Generally guaranteed)

Meddling looks a touch overpriced here and that is probably down to the fact that she hasn't raced on fibresand before. Her chief rival Hot Right Now looks short at 8/11 even though she is proven on the surface, and she was ultimately well beaten by Imaginary World over course and distance last time and might be approaching a point where she is exposed on the surface. Bladewood Girl has been well beaten on all four starts here, and Run Fat Lass Run looks very moderate. The selection is a Sir Michael Stoute cast off with a nice pedigree. Her penultimate run at Lingfield behind Waveguide would probably be good enough to win this, but she hasn't seen out ten furlongs strongly as of yet and I find it interesting she is dropped to a mile today.

The selection has been keen on occasion and has looked a nervy type of filly. Competing against her own sex, and the application of a first time hood, both should be in her favour today and if these factors help her relax, I think she has the scope to improve. She is a physically imposing daughter of Halling, whose progeny have a 13% strike rate at this track, out of a Pivotal mare. Her strong travelling style should be well suited to this surface, and I think she could be a bit better than an OR59 type if she does handle it. At 11/2 versus 8/11 for the favourite, I think she represents very good value.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -61.15 / year: -46.95

Wednesday 26th March 2014

A cracking good day's all weather racing today. We have two races of interest this afternoon, a possible evening bet will follow before 5.00pm.

4.00 Lingfield

Doldrums 3pts win @ 4/1 (Generally guaranteed)

The Holyman 3pts win @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 16/1 Generally guaranteed)

I think there are a few non stayers in here, with Lady Lunchalot, Menelik and Munsarim all relatively unproven over this distance. I fancy two against the field at the prices, and I'm also wondering if Jim Crowley's booking on Angus Glens has affected his and The Holyman's prices given the latter is with a trainer Crowley often rides for. Crowley probably didn't have the choice because he has never ridden The Holyman and doesn't often ride for his owners (five rides and one winner for them in the past five years, forty five rides and five winners for Fergus Sweeney).

Angus Glens might prove to be the best horse in the race by some way but he is too short on his polytrack debut. He hasn't looked a quickener on any of his turf starts and I would fear he might get left behind by horses more used to the surface and suited to the tempo of the race. At around 2/1 he makes no appeal.

I've split stakes on Doldrums and The Holyman, because while I think both offer value at the prices, there is probably a slightly greater edge in The Holyman's price so I'm keen to take advantage of that rather than weighting the stake towards the shorter priced of the pair. Doldrums actually looks rock solid here to me as a horse who can travel on the pace, who looks to be still improving and probably just went off a shade too quickly at Southwell last time out. That looked a stronger contest than this, and she pulled well clear with the winner. The return to polytrack doesn't concern me too much given she has won on the surface, and I think she just had an off day when she disappointed here on her last visit. If anything I think this sharper track will suit her better than Wolverhampton and if she is on a going day she will go close.

The Holyman is a course and distance winner who looks to be on a very fair handicap mark of OR71. Jo Crowley's horses are running better now than they have been in a while and the selection looked to have a physical problem when he disappointed here in January (seemed to lose his action and was eased). He isn't a consistent horse, but he can go well after a break and has some strong enough course form. A small field around here is ideally what he wants so everything is in his favour today. Fergus Sweeney has won on him before and 16/1+ is too big.

4.50 Southwell Frankthetank 5pts win @ 9/4 (Totesport, Betfred, guaranteed, 2/1 generally guaranteed)

Keith Dalgleish's horses go really well here and Frankthetank has already notched up three wins here this winter. I think his last run and win over this course and distance was far superior to what Day Star Lad achieved last time out and I fancy the selection to give him a beating this afternoon. My figures suggest he ran the first half of the race in a much better time than Day Star Lad did and I would think he might have that rival out of his comfort zone by the time they come around the home turn today. The selection stays strongly around here and I thought he would be favourite this morning. Although he is short enough compared to our average selection price, I think he is excellent value at the 2/1+, as I made him more like 11/8 on my own book.

Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: -56.15 / year: -41.95

Tuesday 25th March 2014

It isn't an easy day to find opportunities at Southwell, there is one race of interest on which we'll play speculatively.

2.50 Southwell

Flying Author 1pt each-way @ 28/1 AND 1pt win (Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 25/1 generally guaranteed)

Somerton Star 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 40/1 (Generally guaranteed)

These older horse maidens at Southwell can sometimes throw up shock results, usually because the best horse in the race doesn't act on the surface and I would suggest Ridgeway Storm is a prime candidate to resent the kickback and fail to act on fibresand this afternoon. The horse is well clear on ratings, but he didn't really pass any horses on his debut last year (rather he was happy to gallop along in the pack) and he displayed an awkward head carriage into the bargain. If he gets behind here I think he might spit the dummy, and it is interesting his current connections haven't tried him hurdling - perhaps he hasn't shown any aptitude for them - it might be that this horse is simply a slow learner. There are no pedigree hints that this horse will relish fibresand either.

Sheila's Heart made an okay fibresand debut, but that race was desperately week and and he only stayed on one pace. I don't know if that merited an RPR of 69 and he looks short at 3/1. He has to race from stall 1 today and gone are the days when I'd trust a claiming jockey to pull the horse off the rail in order to race on the better ground - at this kind of price I want everything in my favour and it's not for me at the odds.

From Frost is bred for fibresand but has no experience, wears a tongue tie on debut and has drifted badly in the market this morning. Philosofy drifted really badly in the market at Wolverhampton two weeks ago and showed little, eventually pulling up.

For these reasons I want to take a chance on supporting both outsiders to improve on what they have shown so far. Flying Author represents a stable whose horses have won Southwell maidens at big prices in the past, and there are no question marks about his ability to handle the surface. He travels well on it, and although he is up in trip today he is by a sire whose progeny tend to improve with distance and as such there might be improvement in him. Luke Morris is an interesting jockey booking and a first time tongue tie is applied after the horse weakened quickly last time out over a mile here, having travelled into the race well. If this helps with the horses' breathing, he is no 25/1 shot here.

Somerton Star also represents a stable who get winners here. He is rated just OR39 but being stoutly bred was always likely to need time and a staying trip. Joe Fanning retains the ride and you would think Fanning has told the trainer to try this surface. The selection is a half brother to Zaffeau, a good stayer around here a few years ago, and his pedigree and action suggest the surface will suit. He has a lot to find on the book, but I think he will eventually improve and he looks more likely than some of the others to improve for the switch to fibresand and on that basis I don't think he should be the rank outsider. First time blinkers are tried in place of a visor and hood.

Backing both of our selections as advised assures a small profit should one run into a place.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: -45.15 / year: -30.95