Day one of a fantastic four day 2014 Cheltenham Festival, and as we've come to expect it's a mouthwatering card. Those who have joined us just for the festival will see we've laid out a large number of points, but remember 15pts of those are on ante post selections from our total ante post book of 20pts, which we more or less consider separate for totalling daily outlays. We'd like to wish everyone the very best of luck this week, enjoy the festival and hopefully the sun keeps shining!
1:30 Sky Bet Supreme Novices´ Hurdle Grade 1 Cl1 2m110y
Selection: Vaniteux 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 / 11/1 (Generally - use a bookmaker paying four places, or Hills who pay 5) - E/W 3rd
This is not a race in which we have a particularly good record, and I find it a hard race to call because a lot of it comes down to "vibes" on the day and how the young, inexperienced horses cope with the festival atmosphere. In saying that, I think there are enough reasons to oppose Irving and Vautour and Vaniteaux makes plenty of appeal to me. He wasn't scheduled to go to Cheltenham this year, but he worked so well last week that Nicky Henderson's hand was forced and Barry Geraghty has jumped ship from Josses Hill as a result. The selection is different to most Nicky Henderson Supreme horses in the sense that he settles quite well, and doesn't look like a horse who has had the gun put to his head in a big way in order to drill speed into him (a la a novice Binocular or My Tent Or Yours). He travels very well, but there is little doubt this horse stays really well at this trip, and a look at his Sandown win illustrates that. He had loads to do to beat a good horse of Paul Nicholls after the last flight, but he came into his own up the hill and won very easily in the end. You have to think Cheltenham will bring out the best in him as a result of that visual evidence. For me, coming down the hill and his jumping will be the potential problems. I would hope Geraghty can give him a nice trip around without putting his jumping under too much pressure, and start to make his challenge as they turn for home. If he is in with a chance coming up the hill, I would expect him to finish very, very strongly indeed and the opposition horses will need to be good 'uns to hold him off. I liked the style of his Doncaster win last time and although his Kempton run was a shocker in between his two wins, it was said the track didn't suit him at all. I like his sire, who unfortunately died after producing only a couple of crops, and I think his progeny will be successful over jumps from limited opportunities. I'm happy to get involved at a double figure price, make sure you get paid 4/5 places.
2:05 Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m
Already Advised: Dodging Bullets 5pts win @ 6/1 (Generally guaranteed)
Analysis reproduced below
Our third foray into the ante post markets for this year's festival comes in the Arkle Chase. If you had told me six months ago I'd be recommending this horse for the contest, I'd have laughed in your face. That said, Dodging Bullets has absolutely thrived for being sent over fences - he settles well, jumps very well, and sees out two miles strongly.
Many have the horse down as something of a "joke" horse, because he disappointed over hurdles after Christmas in 2013, but the horse wasn't right and he looks a completely different animal this season. I was particularly wary of his breeding, as I don't associate Dubawi as being a Cheltenham sire, but the horse has done everything asked of him this winter and has posted ratings that put him bang there in contention. His run behind Module on unsuitable ground last time was huge for a novice, he gave that horse 3lb and only just went down in a driving finish. Module is a good horse on heavy ground, and ran Somersby close in the Haldon Gold Cup earlier this season. I think that last run is about the strongest posted by a Novice Chaser this season and I expect the selection to be better at the festival. He has had a trouble free season and preparation, and seems to be peaking at the right time.
I have done a U-turn as regards the Irish form and I'm no longer convinced by it at all. Champagne Fever has done nothing in this discipline to suggest he should be 3/1 and connections seem to be struggling to get him right. Trifolium won the Irish Arkle, but Defy Logic burst and ran no race, and I don't think there was much in behind - I don't subscribe to the notion that Felix Yonger is a top class horse, because he earned his best rating when hammering Trifolium earlier this season - Trifolium pulled his race away that day and looked anything but ready. There is a suggestion Felix will be better on better ground at the festival, but I'm not so sure he has the quality to win and I have to question some of his ratings.
Rock On Ruby has not impressed me with his jumping and is a nine year old. Hinterland may go to the Champion Chase, I don't think Grandouet jumps well enough either. Valdez, to my mind, is the danger but I wasn't really impressed with his jumping at Doncaster and I feel that race fell apart a little bit. I'm not sure he has the class to win and his hurdle rating (a good pointer for this) would back that up.
All in all I think Dodging Bullets can win what looks a competitive but average renewal, and I think he'll go off shorter on the day, meaning the 6/1 now is worth taking.
2:40 Baylis & Harding Affordable Luxury Handicap Chase Grade 3 Cl1 3m110y
Selections:
Wrong Turn 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally guaranteed)
King Massini 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, Ladbrokes, Independents, guaranteed)
This doesn't look as strong a handicap as it usually is and there are quite a few of these I was happy to dismiss quickly enough. Wrong Turn has to be backed, though, off a mark of OR131 having got into the race late on when it looked a few days before hand like he would be balloted out. He reminds me a lot of the same trainer's Dun Doire in terms of his profile and run style, and he is probably going to be a difficult horse for the handicapper to get a handle on given he seems to win by small margins. I have to admit I'm a little puzzled as to why Ruby doesn't retain the ride, but Danny Mullins is capable and I'd hope he can rise to the big occasion.
King Massini has taken to fences like a duck to water and he is too big at 20/1. I like the way he came up the Cheltenham hill when he won here on his penultimate start, and although this is a step up in class his jumping is fast and proficient, and he seems to have tactical speed which is important in these big handicaps. He looks to have been somewhat ignored by oddsmakers because of his low profile connections, and Adam Wedge's presence in the plate. I think he would be 9/1 if he were trained by Johnjoe O'Neill. He looks a decent bet at the prices and we'll back both horses each-way and win.
