4.40 Lingfield Fair Value 5pts win @ 6/1 (Generally guaranteed)
Fair Value hasn't won since June 2012, but her attitude can't be faulted and she has kept much better company than this in the interim. She looked the winner of the Epsom Dash last year before being collared late by Duke Of Firenze, and no doubt connections are eyeing a similar early season campaign this time around. She has already had a run, which is a big plus as it gives her a probable advantage over these, and she ran quite well behind Gregori on that occasion when given a hold up ride by Frankie Dettori which isn't what she usually requires. She is in stall eight here and I would hope George Baker will use her speed from the stalls to get a prominent sit. There isn't a huge amount of early speed for a five furlong sprint here so stall eight of ten isn't as cumbersome as is could be. This is a good piece of placement, with the mare giving away weight in a 0-85 against inferior opposition, and with Baker in the plate a minimal amount of lead in the saddle cloth. Picansort is 1lb better off for a half length beating by Fair Value last time they met, but the selection didn't look like being headed by him and is also entitled to come on for that run. With Picansort trading 7/2 and the selection almost twice that price, the selection seems aptly named.
Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -66.15 / year: -51.95
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