Day one of Aintree's flagship meeting is packed with top quality racing and we have numerous interests throughout the afternoon.
2:00 Injured Jockeys Fund 50th Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m1f
Hawk High 1pt each-way @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed)
Baradari 1pt each-way @ 33/1 (Generally guaranteed)
Commissioned 1pt each-way @ 20/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 18/1 / 16/1 generally guaranteed)
This year's Triumph Hurdle didn't look a vintage renewal and I'm keen to play against Calipto and Activial, who comes here having skipped that race, at the prices. Hawk High pretty much bolted up at the festival in the Fred Winter, and he has strong Aintree form to his name having broken his duck over hurdles over this course and distance. He looked a fresh horse at the end of the Fred Winter and although I'm sure that's not entirely the case, he has been lightly enough raced this season to give him a good shout here and I don't think his price should be in double figures.
Venetia Williams is represented by Baradari, who cost a fortune and was still travelling well upsides Calipto on his hurdling debut before a mistake cost him his chance. Baradari was held up in last in the Fred Winter, and patently failed to handle the downhill run. He wasn't too clever around the sharp turn for home either, but once he got himself organised he finished best of all up the hill. I think a flat track and Aintree's long galloping run in will suit him well, and although he has it to prove at this kind of level he has always been well regarded and he is overpriced with relation to Hawk High at 33/1.
Commissioned is really interesting on the basis of his second behind Activial in the Adonis. The ground was hock deep that day and I don't think it suited the selection, whose action suggests good ground suits him best. He skipped Cheltenham for this and it is interesting the stable jockey seems to choose him over Broughton. He is too big in relation to Activial with today's conditions likely to suit better. He was a tough battler on the flat and a big field and long, galloping run in will play right into his hands.
2:30 Betfred Bowl Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 3m1f
Already Advised: Argocat 2pts each-way @ 33/1 (Bet Victor, Paddy Power, Stan James, Betpack.com - 1/5 1-2-3) - E/W 3rd
You only have to look at Follow The Plan's 50/1 success in this race a couple of years ago to realise that the best horse doesn't always win this race. Cheltenham, and the Gold Cup in particular, leaves its mark and I'd be against Silviniaco Conti as a result with that horse having had a hard race three weeks ago. Dynaste is prone to throwing in the odd stinker although he is the most likely winner here, and First Lieutenant was scratched from the Gold Cup having apparently not eaten up. As such there are potential negatives to everything here and Argocat is taken to cause a shock at a huge price. With six runners, the each-way terms from our ante post bet are in our favour. The selection beat an in form horse at Gowran Park last time out giving weight away on bad ground, and he showed good battling qualities in doing so. I think he has been crying out for a step up to this kind of trip and his canny trainer nominated this race as soon as he had passed the post at Gowran. He has around a stone to find on the book, but not everything is guaranteed to run its race here and Argocat is unexposed and progressive. Tony McCoy takes the ride and our price is far too big.
3:05 Doom Bar Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f
Non Account Bet: The New One to win @ 4/11 - WON
Most of you will know we had The New One as an each-way maximum for the Champion Hurdle. I very much think we were unlucky not to collect with the selection badly hampered by the unfortunate Our Conor, and I don't think anything in this line up can touch him. Obviously no bet at 4/11 but for those at the track, I've seen worse odds on bets.
3:40 Crabbie´s Supporting The Hillsborough Families Fox Hunters´ Chase Cl2 2m5f110y
Bet 365, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betbyrne.com and other independents offer 4 places guaranteed - use one of these bookmakers
Supreme Doc 1pt each-way @ 12/1 best price with bookmakers above
Pentiffic 1pt each-way @ 20/1 best price with bookmakers above
Brunswick Gold 1pt each-way @ 28/1 best price with bookmakers above
I'm very keen to take on Mossey Joe here at the prices, because I don't think the shape he makes when jumping will do him any favours over these fences, and I'm not sure I want to be taking under 2/1 about a horse who has limited experience of a big field like this and is usually allowed to dominate. Warne looks short enough too - I don't think he was ever going to win last year and at 4/1 he is also opposed.
Supreme Doc comes here fresh which is a bit of a worry, but that isn't an insurmountable obstacle if he is tuned up. His fifth in the Galway Plate puts him in with a right shout here and I'm quite keen on him as it happens. 12/1 is too big and the booking of Jamie Codd is a bonus. Pentiffic won a Hunter Chase last time out to qualify for this, and the form couldn't have worked out better. His running style will suit this race and his trainer, having trained a National winner, deserves respect with everything she runs over these fences. Lastly, Brunswick Gold has improved since joining Rose Grissell and again, his running style and jumping technique will help him here. He has a bit to find on the book but I don't think it's that big a task if Mossey Joe fails to fire and he is too big at 28/1.
What we'll do here is back the three horses each-way with a bookmaker who offers 4 places. Should one of our selections run a place, we get most of our stake back and it isn't beyond the realms of possibility that we'll get a return on two or even three of the selections.
4:15 Silver Cross Red Rum Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 2m
Turn Over Sivola 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 9/1 (Generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd
This is traditionally a pretty weak division, and I think many of these will be vulnerable to anything progressive in the line up. Alan King has a good Aintree record and I like the chances of his Turn Over Sivola. The selection has been mixing it with some good novices during the winter, but never really impressed with his jumping until his most recent start at Doncaster. He looked the winner there coming to the last but probably just got tired given it was his first run in over two months. Today will have been the plan ever since and if his jumping is as good as it was last time, He has every chance of going one better here. He looks better than a OR134 chaser and I have to hand it to Choc Thornton, he rode really well over the Cheltenham festival fences a few weeks ago and I'd be delighted if he got a winner on the board here today.
4:50 Pinsent Masons Manifesto Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f
Non Account Bet: Western Warhorse to win @ 11/4 (Generally guaranteed)
A very trappy event from a betting point of view, and we won't be having an interest. Western Warhorse had a hard race at Cheltenham but isn't 11/4 a bit big for an Arkle winner coming into a lesser race like this? It is hard to know for sure, and he may have had that race set up for him, but it takes a good one to win an Arkle second time over fences and my money would be on him to confirm his top class status today.
5:25 Dominican Republic Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 3m110y
Non account bet: Jetson each-way @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed) - E/W 4th
A brilliant race but an absolute minefield. Watch and enjoy, my speculative interest would be on Jetson each-way at 14/1, to go one better than his second in this race last year.
Profit & loss: day: +0.70 / month: -3.30 / year: -54.65
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