Again we had to make do with each-way money yesterday, Rajdhani Express and At Fisher's Cross both running into a place. I didn't know whether to laugh or cry when Uxizandre was touched off into 2nd having recommended a saver at 40/1, given that it wouldn't have counted towards our totals. In addition, I opposed Southfield Theatre in the big handicap because I didn't think he got up the hill strongly enough. He almost did, but he was sent to the front fully two furlongs too soon by Daryl Jacob and I'm not surprised he was upset. That horse is probably the most fluent jumper of a hurdler in training and we haven't heard the last of him by any means. Many of you will know he was part of my ten to follow (on thebettingboards.com) and it would have been tough to take had he won at that price.
On to day four.
1:30 JCB Triumph Hurdle Grade 1 Cl1 2m1f
Selection: Pearl Castle 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed)
The front six in the market have this between them in my view, and I'd have Pearl Castle and Calipto as the most likely winners based on form. I don't think the Irish form is up to much, and I don't really want to back Broughton coming up a hill because he looks all about speed. John Quinn enters two, but I've gone off Rutherglen because he has displayed an awkward head carriage on both his last two starts. I like Pearl Castle's breeding for this quick ground: he is by Montjeu out of a War Chant mare, and the way he galloped all the way to the line to win his Goodwood maiden over some classy flat horses marked him down as a good horse to me. He has been a revelation since his second start over hurdles, winning his last two at Doncaster. He is a big horse for his age, but if that doesn't hinder him, I think he is booked for a place at least here. If he is with the leaders turning for home, he won't want for stamina up the hill.
2:05 Vincent O´Brien County Handicap Hurdle Grade 3 Cl1 2m1f
Selections:
Deep Trouble 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 40/1 (Generally guaranteed)
Never Enough Time 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed) - Make sure to get paid five places on both bets
I've had Deep Trouble earmarked for this race since he won at Sandown, and the question is whether Leighton Aspell will ride him with balls of steel and produce him on the line, because he won't do a tap in front - in fact he's as likely to pull himself up or take a look at the crowd as actually try to win. I'm not being unkind to the horse, he has his own mind and no two ways about it, but I think he has loads of class and two miles on lightning quick ground is exactly the test for him.
Never Enough Time has improved no end on his last two starts in Ireland, and he is ridden again by Ger Fox, arguably Ireland's best 7lb claiming jockey at the moment. He is proven in these conditions, probably remains well handicapped, and seems to have everything in his favour to give another good account. With normal luck in running, he should go close and I believe he is still well handicapped.
2:40 Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Spa Novices´ Hurdle) Grade 1 Cl1 3m
Non Account Bet: Kings Palace to win @ 7/2 / 10/3 (Generally)
No bet here, as I do like Briar Hill but I have slight reservations about him on the ground. I do make this a match, but King's Palace has the better form in my view and he is 7/2 in places, whilst Briar Hill is 7/4. Those looking to get involved might back Pipe's horses on the basis of the prices and the fact that the selection is by King's Theatre, and more likely to enjoy the fast ground.
3:20 Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase Grade 1 Cl1 3m2f110y
Selection: Total of 1pt Combination Tricast on Bob's Worth, The Giant Bolster, Lord Windermere, Lyreen Legend @ Dividend
This is a race to watch for the most part, and it looks a decent renewal of jumping's most prestigious race. Time and time again Cheltenham form repeats itself, and the favourite is hard to get away from given his track record. I'm going to outlay a total of 1pt on a combination tricast with the other horses who appeal as most likely to run their race at this track. The Giant Bolster rarely runs badly here, and Lord Windermere and Lyreen Legend made up the 1-2 in last year's R.S.A. chase. There's a chance of a big payout for a small layout here and I'm happy to keep my stake very small.
4:00 CGA Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup Cl2 3m2f110y
Selection: Divine Intavention 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed)
Divine Intavention will like the fast ground, and he gets on well with Mark Wall, who is a tidy, decent amateur pilot. The selection has recently transferred to Martin Keighley, and I think he has improved for professional training. He has won two of his last three starts and has clearly been aimed at this race having finished second at 50/1 last year. He is worth a small win and each-way interest with a few of the Irish horses likely to find the ground against them.
4:40 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys´ Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m4f110y
Selection: Caid Du Berlais 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 10/1 (Boylesports, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Coral)
Paul Nicholls' hurdlers have run very well this week without winning, and I make Caid Du Berlais one of the bets of the meeting after his fast finishing second in the Fred Winter last season. He has run over fences a couple of times lately and I would suggest connections were keen to keep his mark around the OR143 level. The presence of the experienced Harry Derham is a bonus, and I think the selection will be very hard to keep out of the places.
5:15 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup Handicap Grade 3 Cl1 2m110y
Selections:
Raya Star 3pts win @ 10/1 (Generally guaranteed)
Anquetta 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 66/1 (Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 50/1 generally guaranteed) - Get 5 places where possible
Raya Star's form stacks up well, and Alan King's Novice Chasers have had an excellent week. Upon reflection, I would find it very difficult to criticise Choc Thornton's rides over the course of the festival and he has given most of his horses a good chance, being touched off in the Sun Alliance and the JLT. Raya Star makes loads of appeal in a weak division, touching double figure odds.
Bookmakers are taking a big chance pricing up a Nicky Henderson horse in this race at 50/1 and 66/1. Anquetta would be a "shock" winner but he travelled into this race really well last year on ground far too soft for him, before fading. He wants it like a road and I wouldn't read too much into jockey bookings - obviously the owner wants Sam to ride and I don't think Barry Geraghty will have had the choice between Anquetta and Thanks For That. We'll play each-way and win at huge odds.
Profit & loss: day: -21.00 / month: -30.65 / year: -16.45
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