3:20 Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy Grade 1 Cl1 2m110y
Already Advised: The New One 5pts each-way @ 3/1 (Maximum Bet) - E/W 3rd
Analysis reproduced below
If the Strikeline service has been guilty of anything at previous Cheltenham festivals, it is perhaps trying a little too hard to get short priced favourites beaten. Generally at Cheltenham, there are some very good value favourites and some less than good value favourites, and your starting point should really be sorting the wheat from the chaff with relation to the top of the market. I don't see a shock in this year's Champion Hurdle, and I am backing The New One to maximum each-way stakes with the odds very much in our favour in my view.
The bet is risk free in terms of the horse not turning up, as many firms are now Non Runner No Bet and we'll give them our business. This isn't a brave bet in terms of the price, but it's a clever one. Should our selection run into a place, we get 75% of our total stake back. We're getting paid at odds of 3/4 or 1.75 (with no commission) on the place part of the bet. I estimate than the selection will be sent off 15/8 on the day, possibly as co favourite with Hurricane Fly, if all goes to plan. I think seven to eight horses will turn up, and would suggest the horse's price for a place on the exchange (to place in the first three) come the off will be something like 7/20 or 1.35 (after commission is taken into account). So we're getting better than twice the price we should be on the place, and just over a point better on the win. Nothing wrong with that.
In terms of race analysis itself, I think the race is a fairly easy one to make a judgement on this year. For all Hurricane Fly is brilliant, he is ten, and each of his three RPR's posted this season have been inferior to anything he posted last season. Willie Mullins wasn't happy with how he worked before the Irish Champion Hurdle, and he duly posted an effort 11lb below last year's effort in the same race. That Our Conor and Jezki couldn't get past him, and Captain Cee Bee finished third, would suggest to me that the Irish challenge this year is not what it has been in the past.
I'm not too sure how Our Conor will train on at the top level. There was something Arazi-like about his performance in last year's Triumph, and I just feel he may not be able to reproduce that. We don't really know yet how the progeny of Jeremy are training on and perhaps he was a precocious four year old and may not reach the top level in open company - for every Kauto Star, there are many Teelin Stars. He hasn't done anything on the track this season to suggest he'll win a Champion Hurdle - ratings suggest he posted a 2lb inferior effort on his second run of the season than his first, in direct conflict to what people think - that he improved from his first effort. I think he ran a similar kind of race and I don't think he is good enough to trouble the top English hurdlers at the moment.
Which brings us to My Tent Or Yours and The New One. I feel the Christmas Hurdle will be the key trial for this race this year. The pair pulled any amount clear of their rivals and had a right set to, with Tony McCoy's experience and brilliance (he is brilliant at winning, and far more than just an enforcer) probably the difference between the two. I think The New One's superior staying power will win him the Champion. He is by King's Theatre and the image of him pulling right away from Zarkandar in the International Hurdle is one that really stuck in my mind. He has no issues travelling at speed, and as long as they go an even or better gallop, and Sam gives him a well thought out ride (he doesn't want to be in front showboating two out) then I think he can actually win this comfortably enough, possibly from My Tent Or Yours.
Annie Power, Un De Sceaux, Ptit Zig, Grumeti and Thousand Stars could all miss the race and in short, I don't think any of them are good enough to win it either way. No disrespect to Annie Power or Un De Sceaux, but I don't think they have scaled the heights required as of yet, and ratings would seem to confirm this.
This is our first maximum bet of 2014, and probably one of my bets of the festival.
4:00 OLBG Mares´ Hurdle (Registered As The David Nicholson Mares´ Hurdle Race) Grade 2 Cl1 2m4f
Selection: Cockney Sparrow 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 10/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, Paddy Power, Stan James, guaranteed)
I've been through this race with a fine tooth comb and unless there is a complete boilover (Uddy and Little King Robin being boilover candidates) I think there is only one mare with a realistic chance of beating the favourite Quevega. John Quinn is a master trainer of hurdlers, and the fact that he has taken the trouble to book A.P. McCoy to ride his star mare Cockney Sparrow would suggest to me he is very serious about winning this and not content merely to chase Quevega up the hill. The selection has only had eight hurdles starts, and a second in the Fighting Fifth behind My Tent Or Yours was probably the highlight of those. That form puts her in with a real chance of at least giving the favourite a race here. Quevega didn't achieve much when winning this last year and the form looks very shaky. Cockney Sparrow's ability to stay needs to be taken on trust here, and she may fade up the hill, but she did win over 1m 5 1/2f at a testing Ayr track on the flat, and they might not go a breakneck pace in this race. At double figures, I'm happy to back her each-way.
4:40 Terry Biddlecombe National Hunt Chase Amateur Riders´ Novices´ Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 4m
Non account bet: Shutthefrontdoor to win @ 7/2
Not a betting race for me, but I like the claims of the favourite and he appeals as a win selection for those who want to have an interest.
5:15 Rewards4Racing Novices´ Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m4f110y
Non Account bet: Grandad's Horse each-way @ 66/1 (Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, 50/1 Ladbrokes, all guaranteed)
This looks a bit of a minefield, and I won't be recommending a selection here. For those who want an interest, I thought Grandad's Horse was far too big at anything 50/1 or better and might be worth a small each-way interest.
Profit & loss: day: -16.50 / month: +18.10 / year: +32.30
No comments:
Post a Comment