Friday 21st March 2014

Three selections for this evening.

6.05 Wolverhampton Lacey 5pts win @ 11/2 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 5/1 generally guaranteed)

Divea doesn't strike me as the type who is nailed on to improve on her last run, because she has been difficult to train judged on the number of runs she has had, and she might have been ready to go last time out when she won impressively. That wasn't a great race and the market suggested she was fit and ready to win. If there are chinks in her armour, Lacey might be the one to expose them. He is by Rail Link, whose progeny have an excellent record on polytrack, and he ran well in a better contest last time out when he looked a bit ring rusty and finished well for third behind Singzak off the back of a break. His stable had a similar stayer, Lineman, win off the back of a similar prep a few weeks back and I'd expect Lacey to be cherry ripe this evening. He makes plenty of appeal at the prices and looks the bet of the evening.

6.35 Wolverhampton Tidal Beauty 3pts win @ 12/1 (Paddy Power, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 11/1 Skybet, BF Sportsbook, guaranteed)

This filly has shown little on the book, but she ran really well to a point last time out when showing plenty of toe over a mile at Kempton, tugging her jockey's arms out. She is rated just OR40 now, but connections have dropped her back to six furlongs and applied a hood for the first time, which might help her settle down. Luke Morris picks up the ride as a spare, and I can't see any reason why connections won't be trying given her low rating - she'll need to put it all together soon if they are to persevere off such a low mark. She looks physically scopey, and if the change off trip and application of headgear work the oracle, she could be in with a shout. Like our last bet, this is a bit "boom or bust" and we'll stick to a small win only bet as such.

7.35 Wolverhampton Bapak Chinta 3pts win @ 12/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Coral, William Hill, guaranteed)

I've alluded in the past to the fact that these Speightstown progeny are sometimes best caught fresh - they tend to run on their nerves and are best at five or six furlongs. Bapak Chinta has fallen a long way in the weights since his Norfolk Stakes triumph in 2011, and he hasn't shown much in the interim. He may just have been a two year old, but it is interesting these connections have persevered and he is very much bred to enjoy artificial surfaces. I find Amy Ryan an unusual booking given the stable have Paul Mulrennan at the track too - I think perhaps she may have done some work with the horse at home and her Dad has given her the ride as a result. She hasn't had many opportunities this winter (has been helping her boyfriend Brian Toomey recuperate from his fall), but she is very capable on her day and I'd say it is in the interests of all concerned that this horse runs well this evening. This is another boom or bust pick, and a small win bet is the advice as such.

Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: -29.15 / year: -14.95