We probably should have landed a maximum bet yesterday, we had a poor turn of luck when The New One was completely stopped in his tracks by Our Conor and it is a measure of the horse's ability and the jockeys calmness that he was allowed to find his way back into the race and get our each-way money. We also collected each-way from Vaniteaux, but we got no run in the handicaps and Dodging Bullets was beaten fair and square. Could have been better, could have been worse, thoughts with the connections of Our Conor who suffered a bad fall and had to be euthanized.
1:30 Neptune Investment Management Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As Baring Bingham Novices´ Hurdle) Grade 1 Cl1 2m5f
Selections:
Lieutenant Colonel 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, Coral, William Hill)
Ballyalton 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 22/1 (Skybet, guaranteed, 20/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd
I've wanted to take on Faugheen all year and I certainly am not put off given he looks so short at 11/8 this morning. Lieutenant Colonel should improve for the step up in trip and better ground being by Kayf Tara, and his form ties in with that of Vautour, who looked an absolute beast when winning the Supreme yesterday (you won't often hear me using phrases from the Punters Book of Hyperbole). The selection is trained by a man who knows a festival horse when he sees one and I think he is good each-way value at 14/1.
Ballyalton has some good English form and he is another I feel will improve for the step up in trip and the kind of test this race presents. He will love the ground, and he came up the hill really well when he won here before Christmas. I don't think the odds reflect his ability, he hasn't got a whole pile to find on figures with the market principals and I think this is a case of who turns up best on the day. I'm not the jockey's biggest fan but he does know the horse, and I do prefer him riding over hurdles more than fences.
2:05 RSA Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 3m110y
Selections:
Corrin Wood 3pts win @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed)
Le Bec 3pts win @ 14/1 (Bet 365, Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Bet Victor, Ladbrokes, guaranteed)
I think this is a very average renewal of the R.S.A. Chase, but I am of the opinion that the English form has been better than the Irish. Corrin Wood simply has to be included, because he jumps like an absolute stage and stays really strongly. He could have a lot of these in trouble by half way, but the caveat is that he is unproven on the ground and has jumped a little out to his right in the past. He isn't quite Captain Chris, but he did tend just to lean out at Warwick and that could be a problem here. I have to back him, though, because if he does act at this track, this test is tailor made for him. He gained lengths in the air on each of his last two chase starts and is the best jumper I've seen of any novice this season. As a result he gets the nod. Spare a thought for Jason Maguire, who misses the ride and the festival after an awful fall at Stratford on Monday; in a strange twist of fate Captain Chris's regular pilot Richard Johnson takes the spare and he is well capable of riding festival winners.
2:40 Coral Cup (A Handicap Hurdle) Grade 3 Cl1 2m5f
Selections:
Vendor 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed- get 5 places paid with most bookmakers)
Meister Eckhart 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Generally guaranteed - get 5 places paid with most bookmakers)
Alan King had a 1-2 in this race last year and clearly targets it, and I'm recommending both his representatives a year on as much because I fancy their chances as that the stable target the race. Vendor was really impressive at Newbury in late October and I notebooked him immediately for one of the big handicaps at this festival. He doesn't take much racing and seems to go well fresh, it is interesting that he was put away until February and had a spin in the Betfair Hurdle to put him right for this. I think he could be the best handicapped horse in the race, and he is the best of the market leaders in my view.
Meister Eckhart ran a fine race to finish second in this last season, doing much the best of those to race on a strong pace. I love this type of bet, because it is plain as day this race has been the horse's target all season long and he is very likely to show his best form over a course and distance that suits him well. Whether he is well handicapped or not is another issue - he is 6lbs higher than last year - but I think the ground will suit him well and a more patient ride should see him get involved at the business end.
3:20 BetVictor Queen Mother Champion Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m
Advised Ante Post: Special Tiara 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 40/1 (Generally)
Analysis reproduced below.
An intriguing renewal of this contest. The race obviously hinges around Sprinter Sacre, who looked invincible until he was pulled up on his seasonal debut at Kempton. He looks likely to recover and show up for the big gig, but his heart condition throws up enough "what if's" to make this a betting race, particularly at this stage.
