A fine day for us yesterday, with a 33/1 placer in the first, 7/2 winner in the second, 14/1 big race winner, and two non account bets placed. Lets hope we can continue where we left off today and finish the meeting in style.
Today's card is top class.
1:30 Pertemps Network Mersey Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f
Dell' Arca 2pts win @ 7/1 (Generally guaranteed)
Un Ace 2pts win @ 9/1 / 8/1 (Generally guaranteed)
Dell' Arca has impressed all season and his effort in finishing fifth in a competitive Cheltenham handicap in all aged company deserves respect. It also proves he stays this far and his jockey if anything might have gotten there too soon. He looks too big at 7/1 here and there are no trip doubts on this sharper track stepping back a furlong.
Un Ace is also overpriced based on his running in the Supreme Novice. Kim Bailey rates him highly and it was a huge run to finish eighth on his second hurdles start. He shaped as is his future lay over further, and the extra few furlongs will be right up his street, provided Cheltenham didn't take too much out of him.
2:05 Doom Bar Maghull Novices Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m
Simply Ned 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 - E/W 2nd
Simply Ned is progressing through the handicap ranks and represents a trainer who tends to target this meeting with his good horses even above Cheltenham itself. This looks a weak division and the selection's last run at Doncaster puts him in with a chance of making the step up to graded company here. He was third behind Doeslessthanme and Turn Over Sivola, giving the latter 15lb which is no easy task for a novice. The King horse finished second in a Grade 3 handicap here the other day, franking the form. Simply Ned has to improve, but he has been brought along with extreme patience by his handler and as a big, scopey horse, the benefits could be reaped today. This will have been the plan for some time and the galloping home straight will play right into this horses hands. He needs an end to end gallop, and he looks sure to get it with Next Sensation likely to tear ass off in front.
2:50 Silver Cross Stayers´ Hurdle (Registered as The Liverpool Hurdle) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m110y
Salubrious 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 18/1 (Generally guaranteed)
I think At Fisher's Cross is worth taking on here, and I also feel Zarkandar has been beaten once too often this season to be backing him at shorts odds here. At a bigger price Salubrious makes plenty of appeal. The selection likes good ground and was only 2 1/4 lengths behind More Of That over two miles five in December. He disappointed on soft ground at Ascot after that, and then bombed out at Cheltenham where he got too buzzed up and never ran his race. A first time hood is applied today and it might help him relax and actually give his running. It's a bit of a chance to take backing horses who weren't right last time, at this stage of the season, but his trainer is never to be underestimated in long distance hurdles and I think he can go close if back to something like his best.
3:25 Betfred TV Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f
Wetak 1pt each-way @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed)
Gullinbursti 1pt each-way @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed) - E/W 3rd
Wiesentraum 1pt each-way @ 20/1 (Generally guaranteed)
Victor Hewgo is awfully short here for a horse who has been doing his labouring in small field chases, and he is taken on. Unioniste has a lot of weight to give away, and Saint Are may not be the force of old. I've taken three against the field at bigger prices. Gullinbursti had a lot of weight to give away at Kelso last time out, his form stacks up well and he is entitled to be right in the mix here. A first time visor is applied. The Pipe outfit has a reputation for taking handicaps with unexposed French bred chasers, and Wetak fits that bill. He ran really well at Cheltenham, where he lost his place early after a mistake, and he looked ready for a step up to staying trips having stayed on late when the race was essentially over as a contest. This looks far less competitive. Wiesentraum is in first time blinkers, and he has a really good record going left handed - three wins and a second over fences. He has beaten some good horses and I actually think he is fairly handicapped off OR130.
4:15 Crabbie´s Grand National Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 4m3f110y
Make sure to use a bookmaker who pays 5 places on each-way bets.
The Package 1pt each-way @ 16/1 (Generally guaranteed)
Prince De Beauchene 1pt each-way @ 20/1 (Generally guaranteed)
Pineau De Re 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (Generally guaranteed) - WON
This looks a really good renewal, and it should be an exciting contest as always. I am taking the view that horses with the best form will come to the fore, rather like they did in yesterday's Topham, given the easier nature of the jumping test. As a result The Package is hard to resist, with his third at Cheltenham behind Holywell in mind. His stable have a good record in the race and although he was a much bigger price only a week ago, we now have the benefit of hindsight in knowing the form has been franked in no uncertain terms.
Prince De Beauchene has had a very typical National prep. He looks well treated by the handicapper for a horse with such class, and carries a nice racing weight as a result. With a clear round I feel he will be hard to keep out of the reckoning and his jockey will be buoyed having ridden two winners yesterday.
Pineau De Re will love the ground and is pretty much copper bottomed from a stamina point of view having won an Ulster National. His trainer had a few horses he could have targeted at this race and it speaks well for the horse that he got the Aintree prep. Jockey Leighton Aspell is having his best season I can remember, and he is another who should be thereabouts at the finish provided his jumping stands up.
5:10 Maxilead Metals Handicap Hurdle (For Conditional Jockeys and Amateur Riders) Cl2 2m110y
Non Account Bet: Bold Henry each-way @ 25/1
This is a minefield, and if you're ahead best keep your money in your pocket. Bold Henry is a speculative each-way poke under a good claimer.
5:45 Weatherbys Private Banking Champion Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Grade 2) Cl1 2m1f
Non Account Bet: Bringhometheminty each-way @ 5/1 (Generally guaranteed)
Again no bet, but I find it hard to see the favourite out of the places with stable and jockey in such good form, after an impressive win last time out.
Profit & loss: day: +20.25 / month: +45.70 / year: -5.65
No comments:
Post a Comment