Ballyalton ran second for us at 20/1 in the Neptune yesterday and that's about as good as it got. Handiwork was hampered twice and stayed on well to finish ninth, and we correctly called it that the Irish staying novice chasers were probably inferior to the English, but Le Bec came down when going well and Corrin Wood probably went off too fast and was drunk halfway through the race. Festivals are nuts touch to make a profit on, and they don't come harder than Cheltenham, but it's important to realise that our selections are generally performing above market expectation and we only need one or two winners to make it a profitable week. We're only halfway through yet, and in these cases I always think of 2008, when I went off Tidal Bay in the Arkle because common opinion suggested he didn't jump well enough. He drifted right out to 8/1 in places having been as short as 5/2 in ante post betting if I recall correctly, and I didn't bet him. He bolted up and I had a nightmare of a festival, day 2 was merged into day three due to high winds which made the task impossible, and by the time Refinement was short headed on the Friday, I was without a winner and considering the prospect of beans on toast for dinner, for a fortnight. In those days the County Hurdle was the last race of the festival, and I had long fancied Silver Jaro, who just held on from the fast finishing favourite Psycho, at 50/1, and I ended the festival well in profit.
Enough babble, on to today:
1:30 JLT Novices´ Chase (Registered As The Golden Miller Novices´ Chase) Grade 1 Cl1 2m4f
Selection: Sizing Gold 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 12/1 generally guaranteed)
This is not a good race, and I'll be a shade disappointed if one of the U.K. triumvirate of Wonderful Charm / Oscar Whisky / Taquin De Seuil win a Grade 1 novice. I don't think they are proper Grade 1 class and they have essentially been beating each other in small fields this past winter. I think Felix Yonger is flattered by his rating, it was achieved by beating an unfit Trifolium (well beaten in the Arkle) and he looks sorth opposing too. Sizing Gold sticks out a mile for me here. Henry De Bromhead really rates the horse, and this excellent jumper has been crying out for better ground in my view. He avoided much of the soft ground, I'll beat you / you beat me stuff in Ireland over the winter and after two chase starts has a win and a non-staying effort behind Foxrock to his name. Course and distance should be ideal for him, and I think he is the bet here at 12/1+. He looks potentially high class to me, and although there is a risk that comes with backing potential over proven form, I am willing to take the chance at the prices. Uxizandre is overpriced at 40/1 and is worth a saver at that price.
2:05 Pertemps Network Final (A Handicap Hurdle) (Listed Race) Cl1 3m
Selection: Uncle Jimmy 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 22/1 (Bet 365, 5 places, 20/1 generally 5 places, generally guaranteed)
I really like Uncle Jimmy here. He looks as if good ground will bring out more improvement in him, and he stays very well, which is something you need to do to win this race. He has handicap experience, and his rider Thomas Cheeseman is daylight robbery for the 7lb that he claims. Any horse winning one of these big field handicaps needs a lot of luck in running, and provided the selection gets that look I think 20/1+ is too big for him to run in the first five. He looks very unexposed to me, and I would put him at 14/1 in my book. We're getting 5/1+ on the selection to run in the first five, and I'll happily take those odds.
2:40 Ryanair Chase (Registered As The Festival Trophy Chase) Grade 1 Cl1 2m5f
Selection: Rajdhani Express 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, Ladbrokes, guaranteed) - E/W 3rd
This is a poor grade 1, and does illustrate how the festival has lost just a shade of its competitiveness in some divisions having been extended to four days. I can see reasons why there might be a shock here. Dynaste throws in the odd stinker, Benefficient might not like it this quick, Al Ferof hasn't looked the same since his injury, and Menorah didn't run to form in last year's renewal. It is unlikely all four will underperform, but it could happen: this has tended to be a brutal tough race in recent years; Riverside Theatre wasn't the same after winning it two years ago and Cue Card hasn't made it back to this year's festival after setting fast fractions last year and perhaps bottoming himself. I think they'll go quick here and it might well set up for the selection to run on late in the day. He is by Presenting, and will love this fast ground. He routinely runs personal bests at this track, represents a trainer in good form, and has had only eight starts over fences. I think the selection is open to further improvement and at 25/1, he looks the speculative each-way call here.
3:20 Ladbrokes World Hurdle Grade 1 Cl1 3m
Selection: At Fisher's Cross 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 10/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, Ladbrokes, guaranteed) - E/W 3rd
Annie Power is priced up as if she will definitely stay here, and as a result I can't back her. Win or lose she is no value at the prices and I personally don't think this was the right race for her (the mares race was the place to go, with a Champion Hurdle tilt next year, would be my two cents, forgetting yard politics). I want to oppose Big Buck's too, as an eleven year old he will do very well to regain his staying crown. At Fisher's Cross to me looks a no brain each-way selection at the prices. He hasn't had a good season so far, but unlike many of these he has been trained with this race in mind from day one, and he did spring back to life last time out behind Knockara Beau. His trainer didn't have a good winter - many of her horses were bang out of form - but they've come good at the right time and she trained the Sun Alliance Chase winner yesterday. The selection has no stamina doubts, has the Champion jockey on board, and in my view if he comes on 10lb for his last start (which I think is achievable) he will be fighting out the finish.
4:00 Byrne Group Plate (A Handicap Chase) Grade 3 Cl1 2m4f
Non Account Bet: Third Intention each-way @ 12/1 / 10/1 (Generally guaranteed)
Not a betting race for me, but Third Intention will love the ground and if you want to have an interest, back him each-way. I'm not 100% sure he gets up the hill, Betfair users would do well to trade out at something like 1.56 in running to lock in some profit.
4:40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Amateur Riders) Cl2 3m1f110y
Selection: Indian Castle 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 6/1 /11/2 (Generally guaranteed - get 5 places paid)
I like Indian Castle's form with Annacotty, and the step up to a staying trip and better ground ought to bring about further improvement to this son of Dr. Massini. The selection looks a model for the race, and the booking of the excellent Derek O'Connor is a big positive. Many bookmakers will pay five places on each-way bets here and I think that's great value if you can get 11/2+. I don't think this is a massively strong handicap; the selection looks very progressive and I think he could be heavily backed as the day goes on. Take the early price, and with normal luck in running I think we'll get our stake back at the very least.
Profit & loss: day: -7.75 / month: -9.65 / year: +4.55
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