Quality opposition to the favourite looks thin on the ground. Sire De Grugy looks very short for a spring festival, where he is unlikely to get his favoured soft surface. Benefficient, Hidden Cyclone, Captain Conan, Somersby, Arvika Ligeonniere, Kid Cassidy, Sizing Europe, and Twinlight - the next eight in the current betting - have some sort of doubt about their participation, although some are more likely than others, and I don't think any of them necessarily have the class to win the race even if Sprinter Sacre doesn't perform to his best.
I actually can't believe there is a progressive, Grade 1 winning chaser with a perfect profile for this race trading at odds as big as 40/1. There was no fluke about Special Tiara's Aintree Grade 1 Novice win, and although the form has to be questioned, they went a strong pace and he had no problem with the step up to Grade 1 company, on what was only his fourth start over fences. This is an out and out spring horse who wants the ground as fast as possible, so his Punchestown run next time out is readily excused given the heavy underfoot conditions. He unseated on his seasonal debut, but looked none the worse at Cheltenham last time out. He ran a cracker in third behind Kid Cassidy and Sire De Grugy on ground described as good, but I think there was plenty of juice in it and he set a really strong pace for the conditions. He was going every bit as well as Sire De Grugy on the home turn, but a tired jump at two out sealed his fate, before he stayed on again in the manner of a horse who badly needed the run. He has posted an RPR of 161 on both occasions he has run on good ground over fences, and with just seven starts behind him you would expect he will improve again for a bit more experience, good ground, and the spring sunshine on his back. He is definitely being trained for the race by Henry De Bromhead, who has won it before with Sizing Europe. De Bromhead issued this bulletin last week:
“The Champion Chase is a race we are very much looking at for Special Tiara. We were delighted with his run at Cheltenham where the ground there was still a little bit soft for him. He has been in great form since then and we were going to run him at Christmas, but the ground went against him everywhere, so we decided to wait. He’s in the Clarence House Chase at Ascot next Saturday (January 18th) and he might go there depending on ground or otherwise he will run in the Tied Cottage Chase at Punchestown at the beginning of February.”
The ground has already gone against the horse for Ascot, but I'm quite happy with that as I'd rather see him run in the Tied Cottage. The trip over to Ascot would be tough enough, and I wouldn't like to see him bottomed on a track that doesn't suit some horses. A nice prep around Punchestown is fine, and I'll be happy enough even if he gets beaten on soft / heavy ground, although I'd be keener if it dried up somewhat by then, and he bolted up. Clients have the option of taking 40/1, or the 33/1 Non Runner No Bet available with a few firms. Personally, I think the horse is a likely runner so I have played at the 40/1 with no concession. I'd be hopeful that, if the selection's preparation goes well, we'll have a very good each-way bet on our hands come March.
4:00 Glenfarclas Handicap Chase (A Cross Country Chase) Cl2 3m7f
Non account bet: Star Neuville to win @ 15/2 (Bet 365, Coral, guaranteed, 7/1 generally guaranteed)
No interest for us in this race, but I believe Star Neuville has taken very well to banks and he looks well handicapped too. He is a decent bet at 7/1+ for those looking to get involved.
4:40 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Grade 3 Cl1 2m110y
Selection: Handiwork 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 40/1 (Generally guaranteed)
9/1 the field tells it's own story here. I think Handiwork is too big at 40/1 for Steve Gollings with Sam Twiston-Davies in the plate. I think the son of Motivator might be better on spring ground, and it is to his credit that he has performed so well this winter on soft. He isn't over big, but is very hearty and really tries - his defeat of Royal Skies in December with Pearl Castle back in third was particularly encouraging in that regard, because the winner got first run on him and conditions were awful - it would be easy for a four year old hurdler to chuck in the towel. He stays very well, the hill will be absolutely no problem to him, and if he does enjoy the quicker ground I can see him thereabouts at the finish. A handicap mark of OR130 looks fair to me based on what he has achieved so far and he appeals enough at the prices to back each-way and win even though the race is a tough one to decipher.
5:15 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (A Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race) Grade 1 Cl1 2m110y
Non Account Bet: Shaneshill to win @ 7/1 (Generally guaranteed)
No interest in betting in what looks a strong bumper, but Shaneshill looks the right type for the race, has the best jockey, and the ground is right for the son of King's Theatre.
Profit & loss: day: -20.00 / month: -1.90 / year: +12.30
No comments:
Post a Comment